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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

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  1. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 15:55
    Oil prices above US$61 amidst refinery disruptions, Fahd's death

    LONDON : World oil prices have jumped above 61 dollars per barrel, mainly on concerns about possible supply shortages during the fourth quarter, as markets shrugged off the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia.

    New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, climbed 45 cents Monday to 61.02 dollars per barrel in electronic dealing after a intra-day peak of 61.23 dollars.

    In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in September gained 61 cents to 59.98 dollars per barrel.

    "The main focus is still on refinery problems, with BP at the weekend closing a gasoline, or petrol, unit at the Texas City refinery," analysts at the Sucden brokerage firm said.

    A fire hit the refinery in the southern United States last Thursday, causing New York's oil price to hit 61 dollars on Friday for the first time since July 13.

    Refineries are working flat out to produce enough heating fuel in time for the northern hemisphere winter later this year. Oil futures reached a record 62.10 dollars per barrel in New York and 60.70 dollars in London on July 7 in the wake of fatal bombings in London.

    The British energy giant meanwhile on Monday said that the Schiehallion oil platform off the West Shetland Islands remained shut following a fire last Friday.

    The BP spokesman said the company was "looking at days, not weeks" for repairs to finish and production to resume on the platform operated by the company. The fire at Schiehallion, which produces about 120,000 barrels of oil per day, did not cause any spillage and nobody was injured, he added.

    The Shetlands, which form part of Britain, are situated more than 300 miles (480 kilometres) north of Edinburgh.

    Traders meanwhile digested news of the death of Fahd, whose country is the world's biggest oil exporter. They said the king's death on Monday was providing a little support for prices and that exports from the kingdom were unlikely to be disrupted.

    "It certainly won't change the Saudis' view on how to export," one London trader said. The internal politics might change a bit but on the oil side I don't think there is going to be a change at all."

    King Fahd, who was believed to be 84, had been ill for many years.

    Following his death, a senior Saudi oil official told AFP that Saudi Arabia would maintain output at levels required to ensure market stability.

    Saudi Arabia currently produces about 9.5 million barrels per day with the capacity for an additional 1.5 million barrels per day.

    Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, the popular crown prince of Saudi Arabia, has been named ruler of the kingdom following the passing of his half-brother.

    - AFP/ir

    www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_w...
  2. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 15:59
    quote:

    Munte maken schreef:

    Ga je ook een short positie innemen A Fake Film?
    Nope, geen short positie.
    Ik vind de olieprijs te onzeker, en ik ben toch meer een korte termijn belegger.

    Ik heb nu turbo's long EUR/DOL.
    Ik weet dat het in een neerwaartse trend zit, maar ik heb er het volste vertrouwen in, en meer kan ik niet hebben.

    Als ik gelijk heb met de EUR/DOL zal de AEX waarschijnlijk snel naar beneden gaan, en daar ga ik ook short in, als dat dan duidelijk is...

    Toch zou ik nu in de olie liever short dan long gaan.
  3. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 17:27
    Oil above $61

    Refinery problems at BP seen having greater impact than death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd

    LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed above $61 a barrel Monday after the death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd, but expectations that the new king would keep oil policy unchanged stemmed the rise.

    U.S. light, sweet crude for September delivery was up 78 cents at $61.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices have risen 40 percent this year, and are currently about a dollar below the record high of $62.10 hit on July 7.

    The price has risen 40 percent this year and is just under a dollar below the record high of $62.10 hit on July 7.

    King Fahd died Monday and will be succeeded by Crown Prince Abdullah, his half-brother who has been the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995. (Full story.)

    Abdullah is expected to adhere to Saudi Arabia's long-standing oil policy aimed at ensuring global markets are well supplied, a leading Saudi diplomat said on Monday.

    "I cannot imagine that there will be any particular change (in oil and foreign policy)," the kingdom's next ambassador to the U.S. and outgoing ambassador to Britain, Prince Turki al-Faisal, told reporters.

    Analysts also saw any changes in Saudi policy as unlikely, and expected the price impact to be minimal.

    "It's not going to have a great deal of effect because Crown Prince Abdullah has been effectively running the country for several years," said Geoff Pyne, Energy Consultant to Standard Bank.

    "It could have a psychological effect on markets. Anything which adds uncertainty to the market could be construed as bullish in the short-term."

