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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

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  3. [verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 18:09

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    quote:

    fes schreef:

    Een teken dat deze cijfers steeds minder belangrijk worden voor de mondiale markt die nu zo'n 85 miljoen barrels/dag nodig heeft.
    gr.fes
    Ja ik denk ook wel in die richting. Mij is het opgevallen dat er de laatste weken weinig gedaan is met de cijfers over de voorraden. Geopolitieke argumeneten en incideneten spelen een veel grotere rol.
  4. [verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 18:55

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    Lekker op tijd deze opmerking. Dit wordt op grote schaal al zeker een jaar geroepen:

    Saudis: Build more oil refineries

    "The supply is here, inventories are building, there is certainly no shortage of supply - so build, build refineries, al-Naimi told reporters.

    "Start building refineries and you will solve maybe half of the problem," he added during his traditional morning jog in Vienna, ahead of a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries due on Wednesday.

    Industrialised countries have been pressing members of the cartel to raise their production ceiling for crude oil by half a million barrels per day (bpd) to 28 million bpd.

    But real crude output is already far higher and in some instance running at full capacity, according to ministers and analysts.

    OPEC ministers arriving in the Austrian capital have cautioned that while they are broadly ready to raise their collective production quota for crude, it would have little effect on prices.

    First stage

    The cartel's president, Kuwait's Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah and counterparts from Algeria, Libya and Nigeria signalled they were ready to support the move championed by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and widely regarded as the most influential member of the cartel.

    "We are already producing that actually, now we are over 28 (million bpd) ... but at least this will give a good signal to the market," al-Sabah said early on Tuesday.

    An increase now could be a "first stage" towards the fourth quarter when demand is traditionally expected to increase with the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere and higher energy consumption, he added.

    But Libya's energy chief Fathi Ben Shatwan echoed a widely held view that the move would be a purely "psychological" gesture.

    Al-Naimi dubbed the likely increase of 500,000 bpd "reasonable", and insisted on Tuesday that the market "should be comfortable today with the current supply".

    Growth

    Oil prices had shot up by $2 a barrel on Monday above the $55-mark amid continuing supply fears, partly fuelled by China's growing economy, and low-running concern that high oil prices are undermining global economic growth.

    They later eased in Asian trading.

    "The world will be more comfortable with prices below 50 dollars," al-Naimi said, echoing earlier comments by his Iranian counterpart Bijan Namdar Zangeneh.

    "We have been trying for some time," the Saudi Arabian official added.

    He indicated that Saudi Arabia was ready to boost its own production from 9.5 bpd.



    "If we have customers, we can put 11 million bpd now," the oil chief added.


    But he placed great emphasis on bottlenecks caused by inadequate refinery capacity in consumer countries, pointing out that little or no investment in new refinery plants had been made for about 20 years.

    Independent refineries

    "We have to convince the governments to build refineries in the United States and elsewhere," al-Naimi told reporters."Everybody is late in building refineries."

    Al-Naimi also said that if Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output, it would be able to bring only more medium and heavy crude onto the market.

    Those are exactly the types of oil for which refinery capacity is lacking to turn them into consumer petroleum products such as petrol or heating oil, officials pointed out.

    OPEC will boost its real output to 30.5 or 31 million bpd during the fourth quarter, juts above current levels of almost 30 million bpd, al-Sabah said.

    Demand traditionally rises sharply during the winter months in the northern hemisphere, placing greater pressure on supply and prodding prices upwards.

    Over the past year that trend has been amplified by China's roaring industrial and consumer growth.

    english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/16342...
  5. [verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 19:21

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    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Ja ik denk ook wel in die richting. Mij is het opgevallen dat er de laatste weken weinig gedaan is met de cijfers over de voorraden. Geopolitieke argumeneten en incideneten spelen een veel grotere rol.
    Moet je nou die olieprijs weer eens zien!
    Gewoon lekker blijven zitten en niet teveel naar de cijfertjes kijken.
    gr.fes
  6. [verwijderd] 12 januari 2006 18:10

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    By Matthew Robinson

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil struck a three-month high on Wednesday on concerns Iran's nuclear ambitions could draw international sanctions that disrupt crude flows from the world's fourth biggest exporter.

