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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

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  1. [verwijderd] 17 maart 2006 20:26

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    Is Oil Set to Surge Once More?

    By Edward Tapamor
    17 Mar 2006 at 11:44 AM EST

    PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The media has groaned under the weight of supposedly good news. Oil is falling in price. But then it stopped falling and once again jumped up past $60. Are we now seeing a volatile pattern emerging for the year?

    Because unlike the bear market of late-2005 which could not break far below $55, this new bear market could not breach the $60 barrier. It did manage to creep down past $60 of course, but only for a few days. Even as the newspapers trumpeted “slumping” prices it sneaked back up.

    The build up of American stocks was one of the key factors in bringing down the price. It is true they have been well supplied, especially with first products such as gasoline, then more recently with crude oil. But remember stocks would not be high if oil were not so expensive.

    If oil and distillates fell in price who would want big stocks of them? If you were the holder of the oil you would have bought high and face selling low. So one reason stocks have built is because the underlying feeling is that oil will have to move higher at some point.

    OPEC has held three meetings in four months. If it were fearful of a price collapse, it would already be cutting production. The last time oil fell in price OPEC failed to act in time, this will not happen again.

    Even though OPEC governments like high prices, as it returns huge swathes of cash to their state owned companies, they do not want volatility. They do not want the blame or the attention. Yet in their recent meetings they have taken no action whatsoever.

    Generally warm weather has been used as another excuse for low prices. Canadians have moaned about the lack of skiing; Americans have moaned about the lack of skiing; Europeans have just moaned. Climate change or not, this winter has been a blessing for the oil markets. In some ways perhaps it was payback for the crushing blows inflicted by the hurricanes Katrina and Rita. But as those hurricanes show, one cannot rely on good fortune. And as we say, despite this, oil could not break below $60.

    Now to the price upside. U.S. gasoline inventories have started to fall relative to their normal position. Total U.S. products fell by over 7 million barrels against the regular seasonal pattern. This figure has in fact been helped out by the last of the foreign distillate imports coming into the U.S., around 1.3 million barrels a day in fact.

    Those foreign refineries that were working full tilt. They were profiting from the best margins for a decade or more, caused by loss of American refining capacity, due to those hurricanes. Still the U.S. is out some 340,000 barrels per day of refining capacity. But now those foreign refineries that filled the gap are shutting for maintenance. There will be a catch up.

    On the demand side things simply will not calm down. U.S. gasoline demand keeps going up. Last month saw a rise of 1.1% year on year to over 9.1 million barrels a day. Gasoline futures contracts went up 23 cents in one week. The current U.S. pump price is edging back up at $2.36. Other refined products including heating fuels also saw demand rise, despite the mild winter. They were up 2.3% year on year.

    Outside of the U.S. Chinese demand is still on the move. Up 6% against this time last year the only hope is that the Chinese government restrain prices. This means China actually exports refined products as the market is a loss maker for Chinese refiners. It is a form of rationing that leads to power cuts and austerity for Chinese people. But it might help the rest of the world.

    Output from the former Soviet Union has also stalled. The International Energy Agency is predicting an increase in their output of over 1.2 million barrels per day in 2006. But last year their output growth was zero. Maybe this year they will be right. Or maybe not.

    Then of course, come the wild cards. Boy are those cards wild. We have a situation in Nigeria that looks totally unstoppable. A corrupt government has long since lost the sympathy of its people, especially those in oil producing regions. Iran is still beating its chest, but now so is the Whitehouse. Palestine looked to be calming down, but then came the so called ‘Siege of Jericho.’

    Then throw in Sudan, Syria, Indonesia, southern Thailand, elections in Mexico and elections in the Ukraine into the mix. Do you think we will get away with it?

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
  4. [verwijderd] 20 maart 2006 20:16

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    quote:

    dominn schreef:

    ja flink naar de tering
    het zat tijdelijk in de prijs inbegrepen, dat wist iedereen. Vraag is of er nieuwe aanslagen op komst zijn. Ik heb liever alle tijdelijke zaken zo snel mogelijk uit de prijs. Het liefst heb ik een puur vraag/aanbod-verhaal. Dat is al voldoende om olie gelijdelijk te laten stijgen. En dan niet een paar weken, maar jaaaaaaaaren.
  5. [verwijderd] 21 maart 2006 17:19

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    ja is inderdaad ook zo, maar ik had het niet op dit moment verwacht.Ik ben namelijk ook vlak hiervoor ingestapt. Maar toch goedkoop bijkoop punt want je hebt wel waar de olie gaat toch omhoog op lange termijn
  6. [verwijderd] 23 maart 2006 19:17

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    Oil jumps back above $63

    Crude prices soar after news agency reports Italy's Eni will not honor contracts on its Nigerian exports.
    March 23, 2006: 12:39 PM EST

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Oil prices soared as much as $2 a barrel Thursday following a news report that Italian oil firm Eni would not honor contracts on its Nigerian exports.

    U.S. light sweet crude for May delivery jumped $1.68 a barrel to $63.45 a barrel in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $63.80, up just over $2 a barrel, earlier in the session.

    Reuters reported that Italy's Eni said Thursday it would not honor crude export contracts from on its Nigerian Brass River crude exports, following a pipeline attack last week, that shuttered 75,000 barrels a day in output.

    The oil company exports roughly 200,000 barrels a day, the news service reported.

    The news sparked fears that oil that was expected to come to market may not reach buyers.

    Earlier in the session, some analysts were scrambling to determine what was pushing crude prices higher, blaming the spike on a delayed reaction to Wednesday's U.S. crude inventory report.

    Crude oil stocks in the United States fell 1.3 million barrels last week, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report issued Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 2.5 million barrels.

    Following Wednesday's report, prices surprised market observers by falling 57 cents to $61.77 a barrel.

    The build in crude inventories to their healthiest level in nearly seven years had helped outweigh fears that supplies in some producer countries, notably Nigeria and Iran, could be disrupted.

    Worries about gasoline inventories have pushed oil and gasoline futures higher recently as traders fear supplies will be pinched ahead of the busy summer driving season.

    In its report Wednesday, EIA said gasoline inventories dropped by 2.3 million barrels last week, while distillates, used to make heating oil and other products, slipped by 0.8 million barrels last week.

    money.cnn.com/2006/03/23/markets/oil/...
  7. [verwijderd] 24 maart 2006 16:20

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    Where we stand on oil in Nigeria at present
    By Jon Nones
    24 Mar 2006 at 09:50 AM

    Here’s a look at the effects on the oilfield attacks in Nigeria:

    Royal Dutch Shell, Nigeria’s biggest operator, which has cut its output by 455,000 barrels per day since mid-Feb.

    Chevron and Eni have also shut in output, taking the total amount of crude output closed by the attacks to 630,000 bpd, 26% of Nigeria’s 2.4 million bpd capacity.

    At least two Nigerian oil refineries to shut, Abubakar Yar’Adua, group executive director for refining and petrochemicals at state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC).

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
  8. [verwijderd] 24 maart 2006 20:03

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    Een olieprijs van $ 45.00 kunnen we m.i. wel vergeten.

    Na een aantal hobbelige weken is de olie niet onder de $ 60.00 gekomen.....oei...en dat zonder noemenswaardige problemen.

    Met mindere voorraden in de VS.

    Betekent eigenlijk, dat de olie maar een richting op kan.

    gr.fes

  9. [verwijderd] 24 maart 2006 20:12

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    bodem van de tradingrange voor het olie ligt ergens rond de 58,00 USD. Ik zie hem voorlopig ook niet dalen(te veel onrust in de wereld) en het orkaanseizoen in de VS komt er binnenkort ook weer aan.
  10. [verwijderd] 24 maart 2006 20:52

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    Ik zoek nog wat aandelen of beleggingsfondsen in de energie voor de lange termijn. In de olie-aardgas-uranium en duurzame energie. Ik zit nu met ML world energy-Ml world new energy -Abn energie fonds-Odin Offshore-Ohra new energy. Wil dit graag nog wat uitbouwen. ik denk dat dit een goede belegging is voor de komende jaren.
    Wat zijn trouwens EM energie aandelen?
  12. [verwijderd] 26 maart 2006 21:25

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    Tacticval oil stock trends

    Adam Hamilton



    March 24, 2006

    3009
    Oil stocks continue to look fantastic technically, despite their steep correction in early February and their choppy sideways trading patterns since.

    Out of all the major commodities-stocks sectors that are thriving in today’s commodities bull, oil stocks are probably the surest thing. While their ultimate returns won’t be as high as smaller high-flying sectors like precious-metals stocks, oil stocks have a vastly superior ratio of potential returns to risk.



    In other words, oil stocks are almost certainly the least risky commodities-stock sector in which to deploy capital today. This unique attribute of oil stocks is a product of several factors including the global importance and fundamentals of oil, the massive size and scale of the oil companies, and their unbelievably low valuations.



    Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, and despite countless attempts to render it less important no suitable energy substitute is anywhere close to being found. All over the world people, companies, and nations will not hesitate to buy oil products regardless of their price. Global demand growth is outstripping global supply growth as the world becomes more explored and fewer giant oilfields remain to be discovered.



    Since the world oil markets are so big and essential, the companies taking the immense risks necessary to pump and transport this crucial commodity have also grown very large. The raw size and scale of the oil companies, on average, utterly dwarfs those in every other commodities sector. The bigger companies are, the less they are buffeted about my shifting tides of capital flows and the less prone they are to sudden movements up or down.



    But as tech investors learned in 2000, even big companies are not immune from major stock declines. When companies get too pricey relative to their earnings power an adjustment lower is all but inevitable. The most important attribute of the oil stocks is not their size, but their valuations. Today oil stocks are dirt cheap in fundamental terms, the biggest bargains relative to their earnings streams in the entire stock market.



    Earlier this week in our Zeal Speculator alert service I compared the valuations of the six biggest oil stocks with the six largest NASDAQ stocks. The six biggest oil majors commanded a staggering $1146b in market capitalization. The six biggest NASDAQ 100 stocks were a bit smaller with a combined market cap of $802b. To gain a sense of scale on how big these numbers truly are, the total NASDAQ 100 market cap is about $2050b.



    These giant tech stocks had an average P/E ratio of 31.9x earnings, which is still above the 28x level that has marked major stock-market bubbles in history. Meanwhile the six elite oil majors had an average P/E ratio of only 9.6x! This is just slightly above the 7x levels that flag multi-decade market lows in history, the only times when long-term investors are virtually guaranteed big wins by buying blue-chip companies at fire-sale prices.



    Thus, earlier this week a single dollar of elite oil-company earnings only cost 30% as much as an identical dollar of elite tech-company earnings. At their current low valuations probabilities overwhelmingly favor oil stocks moving much higher just to reach normal fair-value levels at 14x earnings. These low valuations have created a stunning intersection where commodities investors’ interests are overlapping with those of value investors. The combined capital of both these groups should continue flooding into oil stocks.



    Given their unparalleled importance in the global economy and cheap valuations, the risks in oil stocks are very low today despite their awesome run higher last year. But even with these overwhelmingly bullish fundamentals, oil-stock investors and speculators remain quite skittish. Oil stocks are the best buy in the commodities-stock world as well as the greatest value-investment opportunity today, yet they are being largely shunned. Why?



    I suspect the answer to this crucial question is two-pronged. While Wall Street is slowly making the adjustment to realize that $60+ oil is not an anomaly but a new base, this truth hasn’t yet fully dawned on all funds and advisors. Many still think oil prices are going lower and don’t want to buy into oil companies if their profits will be falling. But if oil stays near $60 or above as fundamentals suggest it should, then oil companies are way too cheap today.

    Zie verder www.zealllc.com/2006/xoitech.htm

    vr.gr. duro

  16. [verwijderd] 28 maart 2006 19:59

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    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Het is nauwelijks meer een issue, maar olie staat 2.5% in de plus. $ 66 is aangetikt

    www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
    Tja, wie meende toch ook weer dat olie snel weer onder de $50 zou zakken? De winter is zo goed als voorbij maar olie op $66.
    vr.gr. duro
  19. [verwijderd] 30 maart 2006 18:15

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    De hete strijd om Afrika's olie

    In The Standard, een Chinese zakelijke krant, verscheen recentelijk een interessant artikel over de toekomstige status van Afrika als grootleverancier van olie. IHS Energy, een olie en gas consultancy firma, stelt dat tegen 2010 Africa 30% van de globale groei in olie- en gasproductie voor haar rekening zal nemen. De opkomst van de Afrikaanse energie-industrie zal het geopolitieke landschap van de regio veranderen, zo zegt men. De invloed van India en China speelt hierbij vanzelfsprekend een grote rol. Dat met name China voorbijgaat aan de belabberde politieke situatie en de mensenrechten in het merendeel van de huidige Afrikaanse olieproducerende landen, ondermijnt juist het feit dat het westen zich uit dergelijke toestanden terugtrekt en sancties oplegt om het beleid van diezelfde producenten te beïnvloeden.

    www.peakoil.nl/pivot/entry.php?id=642...
  20. [verwijderd] 30 maart 2006 18:22

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    China vergroot strategische oliereserves

    China is in navolging van de Verenigde Staten en Europa sinds 2004 bezig met het bouwen van strategische oliereserves. Fase 1 van het plan is aan het einde van dit jaar afgerond, goed voor 100 miljoen vaten olie aan opslagcapaciteit. De aanbouw van fase twee wordt binnenkort met verhoogde prioriteit in werking gesteld.

    China heeft plannen voor strategische reserves gelijk aan 90 tot 120 dagen olievraag, wat neerkomt op 630 tot 840 miljoen vaten. De tweede en derde fase bestaan beide uit de aanbouw van een opslagcapaciteit van 200 miljoen vaten aan olie. De opslagfaciliteiten worden grotendeels gebouwd door Saoedi-Arabië, het land heeft een contract getekend dat goed is voor 200 miljoen vaten aan opslagcapaciteit met China.

    De Verenigde Staten loopt tot nog toe aan kop met gevulde strategische reserves van 727 miljoen vaten. In 2001 gaf president George Bush de opdracht om de zoutkoepels waarin de olie ligt tot de nok toe te vullen, van 545 miljoen vaten in 2001 naar 727 in 2005. Dit veroorzaakte vier jaar lang een stijging in de wereldwijde vraag van 0.15%, aangezien de reserve met een tempo van ongeveer 120.000 vaten per dag gevuld werd. Er liggen zelfs nog plannen om de reserve verder uit te breiden van 727 miljoen naar 1 miljard vaten. O

    Dit jaar zal China waarschijnlijk beginnen met het vullen van zijn strategische reserves. Maar als dat op Amerikaanse snelheden gaat, met 120.000 vaten, zal dat 15 jaar duren. Waarschijnlijker is daarom een vulsnelheid van zo’n 300.000 vaten per dag, waarbij maar 6 a 7 jaar nodig is. In principe kunnen strategische reserves veel sneller gevuld worden. In de Verenigde Staten is de maximale snelheid 750.000 vaten per dag.

    www.iex.nl/forum/forum.asp?forum=23
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