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Olie: de waarheid

1. [verwijderd] 16 april 2005 12:43

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   Het zogenaamde ‘economische’ motief in de geest van, zodra de prijs ‘hoog genoeg’ is, dan zoekt vindt men vanzelf wel een alternatief/alternatieven die gezamelijk een vervanging zijn voor de grondstof aardolie gaat niet op. Het drukken van geld en/of dit in een of andere administratie weergeven zorgt er niet voor dat men die alternatieven ter beschikkinng heeft/krijgt. Tenslotte kunnen de overheden van VS en Europa, bijvoorbeeld redelijk eenvoudig geld drukken. Geld is tenslotte ‘drukwerk’,Men hoeft slechts een cliche te maken voor triljard dollar biljetten en in de persen te doen. Dit doen de overheden echter niet omdat de overheden ook wel weten dat dit de zaak niet oplost.
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 19 april 2005 21:03

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   Oil industry failing to hold the line
   
   
   
   
   
   April 20, 2005
   
   
   
   
   The world's energy producers, from Exxon Mobil to Petroleos de Venezuela to Saudi Aramco, are failing to invest enough in exploration and production to keep up with demand and hold prices in check.
   
   Producers will spend US$176.8 billion (HK$1.38 trillion) this year to find and develop oil and gas fields, said James Crandell, a Lehman Brothers analyst who has tracked such spending since 1982. That's less than the US$211 billion in annual outlays the International Energy Agency says is needed through 2030 as daily demand rises to 121 million barrels from about 83 million today.
   
   "I haven't seen anybody who can very clearly explain to me where those 40 million barrels are going to come from,'' said former US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham last month.
   
   "It's going to take a huge amount of investment, way beyond what I'm seeing right now.''
   
   Lack of investment helped push prices to a record US$58.28 a barrel in New York April 4 because it eroded OPEC's ability to pump more oil as demand and prices rose. Excess capacity cushioned the oil market in the 1990s, a decade when oil averaged US$19.69 and topped US$30 just once.
   
   The Group of Seven industrial nations has called for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost output to counter the record prices. Members of the G7, which include the United States, Japan and Germany, represent two-thirds of global economic output.
   
   ``Oil prices currently pose the biggest economic risk,'' said German Finance Minister Hans Eichel at a G7 press conference in Washington.
   
   Publicly traded oil companies are diverting windfall profits to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, while state-owned producers funnel cash from record prices into bigger social programs, said the Paris-based IEA in a January 18 report. There are ``competing claims for recently inflated cash flow,'' said the report.
   
   OPEC, source of 40 percent of the world's oil, may be reluctant to expand production too quickly for fear any hiccup in economic growth would cut demand and result in a glut that sends prices plunging, said Ben Walker, a London-based portfolio manager at Gartmore Global Investments.
   
   Adnan Shihab-Eldin, OPEC's former research director and now its acting secretary-general said oil producers want to avoid a repeat of 1986, when prices dropped to about US$10 a barrel.
   
   Returns on investment for US-based oil companies fell to 0.8 percent in 1986, the second-lowest on record, from 9.5 percent in 1985. The only year returns were lower was 1998, when the Asian economic collapse pushed crude to US$10.35 a barrel and returns sank to 0.5 percent.
   
   Exploratory spending has also been restrained because, 150 years after the advent of the petroleum industry, the number of places left to explore is dwindling, said Aubrey McClendon, chief executive at Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy Corp.
   
   ``There's less stuff to drill for any more,'' he said. ``I don't expect there to be a huge explosion in exploration in the next few years.''
   
   Crandell, with Lehman Brothers in New York, said his survey of 327 oil companies and state-owned producers found that ``prospect availability continues to be a leading issue hampering spending, both domestically and internationally.'' Crandell conducts his survey twice a year, publishing the results in December and May.
   
   While oil prices have fallen 14 percent since touching their all-time high two weeks ago, oil bulls say that any decline is a brief respite in a multiyear rally.
   
   ``Oil can go to US$35, but the trend for oil is up,'' said hedge fund manager Jim Rogers, co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum hedge fund. ``There has been no major discovery anywhere in the world for over 35 years,'' said Rogers in New York.
   
   Oil may reach US$100 or US$150 in the next decade, he said.
   
   Exxon Mobil, which pumped more oil last year than every member of OPEC except Saudi Arabia and Iran, expects global demand for crude to reach 118 million barrels a day by 2030.
   
   OPEC ``has the resource base'' to provide 20 million barrels of the increase in daily supply, Exxon Mobil's energy planning manager said Scott Nauman. OPEC members Iran and Iraq ``have just scratched the surface'' of their reserves.
   
   Twenty million barrels would represent 59 percent of the global production increase needed to meet Exxon Mobil's demand forecast. The 11 members of OPEC today pump almost 30 million barrels a day.
   
   Exxon Mobil's demand estimate is lower than those of the IEA, International Monetary Fund and US Energy Department partly because the company expects fuel efficiency in automobiles and trucks to increase by 2.2 percent annually.
   