    U.S. crude futures hit $64.80 a barrel, the highest since early October, before settling up 57 cents at $63.94. London Brent crude ended at $62.17, up 25 cents.

    Britain on Wednesday called for the U.N. Security Council to consider action against Iran after it vowed to resume nuclear fuel research, and Washington said a referral to the body was "more likely than ever".

    "Iran is driving it today, throwing jitters into the market. The idea is that this dispute over Iran's nuclear program may lead to international sanctions that could interrupt the flow of crude," said Kyle Cooper, oil analyst at Citigroup Global Markets.

    Some analysts downplayed the possibility Iran would use oil as a weapon, saying withholding supplies would be a double-edged sword for the OPEC nation.

    "The Iran situation is a concern to the degree that it could lead to a supply disruption. But I don't think it will come to that. They need the revenues more than the global market needs their oil," Joe Arsenio of Arsenio Capital Management in Larkspur, California said.

    Oil prices have risen more than 10 percent since last December, supported by simmering tensions in the Middle East that spurred an influx of speculative cash.

    Further support for oil prices came from U.S. government data which showed a 2.9 million barrel draw in crude stocks last week, which partially offset a 4.9 million barrel build in distillate inventories on warmer weather.

    Mild winter temperatures were expected in the U.S. Northeast, the largest heating oil market, for the next 10 days, forecasters said.

    Gasoline supplies increased by 4.5 million barrels.

    Despite the build in products stocks, traders said expectations of strong demand and refinery problems gave crude oil prices a boost, traders said.

    BP Plc.'s giant oil refinery in Texas City, Texas, will resume fuel production in March, three months later than initially expected, sources familiar with the plant's operations told Reuters on Tuesday.

    The nation's third largest oil refinery was completely shut in September in advance of Hurricane Rita.

    in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle...
  7. [verwijderd] 16 januari 2006 13:20

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    Dit is geen goed nieuws voor de olieprijs (of wel als je dik "in" olie zit...:

    Shell evacueert personeel Nigeria

    ***************************************
    LAGOS Shell heeft het personeel van
    vier olieplatforms in het westen van
    Nigeria geëvacueerd.Het gaat in totaal
    om ruim 300 mensen.Shell besloot tot de
    evacuatie naar aanleiding van een
    aanval op een overslagstation in de
    regio.Daarbij vielen zeker zes doden.

    Het is in de Nigeriaanse moerasdelta
    waar de olie wordt gewonnen al een tijd
    onrustig.De lokale bevolking eist een
    groter aandeel in de opbrengst van de
    olieproductie.

    Woensdag werden drie buitenlandse
    werknemers van Shell ontvoerd.De daders
    eisen de vrijlating van een lokale
    leider.Shell overweegt meer evacuaties.

    teletekst.nos.nl/tekst/124-01.html

    Daar komt dan nog eens de geopolitieke onrust bij, met name de kwestie Iran.
  8. [verwijderd] 16 januari 2006 13:32

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    Oil Market update - $80 here we come...

    Clive Maund
    January 16th, 2006
    We now have the confirmation that we were expecting that a new intermediate uptrend is beginning in oil and oil stocks, with oil closing above $64 in the past couple of days, and the OIX oil stocks index breaking above 550 just over a week ago, signalling completion of an intermediate base in oil stocks. The outlook will remain positive even if both slip back below these respective levels in coming days or over the next week or two. A number of stocks in the oil and gas sector had big moves up late last week, notably Canwest Pete (CWPC), up 28% on Friday and Mexco Energy (MXC), up nearly 40% in the past couple of days, and there are several more lining up to make big moves, probably next week, which we will be taking a look at shortly on www.clivemaund.com.

    Hier verder + grafieken (TA):

    321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund0...
  9. [verwijderd] 16 januari 2006 14:43

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    Arab oil boom — a return of historic opportunity

    Fahed Fanek
    The future of the Arab world, and the main factors that will determine its future as of this year and for many years to come, could not be properly examined without having a look into the present high prices of petroleum prevailing in the world markets, a windfall for the producers that doubled their revenues.

