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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

1. [verwijderd] 2 april 2006 16:17

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   Russische minister vreest raffinage crisis
   
   Door te lage investeringen in de raffinagesector van Rusland is een crisis nabij volgens Viktor Khristenko, de Russische minister van industrie en energie. Het zal onmogelijk zijn om aan de toekomstige vraag naar olieproducten te voldoen.
   
   De raffinagesector in Rusland groeit momenteel nog maar dat zal snel ophouden. De raffinaderijen zijn verouderd en staan op onhandige locaties, de transportkosten zijn hoog en de kwaliteit van de producten is laag. Hierdoor worden Russiche olieproducten in Europa meestal verkocht als ruwe materialen die secundaire verwerking nodig hebben.
   
   Bron: RIA Novosti
   
   www.peakoil.nl/pivot/entry.php?id=644...
2. [verwijderd] 2 april 2006 18:13

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   Ook geen kleine jongen die Yamani. En als insider kan hij het weten hoe lang er nog olie is (in het Midden-Oosten).
   vr.gr. duro
   
   INTERNATIONAL
   
   
   
   Yamani sees ‘end of the oil era’ and hydrogen future
   
   Posted online: Friday, March 24, 2006 at 0000 hours IST
   
   
   MARCH 23 : Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani, the former Saudi oil minister, said the main source of energy in the future will be hydrogen, causing ‘‘the end of the oil era.’’
   The high price of oil is causing consuming nations to more rapidly develop alternative energy sources, Yamani said today in London, where he is chairing a conference for the Centre for Global Energy Studies, which he founded.
   
   ‘‘The price will remain high for some time until the major oil consumers will be able to be independent from oil, especially from the Gulf region,’’ he said. ‘‘We have seen the future: The main source of energy will be hydrogen. It will be the end of the oil era.’’
   
   Yamani was Saudi Arabia’s oil minister from 1962 to 1986. The conference, to discuss geopolitics and the future of energy, is being attended by natural resources ministers and other officials from countries including the U.K., Brazil, Canada and Mexico, as well as representatives of major oil companies including BP Plc and Kuwait Petroleum Corp.Yamani said political conflicts could cause the price of oil to go higher, leading to a global economic decline.
   
   —Bloomberg
   
   
3. [verwijderd] 3 april 2006 13:04

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   OPEC can't stop price rise
   
   OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, is unable to stop crude prices from reaching US$70 (HK$546) a barrel as geopolitical crises in member states Nigeria, Iraq and Iran are driving up oil prices, Qatar's oil minister said.
   
   Monday, April 03, 2006
   
   OPEC, which pumps 40 percent of the world's oil, is unable to stop crude prices from reaching US$70 (HK$546) a barrel as geopolitical crises in member states Nigeria, Iraq and Iran are driving up oil prices, Qatar's oil minister said.
   
   "We are doing all we can to meet demand but prices are rising because of Iran, Nigeria and Iraq," Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said Sunday in Doha, Qatar.
   
   "Even if prices reach US$70 a barrel, what can OPEC do?"
   
   Shipments of crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably fall 0.3 percent to 24.88 million barrels a day in the four weeks to April 8, compared with the previous four weeks, because of a decline in production from the group, the consulting company Oil Movements said in a report on March 23.
   
   Crude oil for May delivery fell 52 US cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at US$66.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. It was the largest drop since March 20. Crude closed Thursday at US$67.15 a barrel, the highest since January 31. Prices are 20 percent higher than a year ago.
   
   "International economies can absorb US$60 oil," said the oil minister of Qatar. "I don't believe there's a shortage in the market as more than one million barrels a day are going into inventories," al-Attiyah said.
   
   Energy ministers from the Group of Eight nations focused on ensuring fuel supplies, the theme of Russian president Vladimir Putin's chairmanship of the group, during their talks in Moscow on March 16.
   
   With oil costing more than US$60 a barrel, G8 ministers also discussed development of alternative energy sources such as nuclear power, a competing energy source OPEC officials have previously criticized as potentially unsafe.
   
