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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

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  1. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 09:58

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    quote:

    Munte maken schreef:

    denk ook dat de olie nog een paar procenten omhoog gaat deze week en daarna weer lekker naar beneden.
    Het is vreemd, de olie staat een half procent lager vandaag, maar ABN schrijft +1,5 %.

    Met mijn turbos win ik dus zo'n 6%, maar de olieprijs daalt.
  2. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 10:35

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    Oil companies likely to report record profits
    By Mathew Carr
    Bloomberg News

    Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc the world's three biggest publicly traded oil companies, will probably report record second-quarter profits because of surging oil and gas prices, analyst surveys showed.
    BP, based in London, on Tuesday may say second-quarter earnings rose 44 percent to $5.6 billion, according to the median of estimate from six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Exxon Mobil may report on Thursday that profit rose to about $8 billion from $5.8 billion a year earlier, according to Credit Suisse. Shell, which reports on the same day, may say net income jumped 46 percent to $5.4 billion, the Bloomberg survey found.
    Oil prices in the second quarter headed toward the July 7 record of $62.10 a barrel in New York, while BP told investors on July 5 that refining margins widened in the period, led by gains in Asian markets. The world's 70 biggest oil companies this year may report combined net income of $230 billion, Merrill Lynch & Co. forecast. The total is almost as big as Poland's economy.
    "People are getting drunk on the high hydrocarbon-price environment," said Bertie Thomson, who helps oversee about $6 billion in European stocks at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London. "They will be impressive numbers."
    Most of the increase in profit is coming from higher prices, rather than rising oil and gas production, according to Credit Suisse First Boston analysts including Edward Westlake.
    "Volume growth continues to prove elusive," according to a July 20 report from the securities firm. Exxon Mobil shares this year have risen 16 percent in New York, while BP rallied 23 percent in London, where Shell Transport & Trading Co. shares have gained 19 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up 1.8 percent this year.
    As profits surge, investors are calling for oil companies to buy back stock and increase dividends. Also, a round of acquisitions is sweeping the industry.

    'Extra Cash'
    Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S.-based company, last week bid $17.1 billion for Unocal Corp., seeking to thwart a competing offer from Cnooc Ltd. of China. Morgan Stanley analysts including Neil Perry in London wrote this month they expect a "further round of consolidation" for the oil industry.
    "The interesting thing for us is what management will do with the extra cash," said Thomson at Aberdeen.
    Brent crude oil prices averaged $51.63 a barrel in the quarter, 46 percent more than the $35.32-a-barrel average a year earlier, BP reported earlier this month in a preview of the period for investors. New York oil prices gained 39 percent to average $53.08, BP said.
    "Chronic industry underinvestment through the 1990s has resulted in a squeeze in available capacity in several key parts of the industry complex, supported by a recent strong pick-up in energy demand," said a July 18 note from Merrill, including analyst Mark Iannotti in London.

    Prices to Stay High
    Credit Suisse First Boston forecast oil prices, which were trading at about $58 a barrel last week, may fall to $50 a barrel in 2006, not as far as the $30 some oil companies are assuming.
    "We do not envisage an oil price in the $30s this decade," Westlake's team wrote.
    Finding new reserves and raising production is increasingly difficult. Two-thirds of Shell's most prospective wells in 2004 were dry holes, and oil output won't rise until 2007, Chief Executive Officer Jeroen van der Veer said in February.
    Shell, based in The Hague, said July 14 that costs to develop its Sakhalin field in Russia, the world's largest oil and gas project, may double to $20 billion because of soaring metal prices, higher contractor fees and a declining U.S. dollar. The project is the centerpiece of the company's efforts to revive production and increase reserves by drilling new wells, rather than through acquisitions.
    "The results are not set to be spectacular, with the upstream still reporting flat volume growth and higher costs," Angus McPhail, an analyst at ING Financial Markets in Edinburgh, said in a note dated July 21 and titled "Still Unsure of Shell." McPhail rates Shell "hold."

    BP Grows
    Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil, which pumps more oil than every OPEC member except Saudi Arabia and Iran, this year may show little growth in production before it rises 5 percent in 2006 as supplies expand in Nigeria, Angola, Russia, Qatar and Azerbaijan, said Daniel Barcelo, an analyst at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York who rates Exxon Mobil shares neutral.
    On July 5, BP said growth in second-quarter oil and gas production slowed to 3.5 percent amid higher taxes and restrictions on exports in Russia.
    Output was 4.11 million barrels a day, the company said, compared with the 3.97 million barrels a day for the year-earlier period. The growth rate was less than a fourth of the 18 percent gain in the second quarter of last year, when Russian output rose faster.