    Simple arithmetic shows that every extra dollar added to the price of the barrel would add over $10 billion annually to the revenues of the petroleum exporting countries. The extra funds flowing to those countries due to the recent jump of prices amount to $200 billion.

    Analysts expect the prices of oil to stabilise at around $60 per barrel. If this high price continues through 2006, the proceeds of Arab oil alone will hover around $400 billion this year. This is a wealth that may not be spectacular by international standards but is quite substantial and can yield much influence, at least potentially. With such huge wealth, the Arab oil-producing countries can achieve much if this wealth is used wisely and not wasted away, as happened during the first oil shock, three decades ago.

    This means that the missed historic opportunity which knocked on Arab doors in the period 1974-1981, and thought to have gone forever, has presented itself once again. Historic opportunities rarely repeat themselves. But this is what is happening now. The question therefore is what the Arabs will do with this kind of wealth which enables its owners, if they are smart enough, to enjoy a special sort of influence in the international arena, comparable to the political influence of the US or the European Union.

    Such wealth can also enable the Arab oil-producing countries to build a solid national economy that is modern and sustainable after the oil resources are depleted gradually, in one or two generations.

    One wonders if Arab countries will put oil to work for them and use the renewed opportunity to play an effective international role. If they do, they may be able to achieve just solutions to the acute problems of the Palestinians, the Iraqis, the Sudanese and other Arab peoples. Otherwise, the fate of the oil will continue to be decided by the industrial West, on the understanding that oil belongs to the West even though it happens to exist under Arabian sands, as some Western politicians like to say.

    Value added in petroleum industry can be doubled by converting it locally into petrochemical products and other oil derivatives after processing in local refineries, instead of exporting crude oil. In doing so Arab countries will not only double the proceeds — they will also create a vibrant industrial sector that generates jobs and induces economic growth on sustainable basis.

    In dealing with the subject, one taboo expression could not be avoided, that is the usage of petroleum as a political weapon. Oil was not used in this way since King Faisal of Saudi Arabia in 1973. It is possible now to resurrect the concept, as long as major countries and the international community, especially America, are using economic sanctions as a normal instrument of their foreign policy. The US is using economic sanctions to punish some 35 countries in an endeavour to achieve political objectives. There is no reason to prevent Arab countries from using oil to end occupation and bring about just peace to the region.

    Oil is a strategic commodity and it cannot be neutral; it is either a blessing or a curse. It is either used by its owners or against them. So far, Arab oil was a curse but we can turn it around and make it become a blessing. It is a historic opportunity that will not repeat itself.

    Monday, January 16, 2006

    www.jordantimes.com/mon/opinion/opini...
  10. [verwijderd] 17 januari 2006 13:22

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    Oil Prices Jump Past $65 on Iran Worries
    Tuesday January 17, 6:10 am ET
    By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer
    Oil Prices Jump Past $65 a Barrel on Political Concerns Over Iran, Nigeria

    VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Crude-oil prices spiked past $65 a barrel Tuesday as Iran's nuclear ambitions and an attack on an oil platform in Nigeria kept traders edgy over potential supply snags.

    Natural gas and heating oil also rose despite plentiful supplies and warm weather in the United States, the world's largest energy market.


    Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.38 to $65.30 a barrel by afternoon in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract on Friday had dropped 2 cents to settle at $63.92 a barrel. The market was closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

    March Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange rose 74 cents to $63.92 a barrel.

    Heating oil gained 5.27 cents to $1.7677 a gallon while gasoline advanced 3.49 cents to $1.7660 a gallon.

    Natural gas rose 5.9 cents to $8.8500 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    Analysts said energy futures jumped on concerns that the U.N. Security Council will consider sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program, and after Iran's warning that any sanctions imposed could send oil prices even higher.

    "The Iranian nuclear issue is driving the market. Traders are short-covering because they know if something happens in Iran the market would be in confusion," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. "The issue poses a threat of supply disruption in a major oil-producing country."

    Russia and China on Monday joined the U.S. and its European allies in demanding that Iran fully abandon its nuclear program. The powers called for an emergency board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Feb. 2-3 to discuss the issue.

