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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

1. [verwijderd] 10 februari 2006 21:45

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   Beetje wazige berichtgeveing over olievoorraden in de VS.
   Rest van de wereld is gissen.
   Is wel erg snel gezakt......ik hoopte op kleine correctie in neergaande trend.
   You know?
   gr.fes
   
   Amsterdam (BETTEN BEURSMEDIA NEWS) - In de Verenigde Staten zijn de voorraden ruwe olie in de week tot 3 februari 2006 gedaald met 318.000 vaten, van 321,0 miljoen vaten tot 320,7 miljoen. Dat heeft het Amerikaanse Department of Energy woensdag bekendgemaakt. De daling is onverwacht. Economen hadden gemiddeld gerekend op een stijging met 1 miljoen vaten.
   
   De voorraden benzine stegen volgens de statistieken van het energiedepartement met 4,3 miljoen vaten, van 219,0 miljoen vaten tot 223,3 miljoen. Voor deze voorraden mikten de economen op een stijging met 2 miljoen vaten. De markten beginnen al op deze cijfers te letten, omdat zij anticiperen op het komende zomerseizoen met een grote vraag naar benzine.
   
   Volgens het American Petroleum Institute (API) daalden de voorraden ruwe olie vorige week met 2,7 miljoen vaten tot 321,5 miljoen en namen de benzinevoorraden toe met 2,8 miljoen vaten tot 219,0 miljoen. De voorraden stookolie en diesel daalden volgens het API met 1,2 miljoen vaten tot 136,3 miljoen.
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 12 februari 2006 17:48

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   De zesde kanshebber
   Het is meestal interessanter om schoppen en pikhouwelen te leveren aan goudzoekers dan zelf aan het delven te slaan. Dat is een wijsheid die ik in tal van beleggingen probeer toe te passen.
   Bijvoorbeeld door aandelen van beurzen en brokers te kopen in een mooie bull markt. Euronext, Binck, Etrade, International Securities Exchange en de absolute Google'achtige klapper Chicago Mercantile Exchange zijn daarvan voorbeelden geweest.
   
   Momenteel hebben we een bull markt in olie. In plaats van te gokken met olieturbo's kies ik liever voor de toeleveranciers van de grote oliemaatschappijen. De voortreffelijke Amerikaanse columnist Jim Jubak (hij schrijft voor www.msn.com) komt deze week met een verhaal, waarin hij aangeeft waarom het verstandig is nu in de boorbedrijven (de 'drillers') en toeleveranciers van de olie-industrie te beleggen. Klik hier voor het artikel. Hij noemt in zijn verhaal vijf beursgenoteerde bedrijven die kunnen profiteren. Ik kom met een zesde kandidaat die naar mijn idee mogelijk nog beter zal scoren. Het gaat om Baker Hughes International (Nyse: BHI), een op Wall Street genoteerde leverancier van boorkoppen, boorvloeistoffen, boormotoren en allerlei diensten voor boorplatformen. Baker Hughes heeft een omzet van bijna zes miljard dollar en bezit een uitstekende, internationale klantenlijst.
   
   Op technologisch terrein is Baker Hughes een uitblinker. Bij conventionele boortechnieken zal 65% van de olie aanwezig in een bron niet worden opgepompt. Maar met nieuwe methoden waarbij horizontaal wordt geboord, kan het winningspercentage drastisch omhoog. Precies datgene waar de oliemaatschappijen momenteel naar op zoek zijn. De nieuwste innovatie van het bedrijf heet 'bi-directional communications and power module' (BCPM). Deze technologie is veelbelovend en kan mogelijk al midden dit jaar in productie worden genomen. BCPM is een forse stap voorwaarts in boortechniek omdat de ´drillers´ hun boorkop nu precies naar de plaats kunnen sturen die ze wensen. Ze kunnen bijvoorbeeld 1500 meter diep boren en dan abrupt een haakse bocht maken om nog eens vijf kilometer horizontaal boren.
   
   Maar er is nog veel meer nieuws te melden. Baker Hughes heeft aandrijfmotoren voor boortorens die de boortijd met maximaal 60% kunnen verlagen. Gezien de huidige hoge huurprijzen voor boortorens is dat van grote betekenis. Verder heeft men nog systemen ontwikkeld om vervuiling te voorkomen en systemen om bronnen beter in kaart te brengen en op te sporen.
   
   Financieel staat Baker Hughes er beter voor dan andere olieservicebedrijven. In de afgelopen vijf jaar werden schulden afgelost en stegen de omzetten gestaag. De winstmarges nemen toe en het dividend werd onlangs verhoogd.
   
   bron: beursonline.nl
3. [verwijderd] 12 februari 2006 17:48

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   Baker Hughes Incorporated (Baker Hughes) is engaged in the oilfield services industry. The Company supplies wellbore-related products and technology services and systems to the oil and natural gas industry on a worldwide basis, including products and services for drilling, formation evaluation, completion and production of oil and natural gas wells. Baker Hughes conducts part or all of its operations through subsidiaries, affiliates, ventures, partnerships or alliances. It has seven operating divisions: Baker Atlas, Baker Hughes Drilling Fluids, Baker Oil Tools, Baker Petrolite, Centrilift, Hughes Christensen and INTEQ that have been aggregated into the Oilfield segment. The Oilfield segment also includes the Company's 30% interest in WesternGeco, a seismic venture it entered into with Schlumberger Limited (Schlumberger), as well as other investments in affiliates.
   
   Earnings Estimates fyi
   Qtr(12/05) EPS Estimate 0.73
   FY(12/05) EPS Estimate 2.54
   Current P/E 29.80
   FY(12/06) EPS Estimate 3.42
   Forward P/E 27.60
   Next Earnings Release: February 16
   
   ook al behoorlijk gewaardeerd dus.
4. [verwijderd] 12 februari 2006 17:50

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   5 energy stocks for a smooth ride
   advertisement
   
   As the energy sector is buffeted by everything from geopolitics to weather forecasts, these companies continue to deliver solid profits.
   
   By Jim Jubak
   
   By now, investors should know the drill. Energy stocks soar to new highs on worries about supply disruptions from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, wherever. Energy stocks crash, like they did on Tuesday, coming back to earth from those new highs, on news that warm weather has tempered demand and/or that inventories of oil, natural gas, or gasoline are climbing.
   
   Boom. Bust. Boom Bust. In the short term. On news that is, in essence, noise.
   
   Earnings Estimates fyi
   Qtr(3/06) EPS Estimate 1.21
   FY(12/06) EPS Estimate 4.15
   Current P/E 13.40
   FY(12/07) EPS Estimate 4.01
   Forward P/E 10.20
   Next Earnings Release: N/A
   
   In the long-term, though, each boom takes the stock to a new high that's a bit higher and each bust ends with the low that's also a bit higher.
   
   As long as the long-term trend toward higher energy prices is intact, investors should use a sell off like Tuesday's as an opportunity to buy. As long as global energy demand is growing fast enough to force global energy suppliers to tap increasingly expensive sources of oil and natural gas -- drilling in deep, deep, deep water or mining and refining the oil sands of Canada -- the long term trend for energy prices, and energy stocks, is up.See the news
   that affects your stocks.
   Check out our
   new News center.
   
   
   Charting a course
   And how do you know that the long-term trend is intact? Not by watching the shares of energy producers: At this stage in the energy rally, they're so volatile they respond to every bit of news. No, instead watch the shares of the companies that supply the picks and shovels for continued energy exploration and production. As long as these companies continue to report rising orders and climbing revenue, then the long-term direction for energy shares and prices remains upward.
   
   At this stage in the energy rally, these indicator stocks are also often the best stocks to own to reap latter stage profits as well.
   
   To see the long-term trend that the short-term booms and busts tend to obscure, look at a chart, almost any chart, for a stock in the energy sector.
   XTO Energy (XTO, news, msgs), among energy producers, shows exactly what I mean. It peaked in booms on Oct. 3 at $46.15, Dec. 15 at $46.95, and Jan. 30 at $49.95. It bottomed in busts on Nov. 10 at $38.72 and on Dec. 27 at $43.94.
   
5. [verwijderd] 13 februari 2006 21:30

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   Bodem gezien?
   Theorie van stijgende olie en zakkende beurzen kan weer in de prullebak.
   Het was weer even anders......zakkende olie en dalende beurzen.
   Nooit te oud om te leren.
   gr.fes
6. jrxs4all 14 februari 2006 16:32

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   Olie blijft keurig in neergaand trendkanaal dat begin februari is ingezet. Duurt niet lang meer voor de olieprijs weer met een 5 begint, ik denk morgen al tenzij de voorraaden erg tegenvallen,
   JR
7. faites-vos-jeux 15 februari 2006 20:51

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   quote:

   jrxs4all schreef:

   Olie blijft keurig in neergaand trendkanaal dat begin februari is ingezet. Duurt niet lang meer voor de olieprijs weer met een 5 begint, ik denk morgen al tenzij de voorraaden erg tegenvallen,
   JR
   

   voorspelling komt aardig uit: brent op 59$
   
   is opmerkelijk hoe snel het korte termijn beeld kan veranderen; we zitten ineens in een zee van olie; ook gas is ineens in overvloed aanwezig; alleen benzine is nog niet helemaal overvloedig; het lange termijn verhaal van de oliekrapte staat echter volgens mij nog onverminderd overeind
8. jrxs4all 15 februari 2006 21:01

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   quote:

   faitesvosjeux schreef:

   [quote=jrxs4all]
   Olie blijft keurig in neergaand trendkanaal dat begin februari is ingezet. Duurt niet lang meer voor de olieprijs weer met een 5 begint, ik denk morgen al tenzij de voorraaden erg tegenvallen,
   JR
   [/quote]
   
   voorspelling komt aardig uit: brent op 59$
   
   

   Dat moet veel lager zijn want Texaanse staat nu al op 57,60, Brent is normaal lager,
   
   JR
9. faites-vos-jeux 15 februari 2006 21:04

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   dan loopt CNN site achter
10. jrxs4all 15 februari 2006 21:17

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    quote:

    faitesvosjeux schreef:

    dan loopt CNN site achter
    

    www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
12. [verwijderd] 16 februari 2006 18:56

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    UPDATE 4-Oil back above $58, halts slide for now
    
    By Janet McBride
    
    LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Oil climbed back to $58 on Thursday, halting a two-week slide that has wiped 15 percent off the price, but analysts said the recovery was likely to be short lived with U.S. gasoline supplies at a six-year high.
    
    U.S. crude <CLc1> was up 45 cents at $58.10 a barrel by 1751 GMT having tumbled as low as $57.60 on Wednesday after U.S. data showed a flood of fuel imports into the world's top consumer. London Brent crude was up 35 cents at $58.50.
    
    "This week's Department of Energy statistics were another in a string of disasters for energy prices," analysts at PFC Energy wrote in a report.
    
    U.S. oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since late December. The drop, precipitated by building fuel stocks, accelerated as investment funds took their cash.
    
    Oil is already a long way from its $70 a barrel record high hit at the end of August, and analysts say prices could fall further still.
    
    "Fundamentals right now are bearish. Supplies are building really quickly," said Alexandre Kervinio, an analyst at SG Commodities in Paris. "The trend is definitely to be lower, at least going into the second quarter."
    
    Strong demand from the United States and the fast-growing economies of China and India have helped fuel a rally that lifted the oil price from $32 at the start of 2004.
    
    But in the past week the International Energy Agency and OPEC have both trimmed their demand growth forecasts as persistently high prices make themselves felt.
    
    Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said he believed OPEC was overproducing by one million barrels per day and should consider trimming output. The group next meets on March 8.
    
    WILD CARDS
    
    The potential for export disruptions from Iran and continuing unrest in Nigeria's oil rich delta could easily turn the market around.
    
    The Nigerian military launched a helicopter gunship attack on targets in the delta on Wednesday and militants threatened to shoot down aircraft unless military flights stopped.
    
    Last month, attacks on Nigeria's oil industry halted 10 percent of output from the world's eighth biggest oil exporter.
    
    OPEC's second biggest oil producer Iran remains at odds with the United Nations atomic watchdog. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said on Thursday Iran was pursuing a clandestine military nuclear programme.
    
    But until these possible disruptions become reality, investors are firmly focused on the here and now.
    
    "Unless there is a blow-up in the Middle East or there is some real physical demand -- but that looks unlikely now -- we would expect pressure to continue," said an international fund manager who declined to be named.
    
    Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior investment strategist at CFC Securities, was more bullish.
    
    "I'm surprised that we are at current levels, because the geopolitical uncertainties haven't changed much since oil was at about $68-69 in late January -- Iran is still carrying on with nuclear testing," he said.
    
    Scheduled maintenance at U.S. refineries would reduce gasoline output, according to Craig Pennington, an analyst at investment bank Schroders.
    
    "We are waiting for an adjustment, but the adjustment will come," he said.
    
    today.reuters.com/business/newsarticl...
13. [verwijderd] 17 februari 2006 19:40

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    Schiet mij maar lek. Daalt de olieprijs, begint de OPEC te blaten dat ze het aanbod mogelijk willen gaan beperken. Snappen die lui niet dat een (te) hoge olieprijs slecht is voor iedereen, dus ook voor henzelf?
    Ja ik houd oliestocks aan, maar een te hoge prijs doet niemand goed:
    
    Big rally for oil; OPEC mulls output cuts
    
    Futures near $60 on forecasts of colder weather and concerns over possible cut in OPEC's production levels.
    February 17, 2006: 10:50 AM EST
    
    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Oil prices shot up Friday on talk of a push by some member states to have OPEC cut production and forecasts of more cold weather throughout the United States.
    
    Oil, which reached a nearly two-month low Thursday before turning higher in afternoon trading, was up sharply Friday morning, heading toward $60 a barrel -- a mark it had dropped below on Tuesday for the first time in 2006.
    
    U.S. light crude for March delivery rose $1.14 to $59.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    
    NYMEX crude futures had fallen as low as $57.55 in trading Thursday before turning higher.
    
    Fadel Gheit, oil analyst for Oppenheimer & Co., said there is talk that OPEC members who are already pumping at capacity -- including Iran, Venezuela and Libya -- are concerned with the recent fall below the $60 level and are pushing members with excess capacity -- such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates -- to trim production.
    
    "There is talk that OPEC is being spooked by the sharp decline," he said.
    
    OPEC President Edmund Daukoru, who is also Nigeria's Minister of State for Petroleum, said Friday it was too early to say whether the exporters' group would cut oil output at its next meeting, according to Reuters.
    
    "It is a little too far ahead to predict what (the market) will do," said Daukoru.
    
    Analysts say that at the time of the OPEC meeting, scheduled for March 8, the price could be driven higher by resurgent tension over Iran, making it politically very difficult for the group to cut production even if stock levels are high.
    
    On Thursday, Iran rejected claims by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it had resumed uranium enrichment, Reuters said. Iran said it is still ready to negotiate on a Russian proposal for resolving a dispute with the West.
    
    The IAEA decided at the start of this month to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear ambitions and will meet March 6 in Vienna, just ahead of the OPEC meeting, to review the situation.
    
    Buying also has been spurred by dealers reluctant to cut positions ahead of a long weekend, with U.S. markets closing Monday for Presidents Day.
    
    "I haven't seen any news move this morning, but the (reason for the) rise is probably (that) people don't want to sit on their position, short or long, before the holiday weekend," Gheit said.
    
    Oil prices have steadily declined since the beginning of February, partly driven by swelling U.S. inventories of oil and fuel through the week-ago period. But since then the Northeast was hit by its heaviest snowstorm of the year, and cold weather is expected to return to much of the nation this weekend.
    
    The Northeast is the nation's largest user of oil-based heating oil to heat homes; other regions depend on natural gas as the primary source for heat.
    
    money.cnn.com/2006/02/17/markets/oil/...
14. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 12:52

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    Nog meer nieuws zal maandag wel op gereageerd worden
    
    
    9 oil workers abducted in Nigeria
    
    Saturday, February 18, 2006; Posted: 5:24 a.m. EST (10:24 GMT)
    
    LAGOS, Nigeria (Reuters) -- Nigerian militants launched a string of attacks on the world's eighth largest oil exporter on Saturday, abducting nine foreign workers from an offshore barge and attacking at least two other facilities.
    
    Militants from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said they were targeting all oil pipelines, production platforms and export terminals in Delta state, which accounts for about a quarter of Nigeria's 2.4 million barrels per day production.
    
    "A barge was attacked by several speed boats. There was an exchange of fire and nine foreigners were kidnapped," an oil industry source said, adding that the barge, operated by U.S. oil services company Willbros Group, was operating offshore in the Forcados area of Delta state.
    
    A Shell oil facility near the 380,000 barrel-per-day Forcados export terminal, also in Delta state, was attacked and burst into flames, but a company source said the fire was extinguished.
    
    A pipeline in the area was also attacked, an oil industry source said.
    
    Shell officials were not able to specify the impact on oil production.
    
    Militants said they also destroyed a gas pipeline operated by state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. running from the Escravos area in Delta state to the Kaduna refinery in northern Nigeria.
    
    "Workers in the oil industry are hereby requested to vacate all installations with immediate effect," the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said.
    
    "All pipelines, flowstations and crude loading platforms will be targeted for destruction within the next few hours by our units which entered into Delta state in good numbers."
    
    The militant group wants more local control over the oil wealth of the Niger delta.
    
    The latest wave of militant violence follows helicopter gunship attacks on targets in Delta state by the Nigerian military earlier this week.
    
    The military said their attacks were aimed at gangs stealing crude oil from pipelines in Delta state, but community leaders said they targeted villages suspected of harboring militants.
    
    An earlier wave of militant attacks on Nigeria's oil industry in December and January cut up to 10 percent of the OPEC nation's output. Militants kidnapped four foreign oil workers in January for 19 days and killed at least 14 soldiers in one oil platform attack.
    
    "Expatriates must realize that they have been caught up in a war and the Nigerian government can do nothing to guarantee the security of anyone," the militants said in an email. REUTERS
    
15. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 21:56

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    Dit is wat er gaat gebeuren en niet alleen in Amerika natuurlijk. Maar hoe groter het land en hoe meer olie er verbruikt wordt hoe groter de pijn.
    Dit gaan wij nog meemaken als we nog 10 – 20 jaar of langer leven.
    Een heel klein miniscuul voordeeltje heb je als je nu olie-aandelen bezit en goud (en zilver). Deze gaan een ongekende koers- cq waardestijging tegemoet. Wees dus niet zo blind als de meeste Amerikanen en Europeanen en anderen die deze toekomst niet willen zien, omdat ze denken en zeggen dat de mens slim is en wel met een oplossing zal komen. Die oplossing had er al moeten liggen.
    vr.gr. duro
    
    
    
    
    
    Peak Oil - The Great Tsunami
    
    By Michael Payne
    
    18 February, 2006
    Online Journal
    
    A long-predicted tsunami is heading toward the shores of America, a wave of incredible proportions, gathering momentum with each passing day. America has had many, many warnings of how this giant wave would develop, but these warnings have been totally ignored. Very soon our American society will experience an extremely painful awakening to the dark specter of "Peak Oil" as it looms on our horizon and then comes crashing down upon our nation. Peak Oil will result in drastic and dramatic changes to our society and our lifestyles, the likes of which we will find extremely difficult to comprehend.
    
    By now, most Americans know what a tsunami is. However, the vast majority of America has no clue as to what Peak Oil is. In the simplest of explanations, Peak Oil is that point when the total world production of oil and all known reserves are surpassed by the world demand. At that point the supply will be steadily reduced and the ravages of Peak Oil will begin.
    
    The US experienced an American Peak Oil in the 1970s when, because of our lack of production capacity and reserves, we were forced to import more and more from foreign sources. Our insatiable appetite for that black gold has now increased to the point that we are now importing about two thirds of our total oil consumption from OPEC and other exporting countries.
    
    Of the approximate 84 million barrels of oil consumed on a daily basis by the nations of this planet, the US consumes roughly 21 barrels million of that total, or about 25 percent -- an astounding figure for a nation that represents about 5 percent of the entire world's population. Now that the economies of China and India are growing very swiftly, they are consuming greater and greater quantities of oil. With this new sharp upward spike in world demand, the specter of Peak Oil looms over this planet more ominously with each passing day.
    
    Is Peak Oil a solid theory? Numerous world-class scientists and petroleum experts have conducted intensive studies of this predicted happening over many years and are convinced that it will not only happen but that we are now situated at its very beginning. There are detractors, of course, who say that these scientists and other experts are practicing scare tactics just as those who have issued dire warnings about Global Warming. Even so, some of the most knowledgeable experts in this field are of the opinion that we have already entered the Peak Oil era; many others say that it will begin somewhere between 2006 and 2010.
    
    While I am personally convinced that Peak Oil is a definite reality that America and the world cannot avoid, it seems apparent that Americans simply have no conception of this monumental problem they will soon have to face. They hear little to nothing on network or cable TV or in their newspapers or magazines. To become knowledgeable, Americans must tune in to the Internet. Websites such as peakoil.com, fromthewilderness.com are good starting points. Answers.com is a great website that identifies a wide array of other websites that concentrate on Peak Oil, as well as all sorts of references and links to essays and discussions on this subject. Googling "Peak Oil" will also bring up numerous links.
    
    Now, let's examine and discuss just how our lifestyles, yours, mine and those of all Americans, will be radically changed forever, and will never be the same, at least until this planet can be powered by energy other than fossil fuels. As you gain knowledge about Peak Oil, you will understand that the supposed fallback certainty of alternative energy, including hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars, windmills, etc. is more talk than action. Our government, automakers, and corporate energy giants are doing little to nothing to promote conservation or develop new energy sources. Fossil fuel is king and those in power are more than willing to accept that sad fact.
    
    The 4-5-Car Family -- One of the very first casualties of the effect of Peak Oil will be that the 4-5 car family will disappear, as it should since it is one of the most egregious examples of how petroleum is wasted in the US. The now common practice of high school seniors being given their own vehicles, with many unnecessarily driving to high school will abruptly end. The great American dream of the automobile that has now turned into a virtual nightmare will see a drastic reduction in the number of autos in this nation. Because fuel will simply not be available for millions of America's autos, families will be forced to share and cooperate as they have never done before. They will have no choice.
    
    Gas Guzzling SUVs, 500-HP Pickups, Hummers -- The sales of overly large, grotesque SUVs, the monster pickup trucks and the totally nonsensical Hummers will quickly tank and millions of these societal aberrations will end up in the scrap heaps long before their natural life has passed. That will be a blessing in itself. Many, many Americans will be forced to wake up and will gravitate to the high mileage hybrid autos pioneered by Toyota and Honda, now also being developed by US automakers.
    
    Our National Trucking, Distribution System -- The very lifeblood of our entire economy will be severely crippled as millions of trucks will find less and less available fuel. This, of course, will directly affect every element of our economy as noted in sections below. Years ago when railroads should have been subsidized through intelligent planning and developed into a system, such as found in Europe, our short-term thinkers in Washington poured all the monetary resources into the Interstate Highway System. The trucking industry took off like a rocket and the railroads began to die. That scenario will now be completely reversed as Peak Oil delivers our nation a terrific blow. Railroads will be one of our prime fallback positions.
    
    The Airline Industry -- Again, Peak Oil will have a devastating effect on most of the airline industry since jet fuel represents one of the greatest uses of petroleum. With several airlines now approaching potential bankruptcies, just think of what this industry will have to face in the future. The disruptive and continuing disagreements regarding wages, healthcare, and pensions between management and unions will be totally set aside as the industry frantically tries to figure out to survive. The US government will be helpless to even try to bail them out.
    
    vervolg zie volgende posting
16. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 21:58

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    En het laatste stuk dat er niet opging.
    vr.gr. duro
    
    Millions Upon Millions of Auto Commuters -- Today, in many, many cities the average number of occupants in a typical auto commuting to work is somewhere around 1.5. That will change very quickly as our oil supplies begin to dry up. What will people do? In many cases, the railroads will benefit as more and more commuters will have to choose railroads as their primary way to get to work. But the overall magnitude of this problem will be astounding because of the suburban sprawl. Those millions who typically have a 100-mile plus round trip drive to work will face a monumental problem.
    
    Supermarkets, Wal-Mart, et al -- Since the trucking industry will be severely crippled, you can be certain that those shelves containing 50-75 brands of bread, cereals, aspirins, deodorants and many other products will be greatly reduced and the products offered will be much more basic. And, when you stop to think about that, that sounds like one of the least of our problems. Wal-Mart may find itself in dire straits, indeed, since their stores are chock full of plastic products which will not be able to be transported from China and the rest of the world.
    
    Auto, Truck Production -- Because the demand for these vehicles will drop drastically, the major auto producers will find themselves at the brink of bankruptcy. Since the American Dream revolves around the automobile, this will be one of the most drastic results of the lack of oil, with the loss of thousands upon thousands of jobs in the auto industry and related suppliers.
    
    Agriculture -- The most critical of all elements of our economy and for our very survival is our food supply, including the supply chain that farms use to produce crops and the distribution of the resulting foodstuffs to the nation. Pesticides and fertilizers are largely derived from petroleum. Our farm industry will be put at risk when the supply of oil begins to dry up and our government will need to put agriculture at the very top of the list of those who will receive priority in coping with the Peak Oil crisis.
    
    Overall, General Effects -- As the Peak Oil era begins and then accelerates, Americans will be affected in many different ways. Have you noticed just how rapidly the cost of a gallon of gasoline has escalated in the past year as the price of petroleum has recently risen to some $60 barrel? That is nothing when considering that Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens has predicted that the price of gas will hit $3 a gallon sometime in 2006. The housing boom will be affected in many ways, including the fact that thousands upon thousands of tons of roofing shingles will not be produced, and many other critical materials will not be able to be transported to thousands of towns and cities. The availability of tires for autos and all other vehicles will be severely diminished. Millions of asphalt streets and highways will not be repaved and others will not be constructed. The Interstate Highway System that we now enjoy and take for granted will begin a steady deterioration and will severely impact our economy. We Americans will see our travel for business and leisure reduced to a very significant degree.
    
    To conclude, while I could go on and portray many other elements of the devastating effect that Peak Oil will have upon our society, my message to the American people is just this. To the millions upon millions of Americans who are content to be safely tucked into their protective cocoons, in a self-imposed state of apathy and disinterest relating to these massive problems that America faces, this may be the very final wake-up call. If we, as a nation do not collectively recognize the threat of this great tsunami, refuse to think more deeply or get educated and involved, we will be sealing the fate of our children, our grandchildren and those who follow. They are the ones who matter. We simply cannot refuse to address this monumental issue that threatens their very future existence!
    
    When Peak Oil slams into our society with its tsunami-like force, there will be an instant negative effect on each and every one of us. The US government will have to take immediate measures to prioritize the uses of petroleum for the good of the nation in an effort to overcome the horrendous obstacles that we will face. I am sure that the military, our national police forces, energy providers, the agriculture industry, water supply sources and other critical users of gasoline and natural gas will be given the highest priorities. All other uses of petroleum will be given much lower priorities and will not be considered critical. And that is exactly why lifestyles will be altered drastically.
    
    We simply cannot let our insatiable, our totally out-of-control thirst for oil, cripple our nation and our society as we stand in a completely docile, sheep-like state and just let it happen; just let nature take its course. Just as the Titanic went down with the loss of more than 1,500 passengers who believed she was invincible, Peak Oil will bring down America (and actually the entire world) if we, collectively, do not have the heart and the desire to get involved and demand solutions.
    
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17. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 21:59

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    10 tot 20 jaar??
    hahaha!!!
    dan is de olie wel bijna op ,dat geloof ik.
    maar dat er dan geen oplossingen zijn,dat geloof ik niet.
    de wereld is wakker aan het worden,beetje laat weliswaar.
    denk niet dat ik naief ben.
    maar goed,wat moet ik met dit bericht??
18. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 22:04

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    quote:

    patrick1968 schreef:

    10 tot 20 jaar??
    hahaha!!!
    dan is de olie wel bijna op ,dat geloof ik.
    maar dat er dan geen oplossingen zijn,dat geloof ik niet.
    de wereld is wakker aan het worden,beetje laat weliswaar.
    denk niet dat ik naief ben.
    maar goed,wat moet ik met dit bericht??
    

    Maar zijn de oplossingen er ook in de tussenliggende tijd? Daar gaat het in eerste instantie om. Voorts staat het je vrij om te geloven wat je wilt, maar ik heb de oliecrisis bewust meegemaakt in 1973 en heb sindsdien weinig vorderingen gezien op het gebied van de alternatieven voor olie. Hoe dan ook, olie gaat razendduur worden!
    Misschien dit bericht printen en boven je bed hangen en over 5 jaar nog eens lezen?
    vr.gr. duro
19. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 22:44

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    One of George W. Bush's energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis.
    
    (Note: Although he has advised Bush/Cheney, Simmons considers himself strongly non-partisan on energy issues. His writings are highly regarded amongst the energy and banking community for their grounding in nonpartisan, heavily documented, and virtually infallible research & analysis.)
    
    Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world.
    
    Given Simmons' background, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
    
    It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians
    
    have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly
    
    while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use
    
    of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our
    
    economic well-being and to our health — greater than
    
    anyone could ever imagine.
    
    When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded:
    
    I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the
    
    best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will
    
    be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty.
    
    In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. Simmons explained that with oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.
    
    Simmons predictions are downright tame compared to what other analysts in the world of investment banking are preparing themselves for. For instance, in April 2005, French investment bank Ixis-CIB warned, "crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015."
    ************************
    
    Tja... "When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded:
    
    I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray."
    Niet de eerste de beste hoor die Simmons!
    vr.gr. duro
    PS. lees eens op www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
    
20. [verwijderd] 18 februari 2006 23:04

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    het is leuk,maar wanneer is er eigenlijk echt eens research gedaan naar andere energiebronnen die olie kunnen vervangen en ook als grondstof voor andere producten?
    die research komt wel,voorlopig kunnen we "zogenaamd" nog 20 jaar van de oliebronnen genieten.
21. [verwijderd] 19 februari 2006 11:43

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    Shell: Nigeria Attack Forces 400,000 B/D Export Cut
    
    Saturday February 18, 11:57 AM EST
    
    WARRI, Nigeria (AP)--Armed militants launched a wave of attacks across Nigeria's troubled Niger delta Saturday, blowing up oil installations and seizing nine foreign oil workers in violence that cut oil exports in the West African nation by 400,000 barrels a day.
    
    Shell official Donald Boham said militants attacked the Forcados oil loading platform in the western delta, forcing the company to shut down a facility that moves out 400,000 barrels of oil daily. Nigeria normally produces 2.5 million barrels of oil a day.
    
    money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp...