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  1. brightlight 5 mei 2020 11:32
    FL
    If ever you might consider drawing up a chart of future peak sales per test, this chart which I just made may come in useful. It gives an overview of the historical ramp-up of tests (for Europe only!). It provides us with an interesting new parameter: avg # of cartridges sold per test. I do realize this parameter has its flaws because (amongst others) it does not take into consideration the IVD versus RUO mix, nor the geographical mix, but still I find it an interesting parameter.
    BL
  2. brightlight 5 mei 2020 12:46
    FL, MB,
    I hate to say 'I said so', but it does give me some personal satisfaction that analysts seem to be converging towards my view of the current value of the company. The new Kepler Cheuvreux target is now 8 euro. This being said, I much rather see a realistic price target from my 'fellow analysts' (pun intended :)). A realistic price target gives (me at least) much more confidence in a stock than a fairy tale target.
    BL.
  3. [verwijderd] 5 mei 2020 13:08
    quote:

    brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 12:46:

    FL, MB,
    I hate to say 'I said so', but it does give me some personal satisfaction that analysts seem to be converging towards my view of the current value of the company. The new Kepler Cheuvreux target is now 8 euro. This being said, I much rather see a realistic price target from my 'fellow analysts' (pun intended :)). A realistic price target gives (me at least) much more confidence in a stock than a fairy tale target.
    BL.
    Wat niet wil zeggen dat het koersdoel van KBC van 13,5 euro snel realistisch mag worden.
  4. brightlight 5 mei 2020 15:46
    quote:

    joe123 schreef op 5 mei 2020 13:08:

    [...]
    Wat niet wil zeggen dat het koersdoel van KBC van 13,5 euro snel realistisch mag worden.
    Volledig mee akkoord :)
  5. Flatlander 5 mei 2020 15:52
    quote:

    brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 11:32:

    FL
    If ever you might consider drawing up a chart of future peak sales per test, this chart which I just made may come in useful. It gives an overview of the historical ramp-up of tests (for Europe only!). It provides us with an interesting new parameter: avg # of cartridges sold per test. I do realize this parameter has its flaws because (amongst others) it does not take into consideration the IVD versus RUO mix, nor the geographical mix, but still I find it an interesting parameter.
    BL
    BL

    Not sure I'm ready to take your bait yet. One thing I've learned from years of investing is that projections are of little value unless you can associate them with a time frame.

    With the MSI approval, BCART has just filled out the test offerings in CRC and now has diagnostic approval in the EU. However, BCART is not providing the geographic and specific assay sales numbers in a way that would allow the sales trajectory to be analyzed. Extrapolating from this information would be my preferred way of tackling your request.

    As I get time I'll try to do some research on the overall market for various assay offerings and then try to assign market capture assumptions. There are huge assumptions in this approach. Some of the Journal of Clinical Pathology articles include flow charts of how they see Idylla being used synergistically with NGS to either provide faster results or to recover failed NGS tests. Obviously these Journal recommendations have not yet been adopted by medical guidance in any consistent way. Nevertheless, they provide a framework for how Idylla might be employed for MDx lab use. I think it is a safe assumption that NGS and PCR will be mainstays of oncology MDx for the foreseeable future. The use of Idylla to salvage the 30-40% of samples failing the NGS could be thought of as one (low to medium use) case scenario since it infers primarily lab usage and not point of care. Wide use within the POC market would be a high use scenario.

    I think some assumptions can be made of the rate that Idylla can displace other PCR methods. Also, geographically it should be possible to to estimate the time until peak baby boom generation MDx demand. I'll bet that occurs in the next 10 years in most of the developed world. The incidence rates of various cancers could be applied. I'll run some numbers as I have time and will share it at some point.

    With regards to your spreadsheet are your ave cartridge sales just dividing by the number of commercially available assays during each of the time periods? Is that of much value without knowing the breakdown of RUO vs IVD approved content?