    The West fears Iran intends to build an atomic bomb, but Iran claims its program is peaceful, intended only to produce electricity.

    Iran is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer and sanctions targeting its oil and gas exports could disrupt the world's energy markets.

    Analysts also said another attack on an oil platform in Nigeria was supporting crude's rise.

    Heavily armed fighters attacked Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Benisede oil platform in the Niger Delta at dawn on Sunday, damaging the facility and killing at least one person in the third assault on its facilities in less than a week.

    Shell says recent violence has caused its consortium to cut 106,000 barrels in daily crude production. Nigeria is Africa's leading oil exporter and the fifth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports. The country produces about 2.5 million barrels a day.

    Associated Press Writer Gillian Wong contributed to this report from Singapore.
  12. [verwijderd] 17 januari 2006 18:16

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    Raffinagecapaciteit gestegen in 2005

    De laatste cijfers van de EIA - World Crude Oil Distillation Capacity laten een sterke stijging zien van de raffinagecapaciteit gedurende 2005. Van 82,795 miljoen vaten per dag op 1 januari 2005 naar 85,127 miljoen vaten per dag op 1 januari 2006, maar liefst 2.332 miljoen vaten per dag.

    In China steeg de raffinagecapaciteit met 1.6 miljoen vaten, van 4,65 miljoen vaten naar 6.25 miljoen vaten per dag. Andere grote stijgers zijn Polen (110.000 vaten), Saoedi-Arabie (350.000 vaten), de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten (267.000 vaten) en Duitsland (105.000 vaten). Een gedeelte van deze stijging plus de andere kleinere stijgers werd gecompenseerd wegens een licht dalende raffinagecapaciteit in een aantal landen. De Nederlandse raffinagecapaciteit bleef stabiel op 1.22 miljoen vaten per dag.

    De totale productie van petroleum ligt momenteel rond de 84.7 miljoen vaten per dag volgens het EIA, waarvan rond de 74 miljoen vaten per dag ruwe olie. Dat komt overeen met een wereldwijde utilisatie van de raffinagecapaciteit voor ruwe olie rond de 87%, wat erg hoog is. Dat komt volgens BP neer op hetzelfde niveau als in 2004, toen lag de utilisatie ook op 87%:

    Volgens BP lag de raffinagecapaciteit in 2004 echter al op 84,952 miljoen vaten per dag. Ook de consumptie en productie van olie ligt volgens BP altijd een stuk lager dan het EIA beweert. Dit maakt het weer lastig om enige conclusies te trekken uit deze stijging, want wie publiceert de juiste cijfers?

    Bron: EIA

    www.peakoil.nl/pivot/entry.php?id=542...
  16. faites-vos-jeux 17 januari 2006 22:34

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    Morgan Stanley 4 januari:
    European top picks across the European Energy
    arena:
    • Capex cycle — Buy Services
    Top picks: Saipem, SBM, Wood
    These names continue to benefit from the upsurge in capex across the sector. Wood and SBM have lagged the sector, but fundamentals are improving rapidly. Saipem will likely see considerable margin expansion in both construction and
    drilling.
    • Refining (Golden Age of Refining) — Buy East
    Europeans
    Top picks: MOL, PKN
    MOL and PKN are still trading on discount valuations, on our numbers, despite the convergence of East European
    markets. They offer among the highest
    refining exposures in the sector.
    Value — Buy the cheap stocks that should trend
    towards the mean Top picks: Repsol, Hydro, Statoil, Shell
    Repsol, Hydro and Statoil still offer discount valuations within
    Europe, on our numbers (Hydro and Repsol actually trade at a discount to emerging markets). Shell is trading at a 25% discount to BP on 2007e EV/DACF, and has the potential to surprise on the upside with restructuring and cash return
    initiatives.
    In Russia: Novatek, Lukoil
    Both offer exposure to emerging markets, access to
    resources, exposure to Russian gas pricing, and could benefit from increased corporate activity or FDI interest in Russia.