    Tilting Rig
    The increase in Russian production and from other nations "offset the declines in the U.S. and U.K.," said Neil McMahon, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., in a research report dated July 21. McMahon rates BP stock "outperform."
    Refinery shutdowns and "weak gas marketing" prompted Merrill's Iannotti, who rates BP "neutral," to reduce his second- quarter profit forecast for the company to $5.67 billion from $5.73 billion, his note said.
    BP last week righted its tilting $1 billion Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico, after spending a week securing its hull in the wake of Hurricane Dennis. The company on July 12 said it found the structure, the world's largest rig of its kind, listing at about a 20 degree angle. The platform was scheduled to start output before the end of the year.
    BP's global production was expected to rise to about 5 million barrels a day by 2008, the company forecast in February.

    Thunder Horse
    BP owns 75 percent of Thunder Horse, and Exxon Mobil the rest. Investors want more information tomorrow on whether any damage to Thunder Horse will hurt output expansion. Tony Shepard, an analyst at Charles Stanley & Co. Ltd. in London, said he hopes BP's production forecast "hasn't been blown off course."
    BP officials have so far declined to comment on whether Thunder Horse production will be delayed.
    Exxon Mobil has beaten analysts' forecasts in four of the past five quarters, while BP has surpassed expectations in three of the past five, according to Bloomberg data.

    deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,600151081,00.html
  3. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 10:58

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    Oil slips, China growth seen weak
    By Jonathan Leff

    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices cruised lower on Monday after this year's seventh tropical storm made landfall and Chinese data showed another month of anemic demand.

    U.S. light, sweet crude oil futures traded down 42 cents to $58.23 a barrel having earlier hit $58.89 a barrel, its highest level in a week after Friday's 3 percent leap.

    London Brent crude lost 49 cents to $57.09 a barrel.

    Prices surged last week as dealers opted to cover short positions ahead of the weekend, fearing a fresh tropical storm might disrupt supplies in the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. production and nearly all of Mexico's output.

    But Tropical Storm Gert made landfall overnight, sparing major facilities after forcing Mexico to shut one of its main export terminals for less than a day, officials said.

    The strongest start to the annual Atlantic hurricane season on record has heightened traders' worries about the impact of storms like last year's Hurricane Ivan, which disrupted output for months after tearing up pipelines and platforms.

    The storm season, which lasts through November, has thus far shut in just over 6 million barrels of Gulf of Mexico output, U.S. government figures showed.

    CHINA DATA FOCUS

    The market absorbed another batch of relatively weak monthly oil trade data from China, the world's No. 2 energy consumer, which traders had been counting on to deliver strong growth, keeping oil prices supported well above $50 a barrel.

    Although consumption was expected to rise in August after Beijing's retail price rise and yuan revaluation lifted refiners' margins, official June data showed implied demand up only 0.7 percent, according to Reuters calculations.

    Beijing's policy of capping prices well below international levels has curbed sales on the domestic market and prompted refiners to maximize exports, effectively limiting usage.

    Higher hydropower and coal-fired generation has also replaced some oil demand in electricity, analysts say.

    "There is not as much demand... this year, with the high rainfall and more transportation available to get coal to power plants," said Victor Shum at Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

    China's crude oil imports edged 0.1 percent lower in June versus last year, while first-half imports were up 3.9 percent, a sharp slowing from last year's 35 percent rise, data showed on Monday. Imports of diesel and fuel oil also fell.

    Oil traders were also weighing the impact of recent violence on oil prices, as the deadly bomb attacks in Egypt's Sharm al-Sheikh resort at the weekend served a reminder of the potential for disruptions from Middle East crude exporters.

    But a second set of blasts in London last week raised concerns about the negative impact on economic growth in Europe, something that could undermine oil demand this year.

    Hurricanes, the yuan and bombings last week overshadowed concerns about supplies during the fourth quarter, which have been gradually soothed by nine consecutive rises in U.S. inventories of distillates, including heating oil and diesel.

    U.S. crude oil stocks also remained well above the seasonal average, falling less than expected last week. Stocks could slide more sharply this week due to a nearly week-long halt to Mexican exports due to Hurricane Emily.

    sg.biz.yahoo.com/050725/3/3tpk2.html
  4. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 11:21

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    Mandje OPEC verder naar beneden:

    OPEC Weekly Basket Price Down $2.07 To $52.02/Bbl

    LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The value of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of seven crude oils fell $2.07 to average $52.02 a barrel last week, down from $54.09/bbl the previous week, OPEC said Monday.

    OPEC's basket of 11 oils which includes Sahara, Minas, Iran Heavy, Basra Light, Kuwait Export, Es Sider, Bonny, Qatar Marine, Arab Light, Murban and BCF 17 (Furrial).

    OPEC devised a new basket after members complained the old basket overstated the value of the group's output.

    They pushed for a basket that better represented grades that are higher in sulfur and, as such, relatively cheaper.

    On January 30, OPEC suspended its official $22 to $28 a barrel price band because concerns about global stability have pushed oil prices up sharply, rendering it irrelevant.

    Week Ending
    Jul 21 $52.02
    Jul 14 $54.09
    Jul 07 $53.90
    Jun 30 $53.19
    Jun 23 $52.45
    Jun 16 $51.62
    Jun 09 $50.73
    Jun 02 $48.57
    May 26 $46.02
    May 19 $45.20
    May 12 $47.34
    May 05 $47.55
    Apr 28 $49.60
    Apr 21 $48.00
    Apr 14 $48.86
    Apr 07 $52.07
    Mar 31 $49.16
    Mar 24 $50.72
    Mar 17 $50.14
    Mar 10 $48.80
    Mar 03 $46.59
    Feb 24 $43.95
    Feb 17 $41.68
    Feb 10 $40.13
    Feb 03 $40.97

    Month Ending
    Jun 05 $52.04
    May 05 $46.96
    Apr 05 $49.63
    Mar 05 $49.07
    Feb 05 $41.68
    Jan 05 $40.24
    Dec 04 $35.70
    Nov 04 $38.96
    Oct 04 $45.37
    Sep 04 $40.36
    Aug 04 $40.27
    Jul 04 $36.29
    Jun 04 $34.61
    May 04 $36.27
    Apr 04 $32.35

    Quarter Average
    2Q05 $49.34
    1Q05 $44.08
    4Q04 $35.72
    3Q04 $39.07
    2Q04 $34.42
    1Q04 $30.75
    4Q03 $28.86
    3Q03 $27.38
    2Q03 $25.85

    Year Average
    2005 $47.40 (up to July 21)
    2004 $36.05
    2003 $28.10
    2002 $24.36
    2001 $23.12
    2000 $27.60

    -By Tim Falconer, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9449; tim.falconer@ dowjones.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory....
  6. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 11:40

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    Olieprijs verder naar beneden volgens Min. v. Fin v. Rusland:

    Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the government forecast that in 2006 the price of crude oil will be around $40, and the Russia’s draft budget plan will be based on that figure.

    “The oil price grew steadily over recent years exceeding all the forecasts,” the minister said. “Nobody had anticipated such a growth for many years.”

    This year, the oil price will stand at $48 per barrel, according to adjusted forecasts, the minister said.

    www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.ph...
  7. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 12:16

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    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Olieprijs verder naar beneden volgens Min. v. Fin v. Rusland:

    Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the government forecast that in 2006 the price of crude oil will be around $40, and the Russia’s draft budget plan will be based on that figure.

    “The oil price grew steadily over recent years exceeding all the forecasts,” the minister said. “Nobody had anticipated such a growth for many years.”

    This year, the oil price will stand at $48 per barrel, according to adjusted forecasts, the minister said.

    www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.ph...
    48$!?
    Is dat niet een beetje overdreven?
  13. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 14:37

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    Weer goed???

    We staan megahoog!!!!

    Je moet echt niet verbaast zijn als we ee keer terug gaan naar $ 45 of zo.

    Mogelijk dat van de winter de prijzen weer fors gaan stijgen...zeker bij een strenge winter in de VS.
    Het kan ook zo zijn dat de prijzen volgende week weer de pan uitrijzen wanneer er een orkaan over de Golf van Mexico gaat bijvoorbeeld.

    Aan de andere kant viel de olieconsumptie in China wat tegen...alweer. Dat kan duiden op minder groei daar en dus op minder vraag naar olie...prijs gaat dan zeker verder down.

    Ik weet niet met welke bril jij kijkt. Ben je een LT of een KT belegger?
    Heb je olieaandelen voor de LT...dan hoef je je geen zorgen te maken. Olie gaat up op de LT...dat is haast niet te vermijden. Of r moet heel rap een vervanger van olie komen in al zijn facetten. Ik verwacht dat nog lang niet!
  15. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 14:41

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    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Weer goed???

    We staan megahoog!!!!

    Je moet echt niet verbaast zijn als we ee keer terug gaan naar $ 45 of zo.

    Mogelijk dat van de winter de prijzen weer fors gaan stijgen...zeker bij een strenge winter in de VS.
    Het kan ook zo zijn dat de prijzen volgende week weer de pan uitrijzen wanneer er een orkaan over de Golf van Mexico gaat bijvoorbeeld.

    Aan de andere kant viel de olieconsumptie in China wat tegen...alweer. Dat kan duiden op minder groei daar en dus op minder vraag naar olie...prijs gaat dan zeker verder down.

