Koffiekamer Terug naar discussie overzicht

OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

1. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 12:49

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Na de megastijging van gisteren olie nu een halve procent terug:
   
   www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
2. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 15:18

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   quote:

   MoneyHoneyMaker schreef:

   wap.fok.nl/pda/index.fok/60604
   
   Noren vinden gigantische voorraad steenkool
   Door Arno (Nolius) - 20 december 2005 13:40
   
   zakjapannertje had ons via de nieuws-submit te melden:
   
   Het kan zomaar zo zijn dat de wereld voor eeuwen genoeg aan steenkool heeft. Het Noorse oliebedrijf Statoil beweert namelijk dat het onder een olieveld voor de Noorse kust in de Noordzee een enorme voorraad steenkool heeft gevonden. Het zou gaan om meer dan 3000 miljard ton. Als het klopt, is het de grootste voorraad steenkool ter wereld.
   
   Het Britse oliebedrijf BP schatte onlangs nog dat de toegankelijke steenkoolreserves op onze aardbol rond de 900 miljard ton is. Statoil brengt het gebied nu in kaart en onderzoekt hoe het de vondst kan ontginnen.
   
   Steenkool kan onder andere worden gebruikt om er brandstof voor auto's van te maken.
   
   

   Noorwegen heeft enorm veel steenkool maar dat is ook enorm ontoegankelijk:
   
   "Of course the coal off Norway is terribly inaccessible. None of the resources are economically retrievable with today's technology," Kaarstad said.
   
   www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/...
   
   Geologists have known for a long time that there are vast amounts of coal in the North Sea. What we have done now, is to estimate how much there actually is, says energy advisor with Statoil New Energy, said Olav Kårstad.
   
   "By injecting oxygen, we can ignite the coal where it is. This will produce a mix of gas which we can recover and use for energy-production. The problem however, is that one of the components of this gas mix will be the greenhouse gas CO2. We have to research a lot before we can utilize the resource in a way that doesn't harm the environment."
   
   When can this be done? "Perhaps in a generation. It's impossible to say for sure at the time being", says Kårstad.
   
   Leader of Norwegian environment watchdog Bellona, Frederic Hauge, thinks that the coal reserves could be utilized in another way.
   
   "We could inject CO2-gas in the vast coalfields, and separate methane from the coal. This will not be possible for quite some time, maybe it will happen in 30 years", Hauge admits.
   
   www.energybulletin.net/11901.html
   
   
3. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 16:54

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Olie al weer in het groen. Beweegt zich rond de $ 63:
   
   www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
4. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 17:28

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Het zal el aan mij liggen, maar een prijs van $ 50? Dat staat toch volstrekt buiten de realiteit?
   En snijden in de productie...dat lijkt me ook niet een erg wijze beslissing momenteel als was het maar als signaal...
   
   Some Opec members want 1m bpd output cut
   05 January 2006
   
   JAKARTA: Some Opec members want the oil producers' cartel to cut output by about 3 per cent or 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, Indonesia's Opec governor, Maizar Rahman, said yesterday.
   
   "We see an oversupply of 2 million bpd in the second quarter. There are some Opec members who want to cut production by 1 million bpd to avoid a fall in prices," Rahman told reporters.
   
   "Indonesia wants low oil prices but not too low, and we will be happy if the WTI price is at $US50 per barrel," he said.
   
   The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' second smallest member, Indonesia suffers when oil prices are high because it pumps only about two thirds of its official crude quota and has to import more fuel than it produces.
   
   World crude oil prices averaged about 37 per cent higher in 2005 than in 2004.
   
   On Wednesday, US February light crude was down 24 cents at $US62.90 a barrel by 4.07am GMT, retaining most of Tuesday's $US2-plus gains. London Brent crude traded at $61.14, down 21 cents.
   
   Opec is considering whether to cut production in the second quarter of 2006 when it meets at the end of this month.
   
   Cartel heavyweight Iran viewed an Opec production cut of 1 million bpd a "good figure" in a newspaper interview last month. The group meets on Jan. 31 to decide production policy.
   