    Refineries under fire
    Before the news of Fahd's death, prices had risen Monday after a spate of refinery problems in the United States resurrected concerns about meeting strong fuel demand.

    BP (up $1.00 to $66.88, Research) added to the anxiety at the weekend by shutting a gasoline-producing unit at its giant Texas City refinery -- the third-largest in the U.S. and source of 3 percent of its gasoline -- for maintenance, a regulatory filing showed.

    It was unclear whether or not the shutdown was related to a Thursday night fire in a secondary unit that BP had said reduced the plant's overall gasoline production by 35,000 bpd.

    That fire came four months after an explosion at the plant killed 15 workers, highlighting the rising risks to operations as refiners attempt to run flat-out to satisfy rising demand.

    "Any instances such as the recent fires are going to really play on the market's mind, add that little bit more to a risk premium," said Gerard Burg, minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd.

    Although stockpiles of most fuels are relatively healthy for this time of year, traders fear refiners may be hard-pressed to satisfy rising summer motor fuel consumption while also stocking up enough distillate supplies to meet peak winter consumption.

    Refineries have been running near full tilt all summer, hitting 98.1 percent of capacity at the beginning of July, but outages have crimped operating rates. They were running at just 93.5 percent of capacity last week.

    Valero Energy Corp. (up $0.46 to $83.24, Research) said Friday that production was reduced slightly at two of its refineries, while Marathon Corp. (up $0.88 to $59.24, Research) and Murphy Oil Corp. (up $0.27 to $53.31, Research) also shut refining units late last week.

    The refinery accidents were compounded by crude production outages at a time when OPEC is pumping at a 25-year high, leaving it little spare capacity to deal with sudden disruptions.

    BP shut in 120,000 bpd of crude output at the Schiehallion oilfield in the North Sea on Friday, while 100,000 bpd of output from India's Bombay High oilfield will be shut for at least a month after a key platform was destroyed in a fire Thursday.

    money.cnn.com/2005/08/01/markets/oil....
  4. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 17:53
    een tijdje terug vroeg ik me in het draadje 'olieraffinage' al af hoe dat nu zit met die belachelijk hoge bezettingspercentages van de amerikaanse raffinaderijen... (het is altijd leuk om gelijk te krijgen, ik ben ook maar een mens) ;O)

    in navolging van postzaks berichtje:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) — The risk of accidents at oil refineries (search) in the United States is on the rise as plants, running near full-throttle, get worn down ahead of seasonal maintenance in the fall, energy analysts said Friday.

    Fires broke out at two major oil refineries in the Gulf Coast Thursday, including BP (search)'s beleaguered refinery in Texas City. Experts said more problems could arise after months of soaring refining activity.

    "This time of year you always have things blow up," said Bill O'Grady, analyst at A.G. Edwards in Chicago. "Refineries are getting stretched. Its part of the landscape."

    Refinery outages can push up prices for gasoline heating oil and crude by cutting into stockpiles in America, the world's largest energy consumer.

    Oil companies typically perform maintenance on refineries in the spring and fall, when demand is low. They generally run them at high utilization rates in the winter and the summer when demand is higher.

    This summer, refineries have been running consistently over 90 percent of capacity to meet robust gasoline demand and to top off distillates stockpiles, like heating oil, ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

    "Refineries like to run full-out at this time of the year," said Jim Ritterbusch, analyst at Ritterbusch & Associates. "We're between two periods of seasonal maintenance, trying to build up distillates and keep up with gasoline demand."

    "The good news is that these high refinery runs have given us a distillate supply surplus. But we've seen erosion in the gasoline surplus, and that surplus could be erased by mid to late August, especially with refinery snags."

    BP said Friday it was investigating the cause of a fire in a hydrotreater unit (search) at its Texas City, Texas, refinery Thursday that shut 60,000 barrels per day of production.

    The Texas City refinery, the third largest in the United States, was the site of a fatal explosion in late March that killed 15 workers and injured 170 others.

    Also on Thursday, Murphy Oil (search) reported a fire at its Meraux, Louisiana, refinery, forcing shut an 18,000 bpd kerosene hydrotreater for an undetermined amount of time.

    While neither incident was likely to have a significant impact on U.S. gasoline or distillate inventories, market watchers said they underscored the vulnerability of refineries at this time of year.

    "We're at a stage now where if refineries are not running all out, we can't keep up with demand. We don't have any supply cushion to help cushion increases in demand," said Peter Beutel, analyst, Cameron Hanover.

    U.S. gasoline and distillate supplies are in or above the average range for this time of the year, but demand has been holding strong in the face of high prices, keeping strain on the market.

    Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has averaged 1.6 percent higher than last year, while distillate demand has averaged 3.6 percent higher, according to government figures.
  5. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 19:31
    quote:

    The artist schreef:

    wat is de hoogste koers van olie dit jaar ?

    The Artist
    slotkoers volgens mij: $ 62.10

    Intra, vandaag dacht ik: $ 62.30
  6. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 19:42
    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    [quote=The artist]
    wat is de hoogste koers van olie dit jaar ?

    The Artist
    [/quote]

    slotkoers volgens mij: $ 62.10

    Intra, vandaag dacht ik: $ 62.30
    Dus eigenlijk hebben we vandaag een nieuw record, of toch zeer dicht in de buurt.

    Bedankt postzak

    The Artist
  7. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 20:04
    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Ik vind het wel even mooi zo. Ik zit eigenlijk te hopen op een flinke correctie, zodat ik weer links en rechts kan instappen.
    Hoe lang wachten we al niet op een mooie correctie, hé.

    ;-)

    The Artist
  8. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2005 20:09
    quote:

    The artist schreef:

    [quote=postzak]
    Ik vind het wel even mooi zo. Ik zit eigenlijk te hopen op een flinke correctie, zodat ik weer links en rechts kan instappen.
    [/quote]

    Hoe lang wachten we al niet op een mooie correctie, hé.

    ;-)

    The Artist
    Ja dat is waar. Ik geloof ook heilig in een doorzetting van de trend, maar voor de KT is het fraai als je snel een rendement kunt boeken. Dan kun je snel van een fonds af als je dat wil.
  9. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2005 10:25
    Op de website van Peakoil Ierland is de nieuwe ASPO nieuwsbrief geschreven door Colin Campbell te vinden. Het uitputtings model van ASPO wat eerder de algehele oliepiek (inclusief onconventionele olie) in 2007 plaatste neemt nu ook aardgas mee. Volgens ASPO gaat de piek in aardgas in 2009 plaatsvinden.

    Andere onderwerpen zijn de toekomst van de vliegtuigindustrie, het Midden Oosten, een brief aan de premier van Canada, de aardgasprijzen in Engeland et cetera. Interessant feit is dat de Engelse gasprijzen voor januari 2006 nu al verhandeld worden alsof de olie in die tijd rond de 108 dollar per vat staat. Aldus de laatste ASPO nieuwsbrief.

    www.peakoil.nl/pivot/entry.php?id=184...
  10. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2005 10:28
    Ik heb het al eerder tig keer gezegd...goedkope olie is vrijwel op:

    Shell zoekt opnieuw naar olie voor kust Alaska
    Shell gaat opnieuw naar olie zoeken voor de kust van de Amerikaanse staat Alaska.

    36 miljoen euro
    Het olieconcern heeft laten weten dat het bij de veiling in maart beslag heeft weten te leggen op 84 van de 122 concessies in de Beaufort Zee. Shell bood destijds 36 miljoen euro voor de concessies.

    Olieprijs
    Het is niet de eerste keer dat Shell naar olie zoekt in het gebied. In de jaren '70 en '80 werden enkele olievelden gevonden, maar ontginning daarvan was door de toenmalige lage olieprijs niet rendabel. De velden werden aan BP verkocht, dat er tegenwoordig 70.000 vaten per dag produceert.

    Concurrentie
    Shell krijgt nu in het gebied te maken met concurrenten ConocoPhillips en de samenwerkende oliemaatschappijen Kerr-McGee en Armstrong.

    www.rtl.nl/(/financien/rtlz/home/)/co...
  11. [verwijderd] 2 augustus 2005 11:29
    Small explosive targets British interests in Iran
    An explosive device with a weak charge has gone off outside the offices of British Airways (BA) and British Petroleum (BP) in the Iranian capital, without causing casualties.

    A spokesman for the British embassy says the small parcel device exploded outside the BA and BP offices on the 10th floor of the Tehran building.

    The device was placed in a dustbin outside the office, causing limited damage and shattering windows.

    A BA spokesman in London said: "There was no damage to the BA office, but the office will be shut for the rest of the day. I understand it was a very small device in a bin."

    www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/...
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