    Thanks
    FL

  6. brightlight 5 mei 2020 20:04
    quote:

    Flatlander schreef op 5 mei 2020 15:52:

    [...]

    BL

    Not sure I'm ready to take your bait yet. One thing I've learned from years of investing is that projections are of little value unless you can associate them with a time frame.

    With the MSI approval, BCART has just filled out the test offerings in CRC and now has diagnostic approval in the EU. However, BCART is not providing the geographic and specific assay sales numbers in a way that would allow the sales trajectory to be analyzed. Extrapolating from this information would be my preferred way of tackling your request.

    As I get time I'll try to do some research on the overall market for various assay offerings and then try to assign market capture assumptions. There are huge assumptions in this approach. Some of the Journal of Clinical Pathology articles include flow charts of how they see Idylla being used synergistically with NGS to either provide faster results or to recover failed NGS tests. Obviously these Journal recommendations have not yet been adopted by medical guidance in any consistent way. Nevertheless, they provide a framework for how Idylla might be employed for MDx lab use. I think it is a safe assumption that NGS and PCR will be mainstays of oncology MDx for the foreseeable future. The use of Idylla to salvage the 30-40% of samples failing the NGS could be thought of as one (low to medium use) case scenario since it infers primarily lab usage and not point of care. Wide use within the POC market would be a high use scenario.

    I think some assumptions can be made of the rate that Idylla can displace other PCR methods. Also, geographically it should be possible to to estimate the time until peak baby boom generation MDx demand. I'll bet that occurs in the next 10 years in most of the developed world. The incidence rates of various cancers could be applied. I'll run some numbers as I have time and will share it at some point.

    With regards to your spreadsheet are your ave cartridge sales just dividing by the number of commercially available assays during each of the time periods? Is that of much value without knowing the breakdown of RUO vs IVD approved content?

    Thanks
    FL

    FL
    I entirely understand the difficulties involved in doing this exercise. Of course if and when you do it is entirely up to you.
    If such an exercise were to be done, it would enable both new and existing small shareholders to see for the first time the true potential of Bcart in actual numbers.

    To answer your last question: indeed, as I mentioned in the accompanying post, the ave cart sales per test numbers are of little value, other than that we see a clear upward trend (which of course is also explained by the growing installed base).
    Also, the estimates for cartridge sales volumes for 2020 and 2021 (in the spreadsheet) should not be taken seriously at this point. With Covid-19 we simply have no idea what 2020 will bring, and what the knock-on effects (positive and/or negative) will be on 2021. As you pointed out in your earlier post, 2020 will probably be dismal because of Covid-19, but at some point, in the not too distant future, investors will start looking past these numbers to 2021.
    I don't know if you noticed (you probably did) but in the last corporate presentation a few tests suddenly seemed to appear out of the blue (as apposed to the January corp pres).
    Thanks for the effort already,
    BL
  7. forum rang 4 MisterBlues 7 mei 2020 09:56
    quote:

    brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 12:46:

    FL, MB,
    I hate to say 'I said so', but it does give me some personal satisfaction that analysts seem to be converging towards my view of the current value of the company. The new Kepler Cheuvreux target is now 8 euro. This being said, I much rather see a realistic price target from my 'fellow analysts' (pun intended :)). A realistic price target gives (me at least) much more confidence in a stock than a fairy tale target.
    BL.

    FL:
    Not sure I'm ready to take your bait yet. One thing I've learned from years of investing is that projections are of little value unless you can associate them with a time frame.

    Mee eens!

    Het valt me op BL dat die door jou vermaledijde analisten dan wel weer aangehaald worden om je gelijk aan te tonen. Waarmee ik niet wil zeggen dat er helemaal geen waarheid schuilt in je berekeningen, en verder ben ik met je eens dat gematigde verwachtingen gewoon verstandig zijn.

    Ik blijf bij mijn waarheden:

    Ik vind Biocartis helemaal niet MEER interessant totdat er ECHT aansprekende goedkeuringen en MEER cruciale samenwerkingen binnenkomen, en wetenschappelijke signalen dat long- en darmkankermutatietesten goed ontvangen worden. Ik heb de aandelen op de plank! Kijk met een schuin oogje.

    Al twee lang wordt hier tot lering ende vermaek gediscussieerd over: omzet en in hoeverre dat realistisch is om te doen gezien de ontbrekende kennis; hoe de partnerschappen en samenwerkingen in elkaar steken en wat Biocartis precies daarmee opschiet en; vergelijkbare bedrijven en of die vergelijking wel opgaat; de voor- en nadelen die de concurrentie heeft (Illumina / Fisher) etc.etc.

    Kortom: kansen en bedreigingen.

    Wat mij betreft: gewoon lichtvoetige exercities, niet geheel zinloos maar ook niet steekhoudend.

    Denken jullie er wel eens aan dat al die uren lezen en schrijven ook een investering is met een economische waarde? FL kan bijna een boek publiceren: Biocartis, mijn verhaal… Ontwikkelingskosten 2000 uur is 20.000 euro voor een academicus. :)

    Er zijn momenteel veel interessantere aandelen! Het lijkt hier wel Waiting for Godot!

    Geduld is een schone zaak en ik heb nog vertrouwen voor (nog) een jaar.

    Hartelijke groetjes,
    MB
  8. Gijpie 7 mei 2020 18:49
    MB Volledig mee eens is ook de reden waarom ik alles verkocht heb . Ik begrijp het niet goed zelden een bedrijf gezien met een meer vooruitstrevende technologie dan de concurrenten en toch slagen ze er niet in om dit te vertalen naar echte groei .
  9. Phoene 7 mei 2020 23:40
    quote:

    FilipVanderAa schreef op 7 mei 2020 17:12:

    I see the ceo finally started buying some of his own stock. It's not much but it's something

    Inderdaad aankoop van een 100.000 aandelen op 4/5/2020.
  10. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 04:24
    I've been out of the office for a couple days, so I'm catching up on the board and with the flood of earnings announcements. Shown below is the Cepheid part of the Danaher report. Pretty stellar growth in that POC unit.

    FL

    In Diagnostics, there were very strong results from Danaher's point-of-care businesses at Cepheid and Radiometer, Joyce said. Cepheid's core revenue growth increased more than 40 percent, with broad based strength across all major product lines and geographies.
    Strength in Cepheid's flu assay was driven by "the combination of a more severe flu season and increased testing" during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, Joyce said. The company also saw early strong demand for Cepheid's SARS-CoV-2 test, which received Emergency Use Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration at the end of March. The test returns results in 45 minutes and can run on the global installed base of 23,000 instruments, including 5,000 in the US. Joyce said the firm has shipped 2 million test cartridges so far and expects to ship 6 million per quarter.
    "We are continuing to expand our capacity, but every test that we produce every single day gets shipped, and demand is continuing to build," Joyce said of Cepheid.
    The increased demand for molecular point-of-care tests drove increased instrument placements globally, Joyce said. But hospital and reference labs had lower activity due to declines in wellness checks, elective procedures, ER visits, which negatively impacted test volumes.
  11. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 06:02
    quote:

    brightlight schreef op 5 mei 2020 20:04:

    [...]
    I don't know if you noticed (you probably did) but in the last corporate presentation a few tests suddenly seemed to appear out of the blue (as apposed to the January corp pres).
    Thanks for the effort already,
    BL
    I did notice. I believe that some like OncoType Dx prostate are new tests that denote progress on an Assay announded in Dec 2018. I think they probably demonstrated the proof of concept that the assay can be run on the Idylla platform. Some of the new menu items are a bit of a slight of hand in that BCART is claiming the
    KRAS (pancreatic cyst fluid samples)
    NRAS & BRAF (thyroid FNA7 samples)
    assays on the basis that technical papers written by users that suggest Idylla can be used effectively for these indications. So BCART expanded the menu offering in these cases with little of no effort on the part of the company. That is great. The partner ecosystem and potential for the user community to help expand the use of Idylla is one of the things that attracted me to BCART!
    Most of the others Pan Cancer MSI, ABC, etc have been discussed on calls.

    I wonder if one of the metrics we should be tracking more closely is collaboration revenue.
    2019 2018
    R&D services 9,026 4,338
    License fees 2,517 3,158
    Milestones 908 833

    The milestone payments will track somewhat with regulatory approvals. Unfortunately, they do not break out the specific product that achieved the milestone. R&D is also of interest since it provides some insight into overall partner funding of launching content on Idylla. Verrelst has indicated that resources do not allow all projects to progress at the same time. So in some instances they prioritize on the basis of financial incentives, Partners paying up to move the content along quicker might suggest a market opportunity. We saw this with Immunexpress securing a BARDA grant in Feb 2019 to move Septicyte Rapid to completion. Unfortunately, like everything we generally do not get sufficient collaboration breakdown by partner or product.

    Regards FL
  12. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 06:13
    MB

    Point well taken! I have said it many times that I'm largely marking time waiting for the POC approvals.
    BCART is my first venture into buying anything on an exchange out of the US.

    Best Wishes
    FL
  13. [verwijderd] 8 mei 2020 11:40
    quote:

    Flatlander schreef op 8 mei 2020 04:24:

    I've been out of the office for a couple days, so I'm catching up on the board and with the flood of earnings announcements. Shown below is the Cepheid part of the Danaher report. Pretty stellar growth in that POC unit.

    FL

    In Diagnostics, there were very strong results from Danaher's point-of-care businesses at Cepheid and Radiometer, Joyce said. Cepheid's core revenue growth increased more than 40 percent, with broad based strength across all major product lines and geographies.
    Strength in Cepheid's flu assay was driven by "the combination of a more severe flu season and increased testing" during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, Joyce said. The company also saw early strong demand for Cepheid's SARS-CoV-2 test, which received Emergency Use Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration at the end of March. The test returns results in 45 minutes and can run on the global installed base of 23,000 instruments, including 5,000 in the US. Joyce said the firm has shipped 2 million test cartridges so far and expects to ship 6 million per quarter.
    "We are continuing to expand our capacity, but every test that we produce every single day gets shipped, and demand is continuing to build," Joyce said of Cepheid.
    The increased demand for molecular point-of-care tests drove increased instrument placements globally, Joyce said. But hospital and reference labs had lower activity due to declines in wellness checks, elective procedures, ER visits, which negatively impacted test volumes.
    I guess biocartis is still a long way behind with about 175000 cartridges sold each year.
    Do you know how many different tests can run on their instrument?
    Do you have any idea of the average time between registering a test or medicine for approval and receiving the approval or does this vary greatly?
    What is your take on the insider buying of Verrelst? A sign for things to come?

    Greetings,
    Filip
  14. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 15:19
    quote:

    MisterBlues schreef op 7 mei 2020 09:56:

    [...]

    Het valt me op BL dat die door jou vermaledijde analisten dan wel weer aangehaald worden om je gelijk aan te tonen. Waarmee ik niet wil zeggen dat er helemaal geen waarheid schuilt in je berekeningen, en verder ben ik met je eens dat gematigde verwachtingen gewoon verstandig zijn.

    Ik blijf bij mijn waarheden:

    Ik vind Biocartis helemaal niet MEER interessant totdat er ECHT aansprekende goedkeuringen en MEER cruciale samenwerkingen binnenkomen, en wetenschappelijke signalen dat long- en darmkankermutatietesten goed ontvangen worden. Ik heb de aandelen op de plank! Kijk met een schuin oogje.

    Al twee lang wordt hier tot lering ende vermaek gediscussieerd over: omzet en in hoeverre dat realistisch is om te doen gezien de ontbrekende kennis; hoe de partnerschappen en samenwerkingen in elkaar steken en wat Biocartis precies daarmee opschiet en; vergelijkbare bedrijven en of die vergelijking wel opgaat; de voor- en nadelen die de concurrentie heeft (Illumina / Fisher) etc.etc.

    MB

    Kortom: kansen en bedreigingen.

    Wat mij betreft: gewoon lichtvoetige exercities, niet geheel zinloos maar ook niet steekhoudend.

    Denken jullie er wel eens aan dat al die uren lezen en schrijven ook een investering is met een economische waarde? FL kan bijna een boek publiceren: Biocartis, mijn verhaal… Ontwikkelingskosten 2000 uur is 20.000 euro voor een academicus. :)

    Er zijn momenteel veel interessantere aandelen! Het lijkt hier wel Waiting for Godot!

    Geduld is een schone zaak en ik heb nog vertrouwen voor (nog) een jaar.

    Hartelijke groetjes,
    MB

    MB
    Your points are taken. However, I'd point out that personalized medicine based on MDx is a very exciting field that is in its infancy. There are few areas where you see projected annual growth of 15-20% as far as the eye can see (i.e., decades). How many consumer goods can you be certain will be in demand for even 5 years? If you can pick the next Cepheid (maker of a similar MDx cartridge based POC testing system for infectious disease) and hold you will be very wealthy. That said, this is well recognized and there are dozens of competitors. I see that NGS will be more prevalent in oncology than in infectious disease since most cancer cases can wait a week or two for comprehensive whole genome sequencing results. Infectious disease answers cannot wait that long. This probably means that there will be a couple winners that are NGS based. However, I think we will lose a lot of these firms in the next year or two. This pandemic may act as a consolidating factor for many of these firms.

    PCR based systems provide answers much quicker and can recover answers in many cases where NGS cannot provide an answer. This is probably not as lucrative an opportunity as the first POC infectious disease system, but it would still be a very attractive long term investment. We guess that factors like accuracy, ease of use and decreased manpower requirements will eventually be drivers for the adoption of Idylla, but your right that waiting for the market to recognize these factors is a bit like watching a tea kettle waiting for it to come to a boil. The watching does not move things along any quicker.

    Good luck to you. I understand you not having any desire to be a prolific poster, but don't be afraid to chime in occasionally when you see something noteworthy.

    FL .
  15. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 16:28
    If BCARTS COVID 19 test is similar to the RSV assay that it uses for a framework it should provide results in under 1 hr (~50 min). This compares pretty well to the Cepheid assay which takes 45 mins to return an answer. Not nearly as quick as the Abbot ID Now device which provides answers in about 10 mins. However, reportedly the ID now test has a false negative rate of about 15%. This is the worse kind of error. You are literally giving someone a false sense of security that they are clean and can go ahead with there normal personal contacts when they could in fact be spreading COVID 15% of the time!

    www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/fa...

    If Idylla is more accurate, it will be popular, but will not touch the Cepheid rapid Genexpert test, since it is not capable of the high throughput/test volume of GenExpert. Combined with the sepsis test, this could drive a lot of Idylla console placements in hospitals close to the ICUs. The question is where will those consoles go after there is a vaccine and the pandemic ends.

    FL
  16. Flatlander 8 mei 2020 16:50
    Last post of the morning.

    Glad that Verrelst took the opportunity to buy shares to show a vote of confidence with his personal money. I'm not sure about Belgium laws on when an insider can purchase. I assume he has a lot of windows when he cannot buy shares since he has insider knowledge. Apparently, the Belgium restrictions provided the window between the March 5 Yr End Results and the April 23 1st Qtr Results.

    If anyone develops any insights from today's Annual Meeting, Please Post!

    FL

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