    Mol Magyar (raffinaderijen in Hongarije) is misschien wel wat; zag persbericht (meer een gerucht) dat Lukoil wellicht overnamebod in petto heeft (Hongaars bedrijf zou het alleen niet leuk vinden door een Russisch bedrijf te worden overgenomen)
  18. [verwijderd] 18 januari 2006 17:52

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    Famed Oil & Gas Guru Tells Supply/Demand Story

    By Jon A. Nones
    17 Jan 2006 at 06:29 PM EST

    ASPEN (ResourceInvestor.com) – Boone Pickens, founder and head of BP Capital, founder and former head of Mesa Petroleum, expert oil & gas analyst with over four decades in the field, is largely known for his bold predictions on the oil market. At the Oil & Gas Investor Forum in Aspen, Colorado, Pickens did not disappoint his listeners.

    “I think demand and production are right about the same, so where do we go from here?” Pickens said.



    In December 2005, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply had reached 85 million barrels per day (bpd) – roughly 31 billion bpd a year. Today, IEA predicted global demand would grow at 2.2% in 2006, up from 1.3% growth in 2005.

    “There’s no way we’re replacing it – no way,” Pickens said.

    In a 30-minute presentation, Pickens examined the supply/demand fundamentals of the global oil & gas market, the potential catalysts affecting the price and finally what lies ahead for investors. Sit back and watch him go.

    Supply/Demand

    Pickens began his talk much like Jim Rogers and Frank Holmes began theirs’ yesterday – with special attention to China.

    According to the IEA, China’s oil demand will average 7.4 million bpd in 2006. Although this is still much smaller than the United States at 21 million bpd, China’s growth in oil consumption will be much larger, Pickens said.

    China’s oil use is seen rising 7.2% this year compared to an expected 1.7% rise in oil demand for the U.S. market, according to the US Energy Department. Yesterday, Rogers said the fact that China had gone from an exporter to an importer of oil is reason for concern. Pickens agreed.

    “When you see an exporter become an importer, you wonder where the oil is going to come from,” he said.

    Where indeed?

    Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has reported that is has 260 billion barrels of oil reserves since 1988. The Saudis won’t let anyone know about or look at their reserves. And, apparently, OPEC needs no verification. However, it stands to reason that Saudi Arabia has tested the oil and that number will not be increasing, Pickens said.

    “I don’t think there is a lot more oil to find in Saudi Arabia,” he said, adding that it is unlikely the country will surpass 12 million bpd.

    Potential Catalysts

    According to Pickens, the results of Katrina and Rita are still weighing down the market. Some analysts believe we will never get back to 100%, he said. And to put it in perspective, 5% of oil production in Gulf equals roughly 75,000 bpd.

    Pickens also spoke about the situation in Iran, which could have serious implications on the oil market. The conflict over nuclear energy could prove politically disastrous, especially for the U.S. Iran is second in the world in oil reserves with about 133 billion barrels.

    Pickens did say that he thought there was oil still to find in Iraq. However, like Iran, so much uncertainty still exists in the country with the war, there’s no way to know when this undiscovered oil could hit the market.

    Also, let's not forget the unrest currently in Nigeria - Africa's largest oil producer. Pipeline sabotage has cut Nigeria's output by 4% in the past six days

    Pickens said he believed Russia had peaked in oil & gas production and is now looking to profit. Hence the Ukraine situation.

    “I’d hate to be in Europe depending on Russian gas right now,” he added.

    And, finally, Pickens spoke about the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Some sources say unexploited reserves in the ANWR are believed to be about 10 billion barrels; others say as much as 16 billion. Pickens seemed skeptical about this – both in the amount and the possibility of drilling.

    Pickens said even if we decide to drill and it turns out that the reserves are indeed this big, only 2 million barrels would fit in the pipeline.

    “I don’t see this making a big difference,” he concluded.

    The Future

    According to Pickens, OPEC is looking for place to put the oil price that won’t cause a worldwide recession.

    “We’re at $65 and I still think we’re going to have a pull-back…but I’m not sure it will ever go back to $55 again,” said Pickens.

    However, he said that if the price gets too high, demand will ease and alternatives will start to come into the picture. Demand may turn down at $70 a barrel, he said.

    Pickens drew attention to the growing popularity in uranium. At this point, we all have read about how many nuclear power plants China plans to construct, as well as the ongoing debate in Europe. However, Pickens wasn’t so sure the old concerns about nuclear energy had subsided.

    “I think '06 is going to get pretty stormy on the uranium front,” he said. “This could put oil at $100.”

    Pickens next spoke about natural gas as an alternative to gasoline, especially for transportation. Compared to oil, natural gas is very cheap even at around $9 per million Btu.

    “Natural gas can do anything gasoline can do,” he said, adding that it “should never have been used for power generation” in the first place.

    Conclusion

    Pickens concluded by saying that eventually mankind will see this period as the hydrocarbon era. The period started roughly 100 years ago with the invention of the automobile, and could be half over.

    “If half the oil has been found and produced, we have about another 100 years,” he said.

    Of course, he said it would not end immediately. There would be an extensive transition period. The question is, how close are we now?

    “I think in 20 years or so, we’re going to begin the transition away from oil as a fuel,” Pickens said.

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
  19. [verwijderd] 18 januari 2006 18:02

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    Olieproductie Rusland daalt wegens kouIn rusland is het momenteel nog steeds zeer koud, volgens metereologen zal het de koudste winter worden sinds 1979. In West-Siberie, het kloppend hart van de olieproductie in Rusland fluctueerde de temperatuur tussen de min 30 en min 51 graden celsius vorige week. Daardoor zijn een aantal oliebronnen diep vastgevroren wat de olieproductie met 200.000 vaten per dag heeft doen dalen.

    Alhoewel de olieproductie traditioneel licht daalt in Januari en Februari wegens sterke kou is deze daling veel scherper dan in recentelijke jaren. Vaak duurt het tot aan mei om een bron die vastgevroren is te herstarten. Ondertussen is de vraag naar aardgas in Rusland sterk gestegen wegens het bikkelweer.

    www.peakoil.nl/pivot/entry.php?id=547
  20. [verwijderd] 18 januari 2006 20:30

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    Oil Securities ETC: The Investment Vehicle of the Future?

    By Jon A. Nones
    18 Jan 2006 at 02:05 PM EST

    ASPEN (ResourceInvestor.com) – Two days ago at the International Oil & Gas Investor Forum, Jim Rogers preached commodities to listeners. He said “you’re better off investing in commodities” rather than commodities companies because companies can go under.

    Boone Pickens insinuated yesterday that the oil industry had reached a low or negative growth rate, with decline production, a lack of big finds and increasing demand. He said the oil & gas industry is “a tough business” and the future might bring uncertainty for many companies. Meanwhile, his commodities index is up 25,000% since its inception, he said.



    See where this is going?

    Graham Tuckwell, chairman of Oil Securities Inc., spoke today about another option to investing in oil companies – investing in oil itself. And at last check, U.S. crude oil is up $66.91 a barrel, and London Brent crude was up five cents at $64.95.

    “What we offer is the opportunity for people to buy and sell oil on the London Stock Exchange,” Tuckwell explained.

    Oil Securities offers an exchange-traded commodity (ETC), which acts like an exchange-traded fund (ETF), accurately tracking the oil price. Listed under the symbol OILB in London, the ETC was released on July 28, 2005, and marketed as the world’s first oil ETF.

    “It’s a fully priced paid investment which tracks the oil price, much like a futures contract, but without the hassle,” added Tuckwell.

    According to the company, the ETC is a simple investment tool that gives direct exposure to the price of oil without having to manage a futures position or take physical delivery of oil. It is traded in U.S. dollars and has $180 million generated for daily fund creation and redemption. Furthermore, Oil Securities is backed by Shell through Brent oil contracts.

    “There are some companies out there that say give us your money and we’ll try to match it…we don’t do that,” said Tuckwell.

    He said that Oil Securities virtually buys the oil from Shell and in turn sells it directly to the investor.

    Still relatively new, Tuckwell believes that the ETC will gain more popularity once the word gets out. He said most brokers recommend that commodities should take up 5%-10% of all portfolios. Investors can now safely add oil as a commodity.