   IEA chief economist Fatih Birol also said that Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have adequate resources to meet global needs over many years. Whether they will adopt policies that attract needed investment is less clear. ``There is enough oil and there is enough capital,'' he said. ``Whether they can meet or not, this is the question.''
   
   Iran is off-limits to US oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and ChevronTexaco because of US laws designed to punish the country for supporting terrorism. Saudi Arabia has kept its oil industry in the hands of Saudi Aramco. Iraq's output remains about a third lower than it was five years ago as insurgents attack oil infrastructure.
   
   The Goldman Sachs analysts who predicted last month that oil could reach US$105 a barrel said restrictions on oil industry investment in the Middle East and Russia are part of the reason for tight supplies.
   
   To be sure, producers including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are promising to boost production. Exxon Mobil's Nauman predicts that obstacles to boosting output in countries with the most oil ``tend to work themselves out.''
   
   Abu Dhabi, which produces most of the oil in the UAE, says it will add 200,000 barrels per day to its output capacity by early next year. ``There is more oil to be discovered,'' said chief executive Yousef Omair bin Yousef. The UAE is about even with Kuwait as the fourth-biggest OPEC producer.
   
   Abdallah Jumah, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, struck a similar tone.
   
   ``There is plenty of new onshore and offshore exploration across the world still to come, especially in an environment of healthy oil prices,'' he said. Saudi Arabia has ``long term'' plans to raise capacity by 43 percent to 15 million barrels a day.
   
   OPEC expects to shoulder 51 percent of the world's demand load by 2025, up from 40 percent today, Shihab-Eldin said this month.
   
   But oil producers need to find new sources of crude to slow a price rise that ``will continue to present a serious risk to the global economy,'' said Raghuram Rajan, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist.
   
   BLOOMBERG
   
   
   
   
3. [verwijderd] 21 april 2005 22:59

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   als een dief in de nacht deze tekst gestolen.
   
   Valt me op dat by gainer - 84.194.183.153 21/04/2005 20:37:24
   
   Brent Crude een duurdere notatie heeft dan WTI..in de laatste dagen..wat jaren anders was...
   
   Conclusie is simpel wereldvraag is groter dan de vraag in de US...of valt er ergens een probleen op te speuren in het aanbod van deze...laatste..
   
   Gr Gainer
   
   Mail - Print
   
   Ps: deze Gainer heeft zijn naam niet gestolen, hij heeft een rendement achter de rug om te verschieten.
   
   hij post op cash.be
   
   The Artist
4. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 02:04

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   China fuels energy cold war
   By Chietigj Bajpaee
   
   HONG KONG - A notable feature of 2004 was the volatility in oil prices - New York light sweet crude prices reached a peak of US$55.67 on October 25, ending the year up 33.6% at $43.45 per barrel. While a number of supply-side and supply-chain factors have contributed to this situation, the most significant long-term factor contributing to rising oil prices is an increase in Asian demand, most notably from China. China's unprecedented growth not only makes it a driver of a long-term increase in energy prices, but also the most vulnerable to rising oil prices.
   
   China, which has been a net oil importer since 1993, is the world's number two oil consumer after the US and has accounted for 40% of the world's crude oil demand growth since 2000. China's proven oil reserves stand at 18 trillion barrels, and oil imports account for one-third of its crude oil consumption.
   
   China has initiated numerous policies to cope with its increasing energy needs, including stepping up exploration activities within its own borders, diversifying beyond oil to access other energy resources, such as nuclear power, coal, natural gas and renewable energy resources, promoting energy conservation and encouraging investment into energy-friendly technologies such as hydrogen-powered fuel cells and coal gasification.
   
   China has also joined the United States and Japan in developing strategic petroleum reserves, with the creation of 75 days of emergency reserves in four locations in Zhejiang, Shandong and Liaoning provinces.
   
   Nevertheless, in the face of sporadic power shortages, growing car ownership and air travel across China and the importance of energy to strategically important and growing industries such as agriculture, construction, and steel and cement manufacturing, pressure is going to mount on China to access energy resources on the world stage.
   
   As a result, energy security has become an area of vital importance to China's stability and security. China is stepping up efforts to secure sea lanes and transport routes that are vital for oil shipments, and diversifying beyond the volatile Middle East to find energy resources in other regions, such as Africa, the Caspian, Russia, the Americas and the East and South China Sea region.
   
   However, just as China has for centuries engaged in competition for leadership of Asia, the developing world and status on the world stage, so the need for energy security has now raised the possibility of further competition and confrontation in the energy sphere.
   
   This competition has so far been limited to the economic sphere through state-owned oil and gas companies such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), its subsidiary PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation. However, as oil prices rise and China imports an increasing amount of its energy needs, the competition is likely to spill over into the political and military spheres. There are already indications of this.
   
   China's quest for energy resources on the world stage is creating a destabilizing effect on international and regional security. Fueled by the lack of a coherent multilateral approach to energy security in Asia and by China's already tense relations with neighboring states, the competition for energy resources may prove to be the spark for regional and international conflict. In many cases, China is vying for energy resources in some of the most unstable parts of the world. Its involvement in regions with raging conflicts could potentially draw it into the disputes, escalating a regional conflict into an international conflict.
   
   Sino-Japanese energy competition
   While Sino-Japanese trade has reached unprecedented levels in recent years, the economic progress could be unraveled by political and military confrontation, and by energy competition. China continues to have tense relations with Japan as a result of a number of issues. These issues include, but are not limited to, Chinese opposition to a Japanese permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, former Taiwanese president Lee Teng Hui's visit to Japan at the end of 2004, and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's annual visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Japan's war dead, including 14 Class A war criminals.
   
   There has also been discussion in Japan about cutting its overseas development assistance to China in the presence of China's improving standard of living, high growth levels and confrontational relations with Japan. These tensions are likely to be further enflamed by both states' quest for energy security. Both states are net oil importers, with Japan importing as much as 80% of its oil needs.
   
   In an attempt to access energy resources closer to home and diversifying beyond the Middle East, Japan and China have been actively lobbying Moscow for an oil pipeline. Beijing is pushing for a 2,400 kilometer route from Angarsk in Siberia to Daqing in China's northeast Heilongjiang province, while Tokyo favors a 4,000 kilometer pipeline from Taishet to the Pacific port of Nakhodka.
   
   The Japanese-backed proposal was announced the winner at the end of 2004. However, with the sometimes tense relations between Japan and Russia, as seen most recently over Koizumi's sail around the disputed Northern Territories/ Southern Kurils on September 2, and Japan and Russia not having signed a formal peace treaty ending the hostilities of World War II, the construction of the pipeline may still experience several delays. Furthermore, China is not yet out of the picture as there are still discussions to build a branch from the Japanese pipeline to China by 2020.
   
   Closer to home, a territorial dispute between China and Japan in the East China Sea, which both sides claim as their exclusive economic zone (EEZ), is being further fueled by reports of vast supplies of oil and gas in the region. The disputed territory includes the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands and the Chunxiao gas field northeast of Taiwan, which, according to a 1999 Japanese survey, holds 200 billion cubic meters of gas. Japan regards the median line as its border, while China claims jurisdiction over the entire continental shelf. In 2003, China began drilling in the area after the Japanese rejected a Chinese proposal to develop the field jointly. Although the Chunxiao gas field is on the Chinese side of the median line, Japan claims that China may be siphoning energy resources on the Japanese side.
   
   The competition recently took the form of a military confrontation following the incursion of a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine into Japanese waters off the Okinawa islands on November 10 last year. The intrusion was followed by a two-day chase across the East China Sea. While China offered a swift apology for the incursion, this was soon followed by the intrusion of a Chinese research vessel into Japanese waters near the island of Okinotori. The vessel is believed to have been surveying the seabed for oil and gas drilling purposes. This was the 34th maritime research exercise by Chinese vessels within Japan's EEZ in 2004, up from eight in 2003, with China not giving prior notification in 21 of the 34 cases.
   
   Adding to these tensions is Japan's shift from its post-war pacifist and defensive posture toward a more active military role in the region, as seen with the current deployment of its Self Defense Forces
5. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 02:06

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   Adding to these tensions is Japan's shift from its post-war pacifist and defensive posture toward a more active military role in the region, as seen with the current deployment of its Self Defense Forces to Iraq. Furthermore, Japan has for the first time identified China as a potential security threat in its National Defense Program Outline released in December 2004. Three issues have been identified that could spark a conflict between China and Japan: natural resources in the disputed East China Sea, the disputed status of the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands and Japanese support for the US in a conflict with China over Taiwan. Mistrust and animosities rooted in Japanese atrocities during World War II combined with a confrontation over tangible issues, such as territory and energy resources, and a more active role by both states on the world stage create a recipe for a volatile situation.
   
   Securing sea lanes
   To China's south, another long-standing maritime territorial dispute in the South China Sea over the Spratly and Paracel islands threatens to be further enflamed by China's quest for energy security. The 130 islands making up the Paracel islands, which have been occupied by China since 1974, are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. The 400 islands of the Spratly islands are claimed partially by the Philippines, Brunei and Indonesia, and are fully claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan and China.
   
   Relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have improved with China signing up to ASEAN's Treaty of Amity of Friendship and Cooperation in 2003 and all sides signing the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002. Nevertheless, tensions remain. In violation of the 2002 agreement, five states have permanent military garrisons on the atolls in addition to surveillance facilities under the guise of "bird watching" towers, weather huts and tourist facilities. The fact that Taiwan is not a signatory to any of these agreements is also a cause for concern.
   
   A particular source of tension derives from the sometimes volatile relations between China and Vietnam. Most recently, China has commenced joint pre-exploration studies with the Philippines in the South China Sea, which has been openly opposed by Vietnam. China, meanwhile, has protested to PetroVietnam welcoming international bids for drilling and exploration activities in the disputed waters and Vietnam starting commercial flights and tours of the disputed territory.
   
   Both states have engaged in sporadic clashes on at least four occasions, the most violent of which took place in 1988 in which the Chinese sank three Vietnamese naval vessels, killing 76 sailors. Sino-Vietnamese tensions have recently taken a back seat to the burgeoning trade relationship between both states, with China now becoming Vietnam's third-largest trading partner. A hotline was also established between both states in August 2004 as part of a commitment to resolve land and sea border disputes by peaceful means. However, as China expands its naval power projection capabilities and becomes increasingly desperate to access potential energy resources in the region, conflict may once again overtake cooperation.
   
   These regional territorial disputes also have the potential to escalate into international conflicts, given the importance of the waterways to international trade and the number of bilateral security commitments between regional states and major world powers, such as between the US and the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, and between numerous Western powers and their former colonies (eg the British to Malaysia and Singapore, the French to Vietnam). For example, following the Chinese occupation in February 1995 of the Mischief Reef, which is 135 miles west of the Philippine islands of Palawan, the US conducted naval exercises with the Philippines close to the disputed territory. The joint exercises may be regarded as a warning to China's increasingly aggressive posturing in the region.
   
   Also in Southeast Asia, China is pushing to secure the narrow Malacca Strait, which experiences 40% of the world's piracy. As much as 80% of China's oil imports flow through the 630 mile-long strait, which is just 1.5 miles wide at its narrowest point. Like Japan and the US, China is pushing to acquire a national fleet of very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, that could be employed in the case of supply disruptions brought on by an accident or terrorist attack along the Malacca Strait or a US-led blockade during a conflict over Taiwan. Currently, only 10% of China's crude oil imports come aboard Chinese vessels. China's growing anxiety over the security of its oil imports was demonstrated in June 2004, when China conducted its first anti-terror exercise simulating an attack on an oil tanker.
   
   China is also looking into bypassing the straits with discussions for a pipeline to Myanmar, as well as possibly Bangladesh, Pakistan or Thailand. Pakistan looks like an unlikely candidate given the threat of terrorist attacks on pipelines traversing its territory. A pipeline through Bangladesh would have to cross the territory of strategic competitor India. Increasing sectarian violence in southern Thailand coupled with the country's close relationship with the US make a pipeline through Thailand unlikely as well. This leaves Myanmar as the most likely option, with a 1,250 kilometer pipeline from the deepwater port of Sittwe on the Bay of Bengal to Kunming in Yunnan province. Coupled with India's desire to access energy resources within Myanmar and Myanmar's proximity to India's troubled northeast insurgencies, Myanmar has become a potential stage for Sino-Indian energy competition.
   
   Central Asia: The new great game
   On its western borders, China has been an active player in the new great game. As part of its "Go West" development policy, China's longest pipeline, the 4,200 kilometer Tarim Basin to Shanghai gas pipeline, came online in August 2004. China's west-to-east pipeline could potentially be extended to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and even further to Iran and the Caspian Sea. In October 2004, construction began on a 988 kilometer pipeline from Atasu in northwestern Kazakhstan to Alataw Pass in China's Xinjiang province, which will carry 10 million tons of oil a year once it is completed in 2005. The Chinese are also helping to develop oil fields in Uzbekistan and hydroelectric power projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
   
   China's growing engagement with Central Asia has been motivated by a number of strategic interests. China led the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which began as the Shanghai Five in 1996. This body was formed in the presence of a civil war in Tajikistan, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, a series of terrorist attacks in Xinjiang, and Islamist revivalism in Uzbekistan under the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan/Turkestan (IMU/IMT) and more recently by Hizb-ut Tahrir.
   
   SCO has moved from resolving border disputes to fighting the "three evils" of extremism, terrorism and fundamentalism and promoting greater economic integration and development in Central Asia and China's west. The Central Asian states have agreed to China's "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence", as well as subscribing to China's viewpoint on numerous regional and international issues, including Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and the need for a multipolar world. Under the aegis of the SCO,
6. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 02:07

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   Under the aegis of the SCO, China has also expanded its military presence in Central Asia, establishing an anti-terror center in Tashkent and engaging in its first joint military exercises with a foreign army in Kyrgyzstan in 2002.
   
   However, China's increasing presence in Central Asia has been accompanied by a Russian reengagement with the region, an increasing US presence following September 11 as well as an increasing role by India (using its historical links), Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (using their religious links), Turkey and Iran (using their cultural links) and South Korea and Japan (that are relying on economic links to the region).
   
   Numerous overlapping power blocs are emerging in the region, which spill over into the energy arena. For example, improving Sino-Indian relations have manifested in the energy sphere, with the chairman of Xinjiang autonomous region, Ismail Tiliwandi, making a trip to India in October 2004 to discuss transport links and a Sino-Indian natural gas pipeline project. With a growing military presence in the region and increasing desperation to access the region's energy resources, it is conceivable that Central Asia could re-emerge as the stage for future great power conflicts.
   
   China expands in the Middle East
   China has also attempted to improve relations with its already-established oil suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, by selling them military technology, investing in their industries and energy infrastructure and looking the other way with respect to their human-rights records.
   
   Currently, China derives 13.6% of its oil imports from Iran. In March 2004, China signed a $100 million deal with Iran to import 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas over a 25-year period in exchange for Chinese investment in Iran's oil and gas exploration, petrochemical and pipeline infrastructure.
   
   Growing Sino-Iranian relations are undermining US sanctions against Iran. The Bush administration has sanctioned Chinese companies 62 times for violating US or international controls on the transfer of weapons technology to Iran and other states.
   
   The US Central Intelligence Agency has submitted a report to US Congress stating that Chinese companies have "helped Iran move toward its goal of becoming self-sufficient in the production of ballistic missiles". In the ongoing controversy over Iran's uranium enrichment program, China has also opposed bringing the issue before the UN Security Council, and has even threatened to veto any resolution that is brought against Iran.
   
   As Saudi-US relations have soured in the post-September 11 world, the Saudi-US strategic partnership may be supplanted by a Sino-Saudi partnership. Saudi oil shipments to the US declined in 2004, while they increased to China. Sinopec has won the right to explore for natural gas in Saudi Arabia's al-Khali Basin and Saudi Arabia has agreed to build a refinery for natural gas in Fujian in exchange for Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia's bauxite and phosphate industry. Cooperation in the economic and energy spheres complements an already burgeoning relationship in the military sphere, as seen with China selling Saudi Arabia Silkworm missiles during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and both states having strong relations with Pakistan.
   
   Russia: Revival of the strategic triangle
   Russia is China's fifth-largest crude oil supplier, with LuKoil now replacing Yukos as China's main supplier of Russian oil. China is expected to import at least 10 million tons of oil from Russia in 2005 and 15 million in 2006, while Russian rail shipment capacity is expected to increase from 20 million tons in 2004 to 60 million tons by 2006.
   
   The controversy over the sale of Yugansk, which produces 60% of Yukos' oil output and pumps 11% of Russia's oil, has also highlighted the increasing presence of Chinese energy companies in Russia. While the mysterious buyer, Baikal Finance Group, ended up selling its stake in Yugansk to Rosneft in December, which may be acquired by Russian state-owned Gazprom, this does not preclude the possibility of Yukos' assets being acquired by China. China's CNPC has allegedly been offered a 20% percent stake in Yukos and provided a $6 billion loan to Rosneft to purchase Yugansk.
   
   China's support for Russia's accession into the World Trade Organization and growing Sino-Russian trade and cooperation in the fight against terrorism is further cementing Sino-Russian relations. Sino-Russian energy relations appear to be mirroring political and military relations. Just as China increasingly relies on Russian energy resources, so it also constitutes Russia's biggest buyer of Russian military hardware. Russia and China are also to engage in their largest joint military exercises later this year.
   
   In fact, growing Sino-Russian energy cooperation resurrects former Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov's idea for a strategic triangle between Russia, India and China. These states are bound together by their shared interests in the fight against terrorism, the push for a multipolar world and respect for the principles of state sovereignty and non-intervention with regards to their respective "separatist" movements in Chechnya, Kashmir and Taiwan.
   
   Now the energy sector can be added to this list of shared interests. India and China are already collaborating in the energy sphere, with India holding a 20% stake and China a 50% stake in the development of the Yahavaran oil field in Iran. China Gas Holdings has also established an alliance with India's largest energy conglomerate, Gail. With India and China vying for assets in Yukos, Sino-Indian-Russian collaboration in the energy sphere could be further cemented.
   
   Stepping on US toes in Africa and the Americas
   As China has made limited progress in accessing energy resources on its doorsteps due to poor relations with neighboring states, it has shown growing interest in accessing energy resources further afield.
   
   For example, a consortium 40% owned by China's CNPC pumps over 300,000 barrels per day in Sudan. China is also a major supplier of arms to the Sudanese government, which has just concluded a peace agreement with the main rebel group in the south, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), ending 20 years of conflict sparked over the allocation of oil revenues. The Sudanese government is still engaged in a conflict in the Darfur region of western Sudan using proxy militias. China is also vying for energy resources in Angola and other energy-rich African states by offering arms and aid for oil.
   
   China is also acquiring energy resources in the Americas. While attending the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile in November 2004, Chinese President Hu Jintao announced an energy deal with Brazil worth $10 billion, supplementing a $1.3 billion deal between Sinopec and Petrobras for a 2000 kilometer natural gas pipeline.
   
   China is also acquiring oil assets in Ecuador, as well as investing in offshore petroleum projects in Argentina. During Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's visit to Beijing last December and Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong's visit to Venezuela in January, China also committed to develop Venezuela's energy infrastructure by investing $350 million in 15 oil fields and $60 million in a gas project in Venezuela.
   
   On January 20, during Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin's visit to Beijing, China and Canada also signed a joint statement on energ
7. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 02:11

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   On January 20, during Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin's visit to Beijing, China and Canada also signed a joint statement on energy cooperation which included accessing Canada's oil sands and uranium resources. China's growing energy interests in the Americas have been accompanied by a growing involvement in the region's security.
   
   In October, China sent a UN peacekeeping contingent to Haiti in its first military deployment to Latin America. Ironically, Haiti is one of only 25 states that recognize Taiwan rather than China. The US is looking on with caution as China encroaches on a region that has traditionally been under its sphere of influence and a major supplier of energy resources. Venezuela and Canada together provide the US with a quarter of its energy imports.
   
   Conclusion
   Friction between China and the West has so far focused on the question of China's undervalued exchange rate, its human-rights record and relations with "rogue" states. However, competition over energy resources is now becoming an additional area of contention.
   
   China's growing presence on the international energy stage could ultimately bring it into confrontation with the world's largest energy consumer, the US. While China and the US have launched the US-China Energy Policy Dialogue, both states are also engaged in a competition for energy resources in Russia, the Caspian, the Middle East, the Americas and Africa. This competition could potentially combine with other areas of friction. For example, in the event of China engaging in a conflict with Taiwan, Japan or India or internal repression such as a repeat of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, the US could censure China's actions by an oil embargo or by blocking vital sea lanes in the Malacca Strait, thus sparking a wider conflict.
   
   It is not by coincidence that China has made progress in resolving its border disputes with India and Russia, while failing to make progress on territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and in the South China Sea, given that the latter involve access to potential oil and gas resources. In this context, China's claim to pursuing a "peaceful ascendancy" policy and putting aside areas of disagreement in favor of creating a stable environment for economic development is limited to areas where China's vital strategic interests are not threatened.
8. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 02:32

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   pas op vorige tekst bestaat uit 4 delen.
   
   The Artist
9. poortje 22 april 2005 02:40

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   artist, wat is de hoofdboodschap volgens jou van de vier stukken, het is nogal wat tekst?
   
   gr
   
   pieter
10. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 03:18

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    voor U is het The Artist.
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 18:25

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    Olieprijzen kunnen hoog blijven
    
    22 april 2005
    
    Het Amerikaanse Energy Department verwacht dat de olieprijzen in 2005 en 2006 boven het niveau van 50 USD gaan blijven noteren. Op korte termijn zal de markt reageren op berichten over eventuele olietekorten.
    
    Andere factoren, zoals politieke onrust in landen met grote oliereserves en een kleine reservecapaciteit kunnen het spel van vraag en aanbod gaan beïnvloeden. Het AED verwacht geen forse correctie op de oliemarkt.
    
    Wat de Verenigde Staten betreft wordt een gemiddelde vraag van 20,90 miljoen vaten ruwe olie per dag verwacht. Dat is 1,70 % meer dan vorig jaar, aldus nog het AED.
    
    
13. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 21:15

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    Ter informatie:
    
    "...NEW YORK (AP) -- Disappointing first-quarter profits from consumer-focused companies helped push stocks lower Friday as investors, fearing a further economic slowdown, collected profits from the previous session's rally. A surge in oil prices past $55 per barrel also contributed to the sell-off...."
    
    Voor volledig artikel vide: biz.yahoo.com/ap/050422/wall_street.h...
    
    Voorts, op Aljazeera.net wordt de vraag gesteld: "Will oil strike $ 380 a barrel by 2015"
    
    Voor volledig artikel vide: english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/73CE8...
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 22 april 2005 22:15

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    money.cnn.com/markets/commodities/
    
    stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=...
    
    www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.js...
    
    
    
    nog eens herplakt
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 24 april 2005 06:34

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    Bush Faces Hurdles on Energy Agenda
    Saturday April 23, 9:16 pm ET
    By Tom Raum, Associated Press Writer
    President Bush Faces Obstacles in Winning Passage of Legislation to Spur U.S. Energy Production
    
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Running for president five years ago, George W. Bush pledged to jawbone energy-exporting nations to keep oil prices low and to win passage of legislation to spur more domestic energy production.
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    Delivering on either count has proved difficult for the Texas oilman.
    
    Soaring oil and gasoline prices are beginning to take a toll on U.S. economic growth and on Bush's approval ratings. To get his long-stalled energy agenda passed, the president is putting more of his political prestige on the line.
    
    The House voted 249-183 last week for White House-backed legislation that would give tax cuts and subsidies to energy companies and open a wildlife refuge in Alaska to oil exploration.
    
    At a meeting Monday at his Texas ranch, Bush is promising to press Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah, to do more to help ease global oil prices.
    
    Still, the president acknowledges that there is little that he or Congress can do to quickly lower gasoline prices, which have climbed past $2.20 a gallon nationwide.
    
    Critics also claim that Bush's energy bill does little to promote conservation or alternate energy approaches, and that he has done little of the lobbying of oil-country leaders that he promised during in his first presidential campaign.
    
    Robert Ebel, an energy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said nothing that Bush is proposing "is going to have any immediate, or even near-term impact" on prices.
    
    He said Bush is responding politically to consumer concerns that "gasoline prices are high, we haven't yet entered the summer driving season, and what is the president going to do about it?"
    
    Ebel said increasing world demand for oil, particularly from fast-growing China, and lack of new refineries in the United States will exacerbate the problem for years.
    
    With his Social Security overhaul plan winning few converts, Bush may find that promoting his energy agenda has a more immediate political payoff for jittery Republicans.
    
    In a speech last week, Bush said high prices are "like a foreign tax on the American dream." He challenged Congress to send him an energy bill by August and described the proposal as making energy "more affordable and secure" in the future.
    
    Similar legislation passed the House twice in Bush's first term, only to bog down in the Senate under a Democratic filibuster that was waged, in part, to protest possible exploratory drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.
    
    Crude oil prices have risen 40 percent in the past year. But finding ways to curb them pose a particular dilemma for Bush -- complicated by his own actions.
    
    The war in Iraq, for instance, limited Bush's influence among Persian Gulf oil-producing nations.
    
    The president recently ruled out releasing oil from the nation's emergency stockpile, saying he would only tap the 700 million barrel reserve in a national crisis.
    
    Bush criticized President Clinton for tapping into the reserve in 2000, suggesting it was a political gesture to help Vice President Al Gore, then Bush's Democratic rival for the White House.
    
    Bush also criticized the Clinton administration for not lobbying the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, saying Clinton "must jawbone OPEC members to lower prices." Yet as president, Bush mostly has emphasized that market forces should set world oil prices.
    
    In a CNBC interview, Bush said he would press the Saudi crown prince to boost production. "I'll be talking to our friends about making sure they understand that if they pinch the world economy too much, it'll affect their ability to sell crude oil in the long run," Bush said.
    
    Still, he said, there was a chance the Saudis already were pumping crude at "near capacity" levels. Ahead of the crown prince's visit, Saudi Arabia said it would do what it could to step up oil production.
    
    Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said the kingdom is now pumping about 9.5 million barrels per day and could increase that to 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009 if necessary to maintain "market stability."
    
    But, he told a conference in Paris, "The measures taken by OPEC in general and by Saudi Arabia in particular are only a few factors among those which affect oil prices; consequently, our influence is limited."
    
    Bush's expected appeal to the Saudi leader already is drawing scorn from some Democrats. "The president is right to meet with this powerful man, but it is wrong that the leader of the United States must ask favors from a foreign prince," Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., said Saturday in his party's weekly radio address.
    
    Jerry Taylor, an energy analyst at the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank that advocates less government regulation, said the idea that "jawboning OPEC or arranging for nice relations with OPEC will somehow get us more oil is utter illusion."
    
    "The Saudis will produce as much oil as they think is necessary to maximize revenue. Period," Taylor said. China's rising thirst for oil, not supply shortages, is the main factor driving up global oil prices, he and other oil analysts suggested.
    
16. [verwijderd] 24 april 2005 07:07

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    Recent intervieuw met President Bush
    
    www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7559029/page/7/
    
    compleet maf.
    
    The Artist
17. [verwijderd] 25 april 2005 09:28

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    olie nu al weer 55,71 dollar: gaat lekker zo.
18. [verwijderd] 27 april 2005 05:49

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    Ter informatie:
    
    Experts hear oil depletion fear
    
    The timing of peak oil divides opinion
    The world's oil reserves are running out much faster than industry and governments are admitting, a conference in Edinburgh has been told.
    Experts refer to "peak oil", the time when oil extraction reaches its highest point and then starts to decline.
    Many industry experts believe it will not occur until 2030 - but some analysts have stated publicly that it could happen by 2008 or even sooner.
    
    About 200 people from various sectors attended the event.
    
    Dr Jeremy Leggett, a member of the UK government's Renewables Advisory Board, predicted: "Most of us who are worried about this issue would say definitely it will happen some time this decade.
    
    "2008 might be the best guess, plus or minus two years. It's certainly a lot earlier than almost all the world is assuming at the moment.
    
    We need to take this issue as seriously as we take the war on terrorism
    Dr Jeremy Leggett
    Oil expert
    "Oil reserves in many countries are state secrets. The biggest oil companies in the world are owned by governments.
    
    Volledig artikel, vide: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/...
19. [verwijderd] 27 april 2005 06:05

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    Saudis Call for Meeting on Oil Issues
    
    1 hour, 6 minutes ago
    
    
    DALLAS (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah on Tuesday announced the kingdom will host a meeting in Riyadh during the fourth quarter to discuss oil issues between oil producing and consuming nations.
    
    
    
    Speaking at a dinner hosted by the U.S.-Saudi Arabian Business Council, the crown prince said the meeting was necessary "because of the great importance we attach to the stability of the world energy markets and the contribution of these markets to world economic growth."
    
    He did not give a specific date for the meeting.
    
    He also encouraged foreign investment in several Saudi sectors, including petrochemicals and electricity. But he did not ask for an investment in the kingdom's oil sector.
    
    The crown prince on Monday met with President Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, where Abdullah provided details on the kingdom's plan to invest $50 billion to boost Saudi oil production capacity in the years ahead.
    
    Big oil companies would like Saudi Arabia to open its oil sector to foreign investment particularly in exploration and production.
    
    But in his speech the crown prince did not invite foreign oil companies to be a part of the kingdom's new oil investment plan.
    
    
20. [verwijderd] 27 april 2005 07:57

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    Ter informatie:
    
    Het is geen toeval dat de VS overheid uit personen gerelateerd aan 'aardolie' bestaat, voor een belangrijk deel.
    
    Analyst fears global oil crisis in three years
    
    John Vidal, environment editor
    Tuesday April 26, 2005
    The Guardian
    
    One of the world's leading energy analysts yesterday called for an independent assessment of global oil reserves because he believed that Middle Eastern countries may have far less than officially stated and that oil prices could double to more than $100 a barrel within three years, triggering economic collapse.
    Matthew Simmons, an adviser to President George Bush and chairman of the Wall Street energy investment company Simmons, said that "peak oil" - when global oil production rises to its highest point before declining irreversibly - was rapidly approaching even as demand was increasing.
    
    "This is a new era," Mr Simmons told a conference of oil industry analysts, government officials and academics in Edinburgh. "There is a big chance that Saudi Arabia actually peaked production in 1981. We have no reliable data. Our data collection system for oil is rubbish. I suspect that if we had, we would find that we are over-producing in most of our major fields and that we should be throttling back. We may have passed that point."
    Mr Simmons told the meeting that it was inevitable that the price of oil would soar above $100 as supplies failed to meet demand. "Demand is pulling away from supply...and we have to ask whether we have the resources that we think we do. It could be catastrophic if we do not anticipate when peak oil comes."
    
    The precise arrival of peak oil is hotly debated by academics and geologists, but analysts increasingly say that official US Geological Survey estimates that it will not happen for 35 years are over-optimistic.
    
    According to the International Energy Agency, which collates data from all oil producing countries, peak oil will arrive "sometime between 2013 and 2037", with production thereafter expected to decline by about 3% a year.
    
    While oil from conventional sources is expected to decline, more and more is expected to come from "unconventional" supplies found in oil-rich rocks, especially in the US and in deposits of tar found in Venezuela.
    
    The former UK energy minister Brian Wilson, a supporter of both nuclear power and renewables, said that Britain would be unwise to rely completely on importing gas from politically sensitive countries as North Sea reserves declined.
    
    "Seventy percent of our electricity by 2020 will come from gas and 90% of that gas will be imported...We should be planning for an indigenous energy future," he said.
    
    But he added that global reserves were not overestimated. "The concept of peak oil needs to be taken very seriously indeed, [but] my working assumption is that both global oil and gas reserves continue to be significantly underestimated."
    
    But other oil analysts argued strongly that a major financial crisis could occur as soon as 2008. Chris Skrebowski, of the Energy Institute in London, which monitors all major oil discoveries and developments, said depletion of global conventional oil reserves was running at about 5% a year, according to Exxon figures.
    
    "Norway, Venezuela, the UK and Indonesia and many others are all declining production. I expect Denmark, Malaysia, China, Mexico and Brunei to peak within three years...I estimate that we have, at best, 32 months before [the crisis] hits.
    
    Mr Skrebowski predicted, using UK government figures, that production from the British sector of the North Sea would halve within 10 years. "We have a congenital bias to optimism...12 fields in the North Sea basin are seeing rising production, but they are mostly small. Overall, production peaked in 1999. It fell 10% last year and 8.5% the year before," he said.
    
    "Oil will not run out for many years," said Colin Campbell, former vice-president of Fina and chief geologist of the oil giant Amoco. "The information governments give is grossly unreliable. Oil companies report less than they discover for pragmatic reasons, but Opec countries have overestimated what they think their reserves are."
    
    He said many Middle Eastern Opec countries, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, had all significantly lifted their estimated reserves in the late 1980s to benefit from larger quotas, but they had not discovered new fields or changed their estimates since then.
    
    "The real issue is not the actual date of peak production - which I believe is next year - but what happens during the decline of production.
    
    "I think we are in for an extended period of restricted economic activity. I do not think that we will adjust very smoothly," he said.
    
    www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1470330,00.html
21. poortje 1 mei 2005 23:40

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    quote:

    The artist schreef:

    voor U is het The Artist.
    
    
    

    ik zal eraan denken de volgende keer
    
    zal ook niet meer vragen om uitleg
    
    wijsheid,
    
    pieter