   The Opec president has said the cartel is likely to decide in January to cut production from the second quarter of 2006 as it expects the call on its crude to decline by 2 million barrels per day.
   
   The oil cartel, currently pumping about 30 million bpd, agreed at its meeting in December to defer any output cuts until 2006.
   
   www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3530164a6026,00.html
5. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 20:17

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Olie weer hard omhoog. Zo rond de 1% hoger:
   
   www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
6. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2006 21:41

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Olie alweer $ 63,40; op naar de $70 maar weer ?
7. [verwijderd] 5 januari 2006 08:19

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   quote:

   wollen schreef:

   Olie alweer $ 63,40; op naar de $70 maar weer ?
   

   Zonder grote incidenten verwacht ik dat niet. Ik verwacht eerder weer een terugval van een paar dollar. Stijging is volgens mij grotendeels gebaseerd geweest op conflict Rus-Oek en de problemen van Shell in Nigeria. Dat lijkt allemaal rap te zijn hersteld.
   Op de LT verwacht ik wel dat olie de $ 70 weer gaat passeren. Dit jaar zie ik dat nog wel gebeuren.
   
   Mogelijk dat de startegie van de OPEC of het weer opbouwen van de strategische oliereserves roet in mijn verhaal kunnen gooien. OPEC wil in de productie gaan snijden en de stat reserves zullen weer een keer aangevuld moeten gaan worden. Wanneer dat gebeurt...geen idee. gr postzak.
8. [verwijderd] 5 januari 2006 08:47

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Britain facing fresh oil supply crisis, warn independents
   By Michael Harrison Business Editor
   Published: 04 January 2006
   Britain is in the grip of a fresh oil crisis, with supplies to hospitals, petrol stations and households all under threat, according to independent wholesalers and retailers.
   
   NHS Trusts on interruptible gas contracts have begun frantically shopping around for oil supplies to heat hospitals, while petrol stations in the South-east are said to be begging independent wholesalers for fresh stocks.
   
   Some heating oil distributors are reported to be refusing to supply business or domestic customers because they do not know when they will be able to get new stocks, and householders who rely on oil to heat their homes are facing delays in getting supplies just as the country braces itself for a cold snap.
   
   The Association of UK Oil Independents (AUKOI), which represents the country's largest privately owned distributors and importers and all of the major supermarket chains apart from Asda, fears that once the extent of the problem emerges it will trigger panic buying, making the crisis still worse. There were reports last night of petrol stations in north-west London running out of supplies, with motorists having to drive miles to fill up.
   
   The looming crisis has been caused by a combination of factors such as bad weather, Hurricane Katrina, the Buncefield oil depot fire and fears that the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over gas supplies would cause a run on oil. But it has been exacerbated by the sharp rise in gas prices, which has prompted some gas-fired power stations to switch to gasoil and kerosene. This has reduced the amount of refining capacity available to produce petrol and diesel and also threatens to squeeze supplies of home heating oil which many householders in rural areas rely upon.
   
   Even though the state-owned Russian gas company Gazprom restored supplies to Europe yesterday, crude oil prices leapt by more than $1 to $62.40 - their highest level since late October - while UK wholesale gas prices rose as much as 8 per cent.
   
   Phil Maud, the chairman of AUKOI and chief petrol manager for the Morrisons supermarket chain, said diesel supplies were particularly tight in the south-west of England because of a shortage of refining capacity. He also said he had heard of hospitals on interruptible gas supplies shopping around for oil before Christmas and gas-fired stations switching to kerosene, which had put pressure on supplies of domestic heating oil.
   
   "The problems are rooted in what is happening in the gas industry and the problems the gas power stations are having in getting supplies. They have increased their use of other oil products and that has meant a lot of other users are having serious issues in getting hold of supplies," Mr Maud said.
   
   He said that although petrol supplies were "tight", independent retailers and fuel suppliers had got around supply problems by drawing stocks from oil storage facilities on the Thames. But other sources said demand had been so heavy that these had run dry in the week before Christmas. He added that there was no danger of the UK running out of petrol but warned that if there was another incident similar to the Buncefield fire at one of the Scottish or east coast oil depots then it could have a serious impact because of the UK's reliance on transporting fuel shipments from coastal sites into the centre of the country.
   