    “We say oil securities is an efficiency way to move your portfolio,” he said.

    Much as we’ve seen with gold mining stocks lagging behind the price of gold, Tuckwell said the same has happened in the oil market. Oil securities have substantially outperformed the S&P 500, because they are not linked to the equity market, he added.

    Tuckwell said that the ETC doesn’t solely follow the spot price alone. He said it also follows the rolling return, the price of the futures market, and collateral yield, the interest gained from collateral. This could be very attractive to retail investors, said Tuckwell.

    Tuckwell said in time, both institutions and pension funds will begin to allocate more money to commodities. In fact, Hermes Pensions Management announced today that it has invested £1 billion in commodities on behalf of its owner and major client, BT Pension Scheme. The investment represents 3% of BT Pension’s total funds of £34 billion.

    “Jim Rogers message will become widespread – invest in commodities, not commodities companies,” said Tuckwell.

    Tuckwell concluded by saying that in his eyes there are two ways to invest in oil: companies and Oil Securities. By investing in Oil Securities, investors eliminate much of the risk, he said.

    “Investing in commodities will become familiar to most market participants over the next few year,” Tuckwell summarized, and oil will be the commodity of choice.

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
  21. [verwijderd] 19 januari 2006 18:41

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    Uncertainty Mounting in Oil & Gas Sector

    By Lindsay Williams
    19 Jan 2006 at 11:22 AM EST

    JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- A dramatic hike in the price of natural gas from Russia to Europe, rebel threats to oil facilities in Nigeria, and uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear ambitions see the price of crude oil spike. Classic Business Day gets Adrian Jackson, energy analyst at Investec Asset Management, on the line from London to talk about the oil & gas sector.

    LINDSAY WILLIAMS: The gas price in the U.K. and Europe went through the roof with the well-publicized dispute between Russia and the Ukraine, and that’s had a knock-on effect on the oil market. Then we’ve got Nigeria and Iran, and a cold snap in Western Europe over Christmas and New Year. There are so many fundamentals - and the basic fact is that the crude oil price is $67 a barrel - but should it be up there when there is a lot of crude oil around? Adrian, it’s quite an amazing time we’ve had - maybe we could go back to what sparked the latest bounce in the crude oil price to $67 a barrel in the U.S., and around $65 for Brent crude?



    ADRIAN JACKSON: The price had come off after the hurricanes peaked in the U.S. - we got $70 and then we saw demand was slowing in the U.S. with lower gasoline sales with the high prices there, and then the north American winter came in warmer - so we tracked all the way down to $55. As you mentioned, the dispute between Russia and Ukraine on sending gas to Europe suddenly woke the markets up to the fact that we are still pretty tight on the supply side, and if you have some outage - be it gas in Europe - that has to be replaced by oil, then prices will tick up as we’re short of supply. So that was the first thing - since then obviously the unrest in Nigeria that’s caused Shell to shut 200,000 barrels a day of crude capacity, and then the ongoing concern that there may be cut-backs in Iran. They’re currently producing just under 4 million barrels a day, so they’re an important contributor to the oil market. So we’re getting into a tight period - one of the saving graces is that we’re moving into the second quarter in the northern hemisphere, where demand for oil will drop by 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day. So that will give us a little bit of respite, but we could well see spikes up above where we are today.

    LINDSAY WILLIAMS: It’s quite an interesting situation - and rather a paradoxical situation - because in fact there’s a lot of crude oil around. When you crack that barrel of crude oil into the various distillates - the various products - the simple fact is that it’s not crude that the people want, it’s the gasoline, the heating oil and other things - so is it a slightly false situation to see crude itself at $67?

    ADRIAN JACKSON: The thing is that especially in the U.S. refining capacity is extremely tight - they’re still not back to pre-hurricane levels. Now that prices have come down in the U.S. demand has been growing strongly - gasoline sales continue to grow 2% year on year - so we’re going to be tight on gasoline in the U.S., and we’re seeing a big rise in imports from both Europe and Asia into that market. So the real tightness at the moment is on refined products - as you’ve mentioned - and that’s why the refiners prefer light crude, because they can get more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from their barrels. That’s what drives up the price of the light crude. The sophisticated refineries can benefit from buying much heavier crude, which is trading at an increasingly wide discount - in the Gulf they buy Mexican crude at a $15 to $16 discount to the WTI market price.

    LINDSAY WILLIAMS: So clever hedge fund managers that focus on energy might be saying to themselves: “We’ve got this gas problem in Europe, we’ve got plentiful supplies of crude oil - but the products are in short supply.” I would imagine that there’s a lot of switching going on between energy types, and not just short-term switches - long-term switches as well. Coal seems to have been one of the recipients - in terms of price with the crisis in energy worldwide?

    ADRIAN JACKSON: Coal is, if you like, just another energy source - primarily for power generation. What you’re seeing is in the U.S. is an increasing switch to using coal-fired power stations - so the utilisation of the power stations there is much higher, and that’s displacing the gas-fired power stations where fuel costs can be three or four times that of coal. So you’re also seeing further investment in the U.S. in clean coal-fired power station technology to increase capacity there.

    LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Who would have thought it! Everyone said that coal was a dying commodity, and we’re never going to use coal again because it’s polluting and dirty - here we are back with coal again. Let’s try and make money out of this - if we’re going to be choking on coal dust for the next couple of decades as the world sorts itself out, let’s at least be rich while we’re doing it. What energy stock should we be buying?

    ADRIAN JACKSON: In the short term we are getting the benefit from higher oil prices, but as we move into the second quarter that might roll off - so I wouldn’t necessarily plum for those stocks that are levered to the oil price itself. I like the U.S. refiners - the tightness in capacity there is likely to drive refining margins. The largest of the U.S. refining stocks is a company called Valero Energy - they’ve had a phenomenal performance so far, their fundamentals are very good. Another sector - with the higher oil prices over the last couple of years, a lot of the oil companies and OPEC countries are now investing in more capacity, and oil field construction, technology, equipment - companies in that sector are seeing very strong price rises, and are benefiting from that. I like that market - the drilling companies, the equipment and service providers.

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
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AB InBev 2 5.544
Abionyx Pharma 2 29
Ablynx 43 13.356
ABN AMRO 1.582 52.503
ABO-Group 1 25
Acacia Pharma 9 24.692
Accell Group 151 4.132
Accentis 2 267
Accsys Technologies 23 10.931
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC 218 11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren 1 193
Adecco 1 1
ADMA Biologics 1 34
Adomos 1 126
AdUX 2 457
Adyen 14 17.892
Aedifica 3 927
Aegon 3.258 323.212
AFC Ajax 538 7.093
Affimed NV 2 6.306
ageas 5.844 109.909
Agfa-Gevaert 14 2.074
Ahold 3.538 74.361
Air France - KLM 1.025 35.329
AIRBUS 1 12
Airspray 511 1.258
Akka Technologies 1 18
AkzoNobel 467 13.068
Alfen 16 25.502
Allfunds Group 4 1.525
Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource) 651 4.251
Alpha Pro Tech 1 17
Alphabet Inc. 1 426
Altice 106 51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko)) 8.486 114.826
AM 228 684
Amarin Corporation 1 133
Amerikaanse aandelen 3.837 244.250
AMG 972 134.754
AMS 3 73
Amsterdam Commodities 305 6.754
AMT Holding 199 7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp 2 501
Antonov 22.632 153.605
Aperam 92 15.106
Apollo Alternative Assets 1 17
Apple 5 387
Arcadis 252 8.808
Arcelor Mittal 2.035 321.095
Archos 1 1
Arcona Property Fund 1 287
arGEN-X 17 10.379
Aroundtown SA 1 221
Arrowhead Research 5 9.758
Ascencio 1 30
ASIT biotech 2 697
ASMI 4.108 39.697
ASML 1.767 112.202
ASR Nederland 21 4.522
ATAI Life Sciences 1 7
Atenor Group 1 523
Athlon Group 121 176
Atrium European Real Estate 2 199
Auplata 1 55
Avantium 32 14.344
Axsome Therapeutics 1 177
Azelis Group 1 67
Azerion 7 3.463