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Groupama 6,375 perpetual callable 2024

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  1. [verwijderd] 23 juni 2014 09:35
    I would like to start discussion about the new perpetual bond issued by Groupama S.A. 6,375% callable 2024 perpetual.
    Isin FR0011896513
    coupon 6,375 (cumulative on regulatory base if solvency had fallen under 100%)
    Rating BB
    current solvency margin 200%
    Market: Euronext Paris

    bonds.nyx.com/en/products/bonds/FR001...
  2. Hoover 24 juni 2014 11:47
    quote:

    LittleSteven schreef op 23 juni 2014 16:16:

    call date on the 2039 sub.notes is october, 27th 2019
    6.7875% call 10/27/2019 geeft hoge running yield van 6.8% en YTM van 4.5% (op cashprice van 115.65%)
    6.375% call 05/28/24 geeft running yield van 6.1% en YTM van 5.8% op een cashprice van 104.50

    Ik ken veel mensen die alleen naar running yield kijken omdat ze toch niet blijven zitten tot de bonds op par aflossen. Op zich hou ik wel van de verre call op de nieuw lening en 5.8% tot de call is natuurlijk best ok.
  3. [verwijderd] 24 juni 2014 11:57
    quote:

    Hoover schreef op 24 juni 2014 11:47:

    [...]

    6.7875% call 10/27/2019 geeft hoge running yield van 6.8% en YTM van 4.5% (op cashprice van 115.65%)
    6.375% call 05/28/24 geeft running yield van 6.1% en YTM van 5.8% op een cashprice van 104.50

    Ik ken veel mensen die alleen naar running yield kijken omdat ze toch niet blijven zitten tot de bonds op par aflossen. Op zich hou ik wel van de verre call op de nieuw lening en 5.8% tot de call is natuurlijk best ok.

    right, but you should consider Yield to Call (YTC) for both bonds.;)
    About 6,375 now I see ask/offer on e.next 104.05
  4. benito c. 25 juni 2014 08:44
    This bond seems to be interesting. The only thing I wonder about is why Groupama has to pay a lot more interest than banks who sell Coco´s? I know Groupama a little bit, it is a quiet French cooperative insurer with some banking services. In the past they had some troubles, but now it seems more stable.

  5. benito c. 25 juni 2014 09:02
    I have bought one.

    I have also the Casino 4,87%, but that one has a call in 5 years, and is now above the 105%, when I bought it was 99%.
  6. benito c. 25 juni 2014 09:07
    quote:

    Alias II schreef op 25 juni 2014 09:05:

    Alleen porties van € 100.000 ??
    Ja, Alex accepteert alleen orders van 100.000 of een veelvoud daarvan.
  7. [verwijderd] 25 juni 2014 09:10
    quote:

    benito c. schreef op 25 juni 2014 08:44:

    This bond seems to be interesting. The only thing I wonder about is why Groupama has to pay a lot more interest than banks who sell Coco´s? I know Groupama a little bit, it is a quiet French cooperative insurer with some banking services. In the past they had some troubles, but now it seems more stable.

    some trouble and no market friendlyness during the financial turmoil, but since 2013 on the way of capital consolidation: on last march fitch upgraded rating to BBB with positive outlook.

    Management changed its behaviour to markets and investors offering in exchange old hybrids vs the new ones of this thread.

    Solvency margin now at 200%, combined ratios to be improved from 100,9.
  8. forum rang 4 zeurpietje 25 juni 2014 10:05
    quote:

    benito c. schreef op 25 juni 2014 09:07:

    [...]
    Ja, Alex accepteert alleen orders van 100.000 of een veelvoud daarvan.
    ook binck alleen 100.000 of meervoud
  9. Hoover 27 juni 2014 14:55
    I expect this bond to underperform with a +7 yr duration to the call.
    Euro rates are very low , especially when you compare to US and UK. BOE starting to change future guidance quite rapidly and Fed will continue tapering. The risk in this bond is more duration then credit.
  10. Hoover 27 juni 2014 14:59
    Also , please keep an eye on Insurance names when rates go up. In general good for their future buisnesss and earnings potential, but short term this is a hit on their bond portfolio's. My feeling is that this bond is not good when rates rise.
  11. [verwijderd] 31 juli 2014 22:51
    I suggest to take a look at 2014 1st half financial results:
    en.groupama-sa.com/finance/financial-...

    in brief:

    Stable premium income of €9.2 billion
    Selective development in France
    International growth
    Operating income in line with the Group's strategy
    Strong improvement of the combined ratio in non-life insurance at 98.5% (-2.4 points)
    Part of the unit-linked products increased to 16.2% of the total reserves in individual savings (+2.9 points),
    Economic operating income of €100 million
    Net profit of €140 million

    Solvency margin of 239%

  12. Hoover 6 augustus 2014 12:18
    101.42 offered nu. Deze lange subs worden geraakt, oge correlatie met de aandelen markt, net zoals de Coco's.

    Opvallend dat Groupama maar 100m winst haalt op een EV van 8 mrd. Volgens onderstaand bericht moet het kapitaal ook nog iets versterkt worden.

    98) Options BFW Jul 07 2014 11:44:30
    Aviva, Generali May Issue T1s on Solvency II Risks: CreditSights 91) ?
    By Charles Daly
    July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Aviva, Generali and Groupama are
    prime candidates for Tier-1 issuance as cos. prepare to optimize
    balance sheets given capital needs under Solvency II, Philippe
    Picagne, analyst at CreditSights, writes in client note.
    • Three cos. are at risk under Solvency II owing to low amounts of shareholders’
    equity and reliance of “soft and pseudo capital tiers”
    • Cos. all have excessively high levels of soft capital (including Value In
    Force) with Aviva at 101% of avg. shareholders’ equity, Generali at 146% and
    Groupama at 167%
    • Tier-1 capital that includes VIF is capped to 50% of co.’s solvency capital
    requirement, under current draft of Solvency II
    • NOTE: VIF is a measure of future profit from policies that an insurance
    co. holds
    • Tier-1 issuance will be needed to strengthen their economic/solvency capital
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