   Oil companies have been urging the Government to set up a state-funded agency to run Britain's strategic stockpile of oil products but the Department for Trade and Industry says it is the responsibility of the industry. Under international rules, countries are obliged to hold a 90-day stockpile. Because of its North Sea oil reserves, the UK has a derogation, requiring refiners to hold only 67.5 days' supply and non-refiners such as supermarkets 48.5 days' but this will end in the next few years as the UK's oil reserves run down.
   
   Britain is in the grip of a fresh oil crisis, with supplies to hospitals, petrol stations and households all under threat, according to independent wholesalers and retailers.
   
   NHS Trusts on interruptible gas contracts have begun frantically shopping around for oil supplies to heat hospitals, while petrol stations in the South-east are said to be begging independent wholesalers for fresh stocks.
   
   Some heating oil distributors are reported to be refusing to supply business or domestic customers because they do not know when they will be able to get new stocks, and householders who rely on oil to heat their homes are facing delays in getting supplies just as the country braces itself for a cold snap.
   
   The Association of UK Oil Independents (AUKOI), which represents the country's largest privately owned distributors and importers and all of the major supermarket chains apart from Asda, fears that once the extent of the problem emerges it will trigger panic buying, making the crisis still worse. There were reports last night of petrol stations in north-west London running out of supplies, with motorists having to drive miles to fill up.
   
   The looming crisis has been caused by a combination of factors such as bad weather, Hurricane Katrina, the Buncefield oil depot fire and fears that the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over gas supplies would cause a run on oil. But it has been exacerbated by the sharp rise in gas prices, which has prompted some gas-fired power stations to switch to gasoil and kerosene. This has reduced the amount of refining capacity available to produce petrol and diesel and also threatens to squeeze supplies of home heating oil which many householders in rural areas rely upon.
   
   Even though the state-owned Russian gas company Gazprom restored supplies to Europe yesterday, crude oil prices leapt by more than $1 to $62.40 - their highest level since late October - while UK wholesale gas prices rose as much as 8 per cent.
   Phil Maud, the chairman of AUKOI and chief petrol manager for the Morrisons supermarket chain, said diesel supplies were particularly tight in the south-west of England because of a shortage of refining capacity. He also said he had heard of hospitals on interruptible gas supplies shopping around for oil before Christmas and gas-fired stations switching to kerosene, which had put pressure on supplies of domestic heating oil.
   
   "The problems are rooted in what is happening in the gas industry and the problems the gas power stations are having in getting supplies. They have increased their use of other oil products and that has meant a lot of other users are having serious issues in getting hold of supplies," Mr Maud said.
   
   He said that although petrol supplies were "tight", independent retailers and fuel suppliers had got around supply problems by drawing stocks from oil storage facilities on the Thames. But other sources said demand had been so heavy that these had run dry in the week before Christmas. He added that there was no danger of the UK running out of petrol but warned that if there was another incident similar to the Buncefield fire at one of the Scottish or east coast oil depots then it could have a serious impact because of the UK's reliance on transporting fuel shipments from coastal sites into the centre of the country.
   
   Oil companies have been urging the Government to set up a state-funded agency to run Britain's strategic stockpile of oil products but the Departm
9. [verwijderd] 5 januari 2006 11:27

   auteur info

   • [verwijderd]

     Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

     Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

   • Aanbevelingen

     Ontvangen: 0

     Gegeven: 0

   •    Aantal posts: 0

   Weet iemand meer over het Noorse bedrijf Statoil.
   
   De koers is het afgelopen jaar met zo'n 70% gestegen, in tegenstelling tot de andere oliemaatschappijen:
   
   www.behr.nl/Beurs/Fondsh/GIFsets/eu_t...
   