   Oil prices still trading near record levels may lead to a decline in demand for hydrocarbons as consumers look toward alternative energy supplies, the chief executive of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil said Sunday.
   
   "Prices should be between US$45 and US$55 a barrel," Yousef Omair bin Yousef said on the sidelines of a signing ceremony for a new chemicals plant in Abu Dhabi.
   
   Prices are presently "too high" and "could harm the market further down the line through the development of alternative fuels," he said.
   
   Crude closed at a record US$69.81 a barrel on August 30, 2005. BLOOMBERG
4. [verwijderd] 5 april 2006 17:08

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   Onzekerheid troef dus...
   
   RPT-ANALYSIS-Norway sets Arctic oil plan - boom or gloom?
   
   By Alister Doyle
   
   OSLO, March 31 (Reuters) - Norway set rules for oil and gas exploration in the Barents Sea on Friday amid major uncertainty about whether the pristine Norwegian Arctic will mean boom or gloom for oil firms.
   
   The U.S. Geological Survey has suggested that 25 percent of the world's undiscovered petroleum resources could be in the Arctic. But some experts say oil may have leaked from the Barents, off the northern tip of Europe, millions of years ago.
   
   "So far we've drilled 65 wells in an area the size of the North Sea," Norwegian Oil and Energy Minister Odd Roger Enoksen told a news conference of potential resources in the Barents. "It will take a long time before we know what's in this region."
   
   Further south off Norway, oil companies have drilled about 1,000 wells since 1967, helping make the Nordic nation the world's number three oil exporter with daily output of about 2.5 million barrels per day.
   
   Trying to balance oil firms' drive to explore the Arctic against opposition from environmentalists and the fisheries industry, the government said it will allow Barents drilling except near coasts and the fringes of the polar ice until 2010.
   
   The 65 Barents Sea wells include two significant finds -- Statoil's (STL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) Snoehvit gas field with reserves of 160 billion cubic metres of gas and Eni SPA's (ENI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) Goliat oilfield with an estimated 250 million barrels of oil.
   
   Snoehvit will start production in 2007. No decision has been made on developing Goliat. The Russian Arctic sector of the Barents includes Gazprom's Shtokman gas field, one of the world's biggest with an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic metres.
   
   But some experts say that vast geological shifts linked to a widening of the North Atlantic 30-40 million years ago, when Greenland moved westwards, may have released much of the oil and gas trapped in strata off north Norway.
   
   GEOLOGY?
   
   "Tectonic activity makes the Barents a higher risk area than in the North Sea," Kjell Oygard of Norway's Sintef independent industrial research group told Reuters.
   
   His study said humans may be millions of years too late to get rich from Barents oil. Still, he said there were some promising areas.
   
   Norwegian companies have long pushed for greater access to the Barents Sea, hoping it will be a new frontier that will help them keep up output as fields run dry further south and finds become scarce.
   
   But the state-run Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, which oversees drilling off Norway, reckons that undiscovered resources there are slightly less than those still to be found in either the North Sea or the Norwegian Sea.
   
   It reckons that undiscovered reserves off Norway total 3.4 billion cubic metres of oil equivalents -- 1.19 billion in the North Sea, 1.22 billion in the Norwegian Sea and 0.99 billion in the Barents Sea.
   
   The estimate for the Barents Sea represents less than four years of Norway's current oil and gas output, seen at 260 million cubic metres for 2006.
   
   Development costs are also likely to be high in the Arctic, a brake to exploration even when oil prices are at $66 a barrel.
   
   Norway says it will impose tough environmental demands on oil companies. The Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska in 1989 showed that oil breaks down more slowly in the chill Arctic.
   
   In the 65 wells drilled in the Norwegian part of the Barents Sea, oil companies have struck gas in six or seven wells around the Snoehvit field. There have also been another 13 finds, most of them non-commercial.
   
   By contrast, Norway's oil age is widely reckoned to have begun with the discovery of the giant Ekofisk field in the 33rd well drilled in the North Sea in 1969.
   
