Bache schreef op 8 september 2014 08:59:
ING blijft zeer positief, Kopen en KD van 18.00 euro:
Gepubliceerd maandag 8 september
Investment summary
SBM Offshore’s investment case stands firm. We believe there is too much focus on the bribery case, from the amount of the charge (US$240m mentioned) to the company
being barred from doing business in Brazil for a couple of years. Given that SBM is able to give an amount, we believe the outcome will be made public in 4Q14. We think the delay is being caused by the US and Dutch authorities’ needing time to agree on all points and SBM’s aim to be free from this case worldwide. The Brazil outcome is unknown but will, in our view, take a couple of months to be resolved. In the meantime, we believe Petrobras is politically bound not to invite SBM Offshore to tender.
Following lower than expected 1H14 results, due to adifficult comparison with 1H13 as in 1H14 there were no deliveries or paid cancellations, our 2014F EPS is US$2.13 excluding the net charge of $240m. For 2H14 there should be important deliveries of Kizomba and Ihlabela, supporting margins in 2H14. The 2015F outlook is good mainly as Ihlabela and Kizomba will contribute to earnings for the full year. The main risk is
that the turnkey orderbook dries up, leading to idle engineers. We expect orders to come in for turrets but no FPSOs wins. The balance sheet is no more than okay due to the high investments of c.US$4bn in three FPSOs until 2016. The US$240m charge will bring solvency down to 27.5%, around 2.5% above SBM’s limit of 25%.
In our view, SBM Offshore is on track to become one of the best companies in this niche of the oil services industry thanks to a cultural change within the company but also as it one of the most advanced in terms of developing business relationships. Industry demand is high for FPSOs as the fastest and (generally) cheapest solution for deep water where infra is lacking. At the same time, SBM is valued at an undemanding 37% discount to its SOTP of €19. Until the bribery case is resolved, we apply a discount of €1 to our SOTP, which gives us our TP of €18.