    Ik weet niet met welke bril jij kijkt. Ben je een LT of een KT belegger?
    Heb je olieaandelen voor de LT...dan hoef je je geen zorgen te maken. Olie gaat up op de LT...dat is haast niet te vermijden. Of r moet heel rap een vervanger van olie komen in al zijn facetten. Ik verwacht dat nog lang niet!
    Misschien wist je het niet,ik ben Emil G.C. Kaffa (Die ene met die olie turbo's.)
    Ik heb mijn naam veranderd...dit is een anagram.

    Maar goed, mijn olieturbo's...ik ben een korte tot ml termijn belegger.
    Ik heb die turbo's al redelijk hoog gekocht, dus nu verkopen met veel verlies zie ik ook weer niet zitten.
    Aangezien wat nog komen kan, houd ik mijn posities zo lang als nodig is.
  18. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 19:53

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    Productie Rusland 2005 hoger + voorspelling van de olieprijs de komende jaren (????????????)

    Russia's oil output, exports may exceed expectations
    21:13 | 25/ 07/ 2005


    Moscow, July 25 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's oil production and exportation levels in 2005 may turn out higher than predicted, an Economy Ministry official told a press conference here Monday.

    Andrei Klepach, in charge of a department at the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, said the year's output of Russian crude oil is now expected to reach 474 million tons, 4 million more than his ministry's most recent forecast. Projected crude exports are also up, put at 269 million tons, or 6 million more than the earlier estimate.

    The increase in the projected oil export figures stems from the fact that the amounts of oil shipped by rail and sea have proved underestimated, Klepach said.

    The ministry has also reestimated its oil price forecasts, raising the projected average annual price of Urals crude to $47-$48 per barrel in 2005, $40 in 2006, $35 in 2007 and $36 in 2008.

    en.rian.ru/business/20050725/40971068...

  19. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 19:56

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    The ministry has also reestimated its oil price forecasts, raising the projected average annual price of Urals crude to $47-$48 per barrel in 2005, $40 in 2006, $35 in 2007 and $36 in 2008.

    Allez die Russen toch, lachwekkend.

    En wat zou de prijs in 2010 zijn ineens $87

    The Artist

    ps: of is Urals crude = olie vermengd met water
  20. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 21:00

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    Zoals eerder aangegeven...olie omhoog richting de $ 59:

    Jul 25, 2005 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied just below $59 a barrel on Monday as dealers anticipated that recent storms in the Gulf of Mexico's oil producing region would cut into robust U.S. commercial stockpiles.

    U.S. crude traded up 20 cents to $58.85 a barrel, after falling as low as $57.65 earlier in the day, while London Brent crude rose 11 cents to $57.69 a barrel.

    "There was no follow through on the early selling and we basically held at the day's lows here," said Tom Knight, trader at Texas-based Truman Arnold.

    Dealers were expecting U.S. government data, to be released Wednesday, to show a decline in national inventories after storms in recent weeks slowed U.S. offshore production and cut exports from Mexico.

    The strongest start on record to the annual Atlantic hurricane season has heightened traders' worries about the impact of storms like last year's Hurricane Ivan, which shut 45 million barrels of oil production over several months after tearing up pipelines and platforms.

    So far this year, the effects of storms have cut about 6 million barrels of offshore U.S. production and last week's Hurricane Emily shut nearly 3 million barrels per day of Mexican output for a couple of days.

    "We're only in the last week of July," said Investec analyst Bruce Evers. "All you're going to need is a repeat of Ivan last year, and the market will get very jumpy."

    Prices surged by $1.52 for U.S. crude on Friday as dealers opted to cover short positions ahead of the weekend, fearing further disruption to supplies from Tropical Storm Gert, though that storm left most oil operations unscathed.

    The gains were tempered by another batch of relatively weak monthly oil trade data from China showing slower demand.

    Traders had been counting on the world's No. 2 energy consumer to deliver another year of strong growth after double-digit percentage increases in the past two years.

    Official June data showed implied demand up only 0.7 percent, according to Reuters calculations. Annual Chinese demand growth for 2005 is now projected by the International Energy Agency at 5.5 percent.

    abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=...
  21. [verwijderd] 25 juli 2005 21:33

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    Even een vraagje i.v.m het dividend.

    Ik bezit turbo's RD, stel 100 stuks
    Royal Dutch Shell Turbo Long
    NL0000452936 / 45293 23,10 6,6 21,41 25,20 22.06.05 7,48 7,53 -0,27%

    Vraag.....

    Hoeveel aandelen RD vertegenwoordigen deze turbo's?

    Het is mij bekend dat het dividend van RD verrekend wordt met het financierings niveau.

    Alvast bedankt.
    gr.fes
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