   But in 1967, the company that is now ExxonMobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) found oil in the second well ever drilled in the North Sea, according to Eric Mathiesen at the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
   
   That well was judged uncommercial at the time but is now the 110,000 barrels per day Balder oilfield.
   
   © Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
   
   today.reuters.com/business/newsarticl...
   
   
5. [verwijderd] 6 april 2006 10:09

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   Lagen we onlangs nog wakker van de hoge olieprijzen, vandaag de dag schuiven we die net zo gemakkelijk opzij. Want we zijn in een euforie. Het kan niet stuk! Of toch misschien? Time will tell en misschien eerder dan verwacht.
   vr.gr. duro
   
   Oil rises on gasoline supply dip
   Crude prices jumps above $67 after inventory report shows surprising drop in gas, distillate stockpiles and rise in oil stocks.
   By Jessica Seid, CNNMoney.com staff writer
   April 5, 2006: 3:16 PM EDT
   
   NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Oil prices rose Wednesday after a government report revealed a bigger-than-expected increase in crude stockpiles but a bigger-than-expected drop in inventories of gasoline and distillates used for heating oil.
   
   U.S. light sweet crude for May delivery gained 84 cents to $67.07 a barrel after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its report.
   
   Crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended March 31, the government said, versus forecasts for a rise of 1.1 million barrels, according to a survey of analysts conducted by Reuters.
   
   Crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and are at the highest level since the week ending April 9, 1999.
   
   "Refinery utilization was lower than everyone expected, which caused (gas and distillate) inventories to drop," Brian Kuzma, energy analyst at RBC told CNNMoney.com.
   
   But Kuzma said he didn't expect the report to "have much impact on the future impact on crude or related products."
   
   Several oil refineries are still not fully operational due to damage from last year's hurricanes, but other refineries are expected to be down for maintenance in April after running full throttle longer than normal to make up for petroleum product output disrupted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
   
   These shutdowns are expected to dip into gasoline inventories as motor fuel demand picks up during the busy driving season.
   
   "With gasoline inventories typically increasing by about 3 million barrels in April, a significant draw this month could represent a dramatic drop compared to average levels," the EIA said in its weekly review of the oil market.
   
   Gasoline inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper end of the average range. Gasoline inventories were expected to fall by 1.6 million barrels, according to a Reuters survey.
   
   U.S. gasoline stocks have declined for five weeks in a row, shrinking 14.1 million barrels during the period.
   
   Falling gasoline inventories put upward pressure on pump prices, which soared 9 cents over the last week to a national average of $2.59 a gallon, the agency said.
   
   The EIA said if the hurricane-damaged refineries come back online fully this month, then gasoline inventories might not be drawn down as much.
   
   Inventories of distillate fuel used for heating fell 2.6 million barrels last week, but remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Reuters reported that distillates were expected by analysts to drop by 1.6 million barrels.
   
   -- from staff and wire reports
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 6 april 2006 17:18

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   COP
   OXY
   MRO
   
   welke zou ik kopen? wie van de drie?
7. [verwijderd] 6 april 2006 17:22

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   quote:

   camz schreef:

   COP
   OXY
   MRO
   
   welke zou ik kopen? wie van de drie?
   

   Geen van die drie.
   Als je gelooft in een blijvend hoge olieprijs, stap dan in teerzand. Dat rendeert meer.
8. [verwijderd] 6 april 2006 17:26

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   quote:

   postzak schreef:

   [quote=camz]
   COP
   OXY
   MRO
   
   welke zou ik kopen? wie van de drie?
   [/quote]
   
   Geen van die drie.
   Als je gelooft in een blijvend hoge olieprijs, stap dan in teerzand. Dat rendeert meer.
   

   wat is dan het 'ultieme' teerzand fonds die jij zou aanraden? ;)
9. [verwijderd] 6 april 2006 17:30

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   quote:

   camz schreef:

   [quote=postzak]
   [quote=camz]
   COP
   OXY
   MRO
   
   welke zou ik kopen? wie van de drie?
   [/quote]
   
   Geen van die drie.
   Als je gelooft in een blijvend hoge olieprijs, stap dan in teerzand. Dat rendeert meer.
   [/quote]
   
   wat is dan het 'ultieme' teerzand fonds die jij zou aanraden? ;)
   

   Canadian Oil Sands Trust:
   finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=COS-UN.TO&t=...
   
   Wel op z'n all time high, dus of je nu moet instappen is de vraag.
   Je kunt gokken op een doorbraak van de olieprijs (door de $ 70 heen). Als dat gebeurt dan schiet COS verder omhoog. Vindt er een correctie plaats dan krijgt COS rake klappen...
   Gr Postzak
10. [verwijderd] 7 april 2006 11:08

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    Oil retreats on hope for Nigeria output return
    Fri Apr 7, 2006 4:16 AM EDT
    
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil fell more than half a dollar on Friday on hopes for a recovery in slashed Nigerian output, but prices stayed above $67 after a large drop in U.S. gasoline stocks stoked worries about summer supplies.
    
    U.S. crude oil futures <CLc1> traded 64 cents down at $67.30 a barrel by 0806 GMT, after gaining 87 cents on Thursday to the highest settlement since January 30. London Brent crude <LCOc1> traded 56 cents lower at $67.28 after hitting a seven-month high on Thursday.
    
    Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote) is hopeful it can soon review its 120,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Nigerian EA oilfield, shut since February after militant attacks, its exploration and production chief Malcolm Brinded said on Friday.
    
    "The market looks overbought and there's a little profit-taking," said a dealer at a bank in New York. "But I don't expect the Nigerian field to return any time soon."
    
    Brinded told reporters in Paris that a recent meeting between Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and community leaders from the oil-producing Niger Delta region had left him optimistic for a solution of the conflict.
    
    Nigeria's oil minister Edmund Daukoru said he hoped the EA oilfield will be producing by early next week, though Shell's Brinded did not give any potential restart date.
    
    The oil major, with 455,000-bpd of its oil output still closed by attacks, has said repeatedly it will not begin repairs and clean-up work until it is safe to do so.
    
    "The continuing dispute over oil in Nigeria has provided further support despite ample crude inventory levels in the U.S.," said JPMorgan in a report. "The market is more bullish on products as refineries are also undergoing maintenance."
    
    Nigeria is a key supplier of gasoline-rich light crude to western and eastern markets, where demand for the auto fuel soars in the northern hemisphere's summer as drivers take to the roads.
    
    Prices were given a boost mid-week by U.S. government data showing a larger than expected 4.4 million-barrel drop in gasoline stocks after refinery maintenance, the fifth week of draws, despite bulging U.S crude stockpiles on high OPEC output.
    
    The International Energy Agency's (IEA) chief Claude Mandil said on Friday a renewed price surge did not mean a shortage of oil, pointing to U.S. gasoline stocks above a five-year average.
    
    OPEC crude producer the United Arab Emirates said the cartel was powerless to bring down prices, which have climbed 10 percent this year due to supply disruptions and strong fund buying.
    
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said gasoline inventories could fall sharply by the end of April if a large proportion of U.S. refining capacity undergoes maintenance, while traders worry new specifications could cause shortages.
    
    Oil prices have also been buoyed by geopolitical disputes.
    
    The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Thursday the UN Security Council could give Iran only two chances to curb its nuclear program before imposing sanctions. Traders fear any sanctions could lead Tehran to disrupt oil supplies.
    
    Investment fund buying has also driven commodities markets higher this week. Copper set a new record on Friday <TOP/MTL> while gold topped $600 an ounce for the first time since 1981 on Thursday.
    
    ca.today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle...
12. faites-vos-jeux 8 april 2006 19:50

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    Citigroup 7 april, "European oils" nog steeds/weer interessant:
    
    We argue that the near-term risk-reward for the sector has again turned bullish, with
    the sector’s 16% relative underperformance, and 27% discount to the market being the
    potential prize on offer from a momentum-led rebound in the sector
    Our Buy-rated stocks in the European integrated oil group are Total (1L, t.p. €245), BP
    (1L, t.p.710p), Eni (1M, t.p. €26.5) and Statoil (1L, t.p. NKr 200)
    
    onze RD Shell krijgt een 2L rating, wat op zich redelijk goed is (een zwakke koop en low risk), maar het commentaar klinkt niet zo flateus voor de hoeksteen van de NL beurs:
    Volume growth is anaemic, margins under pressure from rising costs.
    Weak reserve position and unlevered b/s suggests acquisition risk
    • High risk of development cost overruns/delays – evidenced by Sak II
    • High capex focused on the upstream, will take time to see benefits and in mean time puts pressure on returns
    • Near term risk of further volume slippage and higher capex
13. [verwijderd] 8 april 2006 20:44

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    Hugo Chavez Makes His Move
    By Robert Aronen
    April 5, 2006
    
    Hugo Chavez is setting the stage for the next chapter in world oil history. In a Monday night interview with the BBC, he indicated that he wants Venezuela to take the lead in the OPEC cartel. Chavez is planning to propose that OPEC members increase their long-term oil target price to $50 per barrel. At this price, a portion of Venezuela's Orinoco Tar Sands become economically viable, and Venezuela can officially increase its proven reserves to 312 billion barrels -- 50 billion barrels more than Saudi Arabia.
    
    www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/com...
    
    Olie genoeg dus?
    
    kck
    
    
14. faites-vos-jeux 9 april 2006 10:07

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    voor $$$$$:
    
    bovengenoemd Citigroup rapport geeft Repsol een 3M rating (verkopen, medium risk), target price 21,- (nu rond de 23,- dacht ik) met volgende commentaar:
    - Reserve write-down highlights weak reserve position and over-exposure to Argentina and Bolivia
    - Argentina write-down unexpected, audit only partially complete
    - 2009’s production guidance cut by 9% and capex increased by E2bn
    - Pursuing upstream diversification and growth at any cost?
    - Very low oil price sensitivity
    
    het rating systeem gaf ik gisteren verkeerd weer: 1 is buy, 2 hold, 3 sell (dus RD Shell is een hold met low risk); het systeem van risico inschatting is als volgt: L is low risk, M medium risk, H high risk en S speculative
    
15. [verwijderd] 13 april 2006 20:04

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    En hop, olie boven de $69:
    
    www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
16. [verwijderd] 13 april 2006 20:12

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    rt 68.70 , na intraday-afketsing
17. [verwijderd] 17 april 2006 13:46

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    Oil surges, hits $70
    Crude prices surge in early trade hitting a seven and a half month record due to increasing tensions between Iran and the West.
    April 17, 2006: 7:27 AM EDT
    
    LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil prices hit $70 on Monday, the highest level for nearly eight months, as Iran's pursuit of its nuclear programme heightened fears the U.S. might take military action against the oil-producing nation.
    
    U.S. light sweet crude was trading 45 cents higher at $69.75 by 1110 GMT, off a session high of $70.
    
    The session peak was the highest since Hurricane Katrina battered oil infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf Coast and drove U.S. crude to a record of $70.85 on August 30 last year.
    
    London's Brent crude on Monday rose 54 cents to $71.11 after touching a new record-high of $71.40.
    
    "The drama over Iran's face-off with the West, the rise of insurgency in Nigeria and gasoline supply concerns in the U.S. ahead of the driving season are keeping a high floor under oil," said Victor Shum at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.
    
    Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said on Monday Iran would continue to enrich uranium following its announcement last week it had enriched uranium for use in power stations.
    
    "The Islamic Republic of Iran does not intend to stop," he told reporters in Kuwait during a visit to the Gulf state.
    
    The West suspects the nation is trying to build an atomic bomb and talk of a U.S. attack has topped the international news agenda since a report in the New Yorker magazine this month said Washington was considering using tactical nuclear weapons to knock out Iran's subterranean nuclear sites.
    
    Fear of possible disruption of supplies from Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, have helped to drive the price of U.S. crude 20 percent higher since mid-February.
    
    NIGERIA OUTAGE
    Another concern is the shut-in of more than 500,000 barrels per day in OPEC producer Nigeria following militant unrest.
    
    Royal Dutch Shell said on Monday it had yet to assess its offshore EA field, despite hopes a preparatory assessment would be made last week.
    
    The review would be a step towards resuming production at the 115,000 barrels per day field, considered to be the easiest to restart of those that have been shut in.
    
    Analysts say the loss of high quality Nigerian crude will become more and more of an issue as the U.S. driving season, which begins in May, approaches.
    
    "Light sweet crude is particularly sought after by refiners during the spring and summer as it provides a high yield of gasoline," said Mike Wittner of investment bank Calyon.
    
    He added the Nigerian shortfall could not be made up for by the world's largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, whose spare capacity is heavy, sour and more difficult to process.
    
    Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have said there is nothing more the group can do to calm the markets.
    
    "On production there is nothing we can do. We are already producing at maximum output," Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said. "There is no shortage in supply."
    
    OPEC, which is expected to hold informal talks later this week on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Doha, would probably keep oil output steady for the rest of this year if demand holds steady and prices stay high, he added.
    
    A senior OPEC delegate also said on Monday the producer group was unlikely to change current production levels "as things stand" and that supplies were adequate to cope with unexpected shortages or rising demand.
    
    money.cnn.com/2006/04/17/markets/oil_...
18. [verwijderd] 17 april 2006 16:40

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    Zoals iedereen wel weet onderhand zijn op dit forum mensen die zonder al te veel kennis beweren dat het wel goed komt met energie. De techniek staat immers voor niets. En als je nu maar positief genoeg denkt dan komt alles dik in orde.
    Wel, Jim Rogers is nou niet bepaald een negatief figuur en hij heeft in zijn leven zijn kansen meer dan gepakt en doet dat nog steeds. Maar hij is tegelijkertijd realistisch in mijn ogen en ik luister toch liever naar hem dan naar betweters.
    vr.gr. duro
    
    Peter Schiff Interviews Jimmy Rogers
    
    By Peter Schiff
    
    April 15, 2006
    
    
    www.europac.net
    
    
    Last month I had the pleasure of sitting down to an exclusive interview with famed investor and best-selling author, Jimmy Rogers. Among the topics we discussed were China, commodities, the U.S. dollar, and Gold. The forty-five minute, extremely candid and highly provocative interview consisted of my asking and Jim answering ten questions, as well as follow-up questions and discussions between the two of us. I then condensed the interview into a sixteen-page special report, an excerpt from which is reproduced below. To read the entire interview, download your free copy of the special report at www.europac.net/report/index_rogers.a...
    
    Peter Schiff:
    
    Which brings me to my next question: your outlook on gold? You've always viewed gold differently from other commodities. Why?
    
    Jim Rogers:
    
    The supply and demand dynamics for gold have been different from other commodities for two or three decades. I own some gold, but I’ve always tried to explain to people that they would make more money in other commodities than they would in gold, because of the supply and demand dynamics. Now that has been true for the last decade or so. For lead, in fact, you would have made a lot more money over the past thirty years, the past twenty years, the past ten years, than you would have in gold. But if you own gold, I still don’t expect to make as much in gold as I would in things like corn and soy beans. But I own it. However, if I were looking at commodities these days, I would look at things like agriculture, because agriculture, for the most part, has moved up less than metals or anything. You know, cotton is still 50% below its all time high. Soy beans are something like 60% from the all time high. There are fundamental changes taking place. The amount of acres devoted to wheat around the world has been declining for 30 years. The world has consumed more corn than it has produced for five years in a row. That’s never happened in recorded history. The worldwide inventories are low, on a historic basis. And that’s without a drought. We haven’t had a major drought anywhere in the world for some time. We used to have them all the time. Will we never have a drought again? I doubt it. And, by the way, increasing agricultural production is not as simple as just planting as few seeds. Take coffee, for instance. It takes five years for a coffee tree to mature. If you and decided to go into the coffee business today, it would take our plantation a long time to come on stream and mature. . You don’t snap your finger, and magically fruit tress cotton plants, soy bean bushes appear. And in the meantime, the price of everything those farmers use is skyrocketing: natural gas, diesel fuel, labor, insurance, etc. Everything they use to produce their products it is also going up in price. So it takes a high price for them to start bringing on marginal land to produce new and more products.
    
    Peter Schiff:
    
    Let’s talk specifically about commodities and energy. To what extant can technology and alternative fuels rescue us from the commodity and energy shortage? I’m thinking about nanotechnology, nuclear power, gas hydrogenation to provide clean-burning coal, solar energy, etc.
    
    Jim Rogers
    
    Yes, technology can help, of course. But all these new innovations take enormous amounts of time to be developed and enter the marketplace. Eventually this commodity bull market (which includes energy) will come to an end, Peter. If history is
    any guide, some time between 2014 and 2022, the bull market in commodities will come to an end. That’s based on history, that is not a prediction. The average commodity bull market has lasted about eighteen years. Something eventually causes it to
    come to an end. Let’s look at alternative energy sources, for example. If we all decided today we wanted to have wind power, we couldn’t. You can’t get windmills. You can’t change the world that quickly. And solar is not competitive right now. Eventually it might be. But if we all decided today, Peter, to have solar panels on our roofs, you can’t get them. You can’t change that quickly. Nuclear of course, is making a come-back. But it takes years to build a nuclear power plant. And remember in the mean time the old plants are all becoming obsolete. The power plants in America are thirty to forty years old. So by the time a new one comes on stream, those plants will be forty or fifty years old. There has been massive underinvestment in things like mining, oil exploration and agricultural development. Agricultural land is left fallow. Plantations give way to real estate development. Renewing commodity infrastructure, finding new sources of commodities, new oil fields, developing new plantations takes lots of time…years in many cases. Only one new lead mine opened in the world in twenty-five years! Technological changes are coming, of course. But it just takes a long, long time. We don’t reverse these things quickly. Almost every oil country in the world has got declining reserves. All the major oil companies are quite open about the fact that they are not replacing their reserves, not by discoveries anyway or development. Maybe they’re buying other oil companies. But that’s not increasing the amount of oil in the world. There’s going to be something to cause this bull market to come to an end, someday, but the emphasis should be on someday, because someday is a long way, away.
    
    To learn more about investing in internationally based commodity oriented stocks, download my free report The Powerful Case for Investing in Foreign Equities available at www.europac.net/report/index.asp?s=eu...
    And subscribe to my free online newsletter at www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter...
    
    
    
    Peter D. Schiff, President
    Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
    10 Corbin Drive, Suite B
    Darien, Ct. 06820
    phone 203-662-9700
    toll free 888-377-3722
    email schiff@europac.net
    web www.europac.net
    
19. [verwijderd] 17 april 2006 16:57

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    "Maybe they’re buying other oil companies. But that’s not increasing the amount of oil in the world"
    
    Lijkt wel een uitleg voor debielen(;-))en verder ben ik het natuurlijk met deze meneer eens dat het overschakelen op alternatieve energievormen niet vd ene op de andere dag zal lukken.
    Iedere onbenul zal dat wel doorhebben...
    
    Jij nog niet Duro?(je vond het zo'n interessant artikel)
    
    gr
    
    Ab
20. [verwijderd] 17 april 2006 18:07

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    Olie weer door de $ 70!
    
    www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
21. [verwijderd] 17 april 2006 21:26

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    quote:

    waterskieer schreef:

    Iedere onbenul zal dat wel doorhebben...
    
    Jij nog niet Duro?
    

    Je weet toch dat Duro geen onbenul is, waterskieer?
    Die heeft dat dus zéker door!