   Ik heb wel interesse om daarin te beleggen, maar weet eigenlijk wat te weinig van ze.
   
   www.statoil.com
10. [verwijderd] 6 januari 2006 13:36

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Jan. 6, 2006, 4:20AM
    Oil Prices Up; Natural Gas Prices Rise
    
    © 2006 The Associated Press
    
    SINGAPORE — Oil prices rose Friday and natural gas regained ground as well after a mild start to winter in the United States had pushed prices to a four and a half month low.
    
    Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 33 cents to $63.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude gained 39 cents to $61.52 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
    
    Heating oil was up half a cent to $1.7936 a gallon, while gasoline rose nearly that much to $1.7901 a gallon. Prices have been in an uptrend since mid-December, and analysts are cautioning that the cost of refined products such as gasoline are likely to rise as the year progresses.
    
    Natural gas rose 30 cents to $9.799 per 1,000 cubic feet, regaining ground lost a day earlier as mild weather tempered traders' supply concerns and the U.S. Energy Department data showed a surprising increase in natural gas inventories last week.
    
    February natural gas futures had slid 69.8 cents to settle at $9.499 Thursday, the lowest settlement for the front-month contract since Aug. 19, when futures closed at $9.111. Natural gas prices then soared in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina's destruction of Gulf of Mexico platforms, pipelines and processing plants, and the front-month contract hit its peak of $15.78 on Dec. 13.
    
    In its weekly natural gas report, the Energy Department said underground storage of natural gas in the lower 48 states totaled 2.64 trillion cubic feet last week, an increase of 1 billion cubic feet from the prior week that left inventories 3 percent below year-ago levels. Analysts had been expecting a small decline in inventories.
    
    In a separate report, the Energy Department said commercially available supplies of crude oil declined last week by 1 million barrels to 321.6 million barrels, or 12.5 percent above year ago levels.
    
    Among the flurry of data released by the Energy Department was a detail that highlighted one impact of soaring energy prices in 2005: For the first time since 2001, total demand for petroleum and related products declined from the previous year. Energy demand is closely linked to overall economic activity.
    
    www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/busin...
12. [verwijderd] 6 januari 2006 13:43

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Olie al weer ruim boven de $ 63:
    
    www.gcitrading.com/gci_cfd_charts.htm
13. [verwijderd] 6 januari 2006 21:42

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Oil Market PH: Post Hurricanes
    
    By Adam Porter
    06 Jan 2006 at 12:19 PM EST
    
    PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- As Resource Investor pointed out in the third and fourth quarters last year, there was only one story in town. They were the twin hurricanes, Katrina and Rita, which hit the American oil and gas infrastructure.
    
    As the effects of the hurricanes unwound many of the panic theories were dispensed with along the way. There was no “global energy crisis” of any major duration as Claude Mandil of the International Energy Agency (IEA) had postulated.
    
    Any dip in demand in the U.S. came from the physical effects of the hurricanes. Destroyed cars and lorries, destroyed filling stations, destroyed air conditioners, fridges, televisions and lives. There was no long term “demand destruction” caused by gasoline pricing.
    
    As we repeatedly offered to our readers the basis for the post-hurricane bear trend, was profit taking. With prices hitting $70.85 traders would have had to have been blind to the opportunities presented to them. Had they not shorted the market in the run-up to the year’s end, pigs would have flown.
    
    The market searched for a new floor. It did so with those very same record levels of short positions. The floor was found at $55. The only way that this new floor price can be broken, on the downside, would be a major geo-political event. Or a sudden and unexpected recession. The former is far more likely than the latter.
    
    So in effect the market is being rebooted. It is going back to the default settings it had before the hurricanes blew its registry away. The same basic underlying principles are applying themselves. And the price of crude has risen.
    
    As we enter 2006 there are several bullish indicators for oil. Don Coxe, Global Portfolio Strategist at the Bank of Montreal’s financial group Nesbitt Burns is worried about the dollar. Will a stuttering Republican administration lose in mid-term elections?
    
    “The Republican coalition of businesspeople, traditional conservatives, neo-conservatives, libertarians and evangelicals is under severe strain,” said Coxe.
    
    Economically the unwinding of Republican economic positions gives rise to concerns over the dollar.
    
    “The only long-term policy that can give the U.S. a chance to regain its
    
    internal economic health…is to get the dollar back to where it was in the
    
    Clinton era before the tech-driven dollar bull market pushed the greenback to job-destroying heights,” said Coxe. “We believe that the dollar will inevitably be devalued and that gold will perform inversely to the greenback. If the fall doesn't come in 2006, then the ultimate devaluation will have to be deeper.”
    
    If the dollar falls once can expect the price of oil to rise. Maybe not in direct relation, but it puts pressure on producers, paid in dollars, to get a better return.
    
    Global inventories are tight and possibly tightening. The U.S. inventory growth year-on-year before Katrina was 43.1 million barrels. It is currently 43.8 million barrels, basically flat. Meanwhile in the world’s second biggest economy Japan inventories have actually fallen year-on-year by 41.8 million barrels.
    
    Output from a variety of regions and fields has peaked. The British north sea is now producing 50% less than it was five years ago. “Total indigenous U.K. production of crude oil and NGLs in the third quarter of 2005 decreased by 12.8% compared with 2004,” admitted the U.K. government.
    
    “Seven new fields started production after September 2004 but production from these fields was insufficient to make up for the general decline in production from older established fields. The U.K. was a net importer of oil and oil products in the third quarter of 2005.”
    
    Burgan in Kuwait and Cantarell in Mexico the second and third biggest fields have started their decline. Oilcast.com ran an exclusive interview with one Pemex engineer who said he believed oil production was “in the middle of the Hubbert curve.”
    
    Non-OPEC supply growth, as Resource Investor has pointed out, was nearly flat in 2005, despite IEA forecasts of growth of over 1.3 million barrels per day.
    
    Yet demand continues apace. Somewhat opaque Chinese figures put their economic growth forecasts at 9% in 2006. U.S. demand is at record levels. The economic cycle looks a good way from any stall. Complex refineries that process discounted heavy crude are not yet abundant enough.
    
    The market is back where it was before the distortions of the hurricanes - cautiously bullish, uncertain and potentially volatile.
    
    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
14. [verwijderd] 6 januari 2006 21:50

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Oil hits 2-month high over $64
    Prices climb on Middle East supply fears and higher prices for crude-related products.
    January 6, 2006: 3:46 PM EST
    
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil jumped over $64 Friday to fresh two-month highs as instability in the Middle East and other key oil-producing regions sparked supply concerns.
    
    Light, sweet crude for February delivery climbed $1.42 to $64.21 a barrel, after rising as high as $64.45 earlier in the session -- the highest level since mid-October.
    
    Friday's gains extended a rise of more than $5 since late last week as investors poured fresh money into market to capitalize on the strength of commodities.
    
    Analysts said recent events in West Africa and the Middle East underlined concerns about the security of supplies from developing countries, which control a large share of the world's energy resources.
    
    "This just rams home how much the Western world is dependent upon the 'Wild West' for its energy supplies, whether its West Africa or the Middle East or Russia," said Ian Henderson at JP Morgan Fleming in London.
    
    Recent weeks have seen attacks on Nigeria's oil pipelines, a Russia-Ukraine dispute over natural gas prices that briefly cut European supplies, and closure of Iraq's biggest refinery due to security threats.
    
    Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's life-threatening stroke this week and growing concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions have also kept the market on edge.
    
    "There has been a marked ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions this week," said Kevin Norrish, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital.
    
    However, gains were seen limited after an increase in U.S. distillate and natural gas stocks last week.
    
    Analysts pointed to warmer temperatures across most of the country as reasons for the distillate build and the jump of 1 billion cubic feet in stocks of natural gas -- a key utility fuel in the Northeast and Midwest.
    
    Distillate demand slid 10 percent last week on the milder weather, government data released Thursday showed. Crude stocks fell by a less-than-expected 1 million barrels.
    
    Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a television interview that U.S. oil and gas inventory levels were "fairly encouraging," but high energy prices remained a concern.
    
    money.cnn.com/2006/01/06/markets/oil....
15. [verwijderd] 7 januari 2006 12:29

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Is Ramirez hard op z'n hoofd gevallen?????
    
    OPEC Urged to Defend Int'l Oil Prices
    
    CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's oil minister on Friday urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to take steps to defend international oil prices, warning that recent increases could be temporary.
    
    Rafael Ramirez said fellow OPEC-member nations "have to take every measure to defend the price" of oil at the organization's Jan. 31 meeting in Vienna. He did not say whether of not output should be cut in an effort to boost oil prices.
    
    news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/pr...
16. [verwijderd] 8 januari 2006 21:11

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Oil imports fuel looming energy crisis
    
    RICHARD ORANGE
    
    THE WORLD'S top energy watchdog has warned that the UK economy will become a net importer of oil this year for the first time in more than a decade - three years earlier than the government has predicted.
    
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that North Sea oil production will dip below 1.7m barrels per day this year, forcing the economy to rely on more imported supplies to meet demand.
    
    The warning follows the Russian decision to shut off gas to Europe that thrust energy security into the foreground and further emphasises the extent of the British government's failure to anticipate energy threats to the economy.
    
    It will also encourage more criticism of Chancellor Gordon Brown's raid on North Sea profits in his November pre-budget report - which has already caused Shell to cut back its UK exploration and production programme and prompted every oil company in the North Sea to review its activities.
    
    The International Energy Agency's supply analyst David Fyfe, said: "Given expected oil production this year of below 1.7m barrels per day, the UK faces the prospect of becoming a net crude importer again this year for the first time since 1992."
    
    The IEA sees UK oil demand for 2007 of more than 1.8m barrels per day, which it expects North Sea production will only be able to match for the first three months of the year.
    
    Output is projected to fall to 1.65m barrels per day between March and June, and to 1.55m barrels per day between July and September, before rebounding slightly to 1.66m barrels per day in the last three months.
    
    The government's more optimistic forecasts do not see the UK becoming a net importer until 2010.
    
    Fyfe said: "In the last three years production has declined every year more than 200,000 barrels per day or more. We are looking at the slate of projects coming up and we are not factoring in any of the unexpected outages which have happened in the past few years."
    
    The IEA's warnings raise the prospect that the government may turn out to be as badly wrong-footed by the decline of UK oil production as it was by the decline of UK gas - a failure which has put the UK on the edge of a gas crisis this winter.
    
    A spokesman for the Department of Trade and Industry, which is responsible for the North Sea said: "We do on occasions become a net importer of oil for certain months, but for the year overall we are not net importers. We think that, by 2010, we will become net importers for the year as a whole."
    
    Although the IEA has not yet completed its forecast for 2007, Fyfe said production may creep back above demand thanks to the Buzzard field coming on stream. But any recovery is not likely to be prolonged.
    
    The news will also come as a shock to UK oil producers who share the government's optimistic forecast.
    
    A spokeswoman for the UK Offshore Operators Association, which represents North Sea producers said: "We believe we will be self-sufficient in oil until the end of the decade, although we are in the process of updating our figures."
    
    Peter Spencer, chief economist for UK Item Club, which uses the same economic forecasting models as the Treasury, said the shift would be mainly symbolic for the UK economy.
    
    He said: "What really matters for the UK economy isn't how much oil production we have, or even oil prices, but interest rates."
    
    He added: "We were in such a hurry to exploit all our oil and gas resources that we burnt it all off when prices were cheap."
    
    scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/busines...
17. [verwijderd] 9 januari 2006 18:27

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Oil holds above $63
    Prices move lower as mild weather hits parts of the U.S., but fund buying still strong.
    January 9, 2006: 11:18 AM EST
    
    LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices turned lower Monday, dragged lower by mild U.S. weather, though turmoil in the Middle East curbed losses.
    
    U.S. light sweet crude for February delivery fell 56 cents to $63.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    
    U.S. demand for heating fuels was expected to be about 34 percent below normal this week because of mild temperatures in the main heating regions of the country, the National Weather Service said Monday.
    
    "Concern about Iran resuming nuclear processing seems to be the only driver," said Kyle Cooper, analyst at Citigroup in Houston. "U.S. weather remains bearish for the next two weeks."
    
    U.S. crude had risen to a three-month high of $64.61 early in the session, boosted by a wave of fund-buying that had pushed prices more than $6 higher since late December.
    
    Middle Eastern tension has also supported prices.
    
    Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon last week suffered a massive stroke and medical consensus is that he will be unable to return to politics, creating a void in the Middle East peace process.
    
    Oil producer Iran was also causing concern as Tehran confirmed it would resume research on nuclear fuel.
    
    European and U.S. officials said that if Iran went ahead with the research, diplomatic efforts to resolve the row would be endangered and Tehran could be referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions.
    
    But for now supplies appear to be ample.
    
    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets at the end of the month to reconsider output policy. Ministers have so far indicated there is no need to cut output in the second quarter because prices are stable and demand is strong.
    
    money.cnn.com/2006/01/09/markets/oil....
18. [verwijderd] 10 januari 2006 17:32

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Rusland voert olieproductie langzaam op
    Rusland voerde zijn productie van ruwe olie vorig jaar met 2,4 procent op in vergelijking met het jaar ervoor. Daarmee kwam de dagelijkse productie op gemiddeld 9,44 miljoen vaten (van 159 liter) uit.
    
    Record
    In totaal haalden de Russen vorig jaar ruim 470 miljoen ton olie naar boven. Daarmee heeft Rusland zijn hoogste olieproductie bereikt sinds het uiteenvallen van de Sovjet-Unie in 1991, aldus het Russische departement van Energie.
    
    December
    Alleen al in december wist Rusland, na Saoedi-Arabië het grootste olieproducerende land ter wereld, 40.816 miljoen ton olie te winnen. Dat is een stijging van 3,4 procent ten opzichte van december 2004.
    
    Yukos
    Toch lag de groei van de olieproductie in 2005 onder het niveau van de jaren ervoor. Dat komt waarschijnlijk door belastingverhogingen en de harde aanpak van de oliemaatschappij Yukos door het Kremlin. Dat maakte investeerders terughoudender. In de periode van 2000 tot 2004 kende Rusland een gemiddelde groei van de olieproductie van 8,5 procent per jaar.
    
    Export
    De export van ruwe olie daalde het afgelopen jaar met 1 procent tot 251 miljoen ton. De productie van aardgas ging met 1 procent een fractie omhoog tot 640,6 miljard kubieke meter. Rusland exporteerde vorig jaar 8 procent meer aardgas dan in het jaar ervoor. Het voerde in 2005 rond 152,5 miljard kubieke meter gas uit.
    
    www.rtl.nl/(/financien/rtlz/home/)/co...
19. [verwijderd] 10 januari 2006 19:07

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Meer productie in 2005 en minder export dan in 2004 zegt genoeg.
    Ook de economische groei in Rusland slokt meer olie voor het binnenlands verbruik.
    Misschien zeggen we anno 2007 wel dat 2006 het jaar van "peak oil" was.
    fes
    
20. [verwijderd] 10 januari 2006 19:17

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    quote:

    fes schreef:

    Meer productie in 2005 en minder export dan in 2004 zegt genoeg.
    Ook de economische groei in Rusland slokt meer olie voor het binnenlands verbruik.
    Misschien zeggen we anno 2007 wel dat 2006 het jaar van "peak oil" was.
    fes
    
    

    Ja ik zat nog te twijfelen in welke draad ik de posting zou doen, deze of in "peak oil".
21. [verwijderd] 11 januari 2006 17:11

    auteur info

    • [verwijderd]

      Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001

      Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001

    • Aanbevelingen

      Ontvangen: 0

      Gegeven: 0

    •    Aantal posts: 0

    Olie reageert nauwelijks op de cijfers over de olievoorraden. Er was aanvankelijk wel een aardige daling te bespeuren, maar al snel herstelde de prijs zich weer tot +/- $63 per vat:
    
    www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp