Beperktedijkbewaking schreef op 23 mei 2019 20:33:
[...]
Ik heb een researchrapport van ING uit juli 2015. Helaas niet recenter, maar goed, daarin staat:
"In a scenario in which Tom2 remains standalone but HERE is taken out we also see
significant upside potential for Tom2. In this scenario we assume that TomTom will
double its market share in Automotive from the current c.20% to 40% (assuming HERE is exclusively used by German car makers Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler, which together hold a global market share of 18.7%).
If we apply a DCF valuation in which we assume 80% of future cars will be suited to be equipped with an inbuilt system which over time (terminal value) will evolve to 100% and if we assume a 30% take rate to start with and then increase this also towards 100% and estimate an 85% gross margin and ASP for the package (map+traffic and excluding software) and assuming a stable ASP (price pressure offset by offering a more advanced map in the future applicable for highly automated driving), we arrive at a DCF fair value of €15.04. This is only for Automotive, ie, it does not include the fair value for Consumer and Telematics and net cash per share."40% van een 100% markt dus. Die 100% wordt volgens ING in 2024 bereikt (dachten ze in 2015).