Forum: Edelmetalen » Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

[verwijderd] 20 april 2005 08:06

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U.S. Treasury's Snow Says No Consensus on Gold
From Reuters Tuesday, April 19, 2005

IMF GOUD IS DUS BLIJKBAAR ALLANG EN BREED VERPATST OF GELEASED!

www.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNe...
duid=mtfh99067_2005-04-19_20-18-35_wat003013_newsml

WASHINGTON -- U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday dismissed
chances a proposal to sell International Monetary Fund gold stocks to help fund debt relief for the world's poorest countries could succeed.

"There's no consensus on this among the G7 or the board of the IMF," Snow said in answer to lawmaker questions before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, where he was testifying on the state of the global financial system.

"I think that if you did a vote now -- I haven't ever taken a vote
count -- you'd have as many or more against than in favor of the
gold sales," he said. "The U.S. position is clear on that. It is
inadvisable and not a course of action we could support."

The Treasury chief added: "I don't see how they will ever be successful."

[verwijderd] 24 april 2005 10:01

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Gold investment advisers get to work a big new market
From Xinhua News Agency
via People's Daily, Beijing
Friday, April 22, 2005

english.people.com.cn/200504/22/eng20...

Providing professional advice about investment in gold is set to be
approved as another new profession in China, a country with deeply
rooted tradition of gold worship.

The China Gold Association (CGA) announced recently in Shanghai that
the vocation of gold investment analyst had passed examination of
the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and will become an
authorized job shortly.

According to CGA Deputy Secretary-General Zhang Yongtao, his
organization will draft relevant professional criteria and set forth
certification specifics.

By the end of 2004, there were more 1,200 gold mines employing some
400,000 people and more than 300 large and middle-sized gold
processing enterprises hiring more than 200,000 workers in China.
About 700,000 people are working in approximately 10,000 gold
ornaments shops across the country, constituting another footnote
for the rapid growth of the industry.

Gold-related industries have been undergoing strong growth in recent
years as a result of China's accession into the World Trade
Organization (WTO), a move to open the Shanghai Gold Exchanged to
public trading, and domestic commercial banks' hiking interest in
launching gold-related businesses.

Hou Huimin, vice president of CGA, predicted that gold-related
industries will become a vital job generator since there are few
investment options open to the general public in China.

[verwijderd] 26 april 2005 00:44

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Why not just give the IMF's gold to the overindebted poor countries?

Maybe because the gold is already gone and the whole shtick would
end up electrifying the gold market instead of demoralizing it?

* * *
Britain's Brown Says IMF Gold Sales Still Being Discussed

From Reuters Monday, April 25, 2005

www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jh...
type=bondsNews&storyID=8286009§ion=investing

WASHINGTON -- British finance minister Gordon Brown said on Monday
that selling International Monetary Fund gold to fund debt relief for
poor countries was still "very much on the British agenda" despite
U.S. opposition.

Brown said Group of Seven rich countries were "virtually there" on a
deal to cancel World Bank and African Development Bank portions of
debt owed by poor countries, but were studying a report by IMF chief
Rodrigo Rato on possible IMF gold sales.

"There is a great deal of work to be done in discussions with other
countries, and Britain is still putting forward its proposals for a
resolution of this issue," Brown told a conference call after
receiving the 2005 Commitment to Development Award from the
Washington-based Center for Global Development and Foreign Policy
Magazine.

[verwijderd] 29 april 2005 08:19

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Don't look now but we're actually winning
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold Fields Mineral Service today announced publication
of its 2005 gold survey and predicted that a gold price of
$500 "no longer looks fanciful." You can find the GFMS
press release here:

www.gfms.co.uk/Press%20Releases/GS05_...

Since GFMS long has been the disinformation agent of
the central banks and bullion banks, its survey can mean
two things: Either those banks are about to smash the
gold price down below $400 or central bank gold is
running out and when it does the price of gold will be
above $1,000. Or maybe the GFMS survey means BOTH those
things -- the smashdown first, of course, to shake the
most people out of their gold holdings before gold
becomes more fairly valued.

It's hard to imagine that GATA's supporters could be
more disheartened than they are right now on account
of the collapse of the gold and silver mining shares --
a fall of more than 25 percent since December, as
measured by the HUI index of unhedged miners, even
though gold itself is down only about 4 percent since
then. (Hey, we wanted leverage and we sure got it,
didn't we?) But taking the "long" view -- as in going
back all of a year -- discloses that gold is up almost
12 percent.

GATA is a free-market and transparent-market advocacy
organization, not an investment advice organization.
But GATA's officers and consultants are gold and
silver investors too and so we hurt doubly when our
supporters, themselves investors in the precious
metals, are hurting. We more than sympathize with them,
and providing more than sympathy requires reminding
them that the greatest determinant of the gold price
(and probably the silver price too) remains for the
time being the rate of dishoarding of central bank reserves.

That is, it is mostly a matter of how much metal the
central banks are willing to lose and how quickly they
are willing to lose it in order to prop up their
national currencies and bonds. We have made some
pretty good calculations about how much the banks
have lost and how much they have left, but we don't
KNOW their exact plans. Indeed, the disposition of
central bank gold reserves and the plans for
mobilizing them are official secrets more sensitive
than the plans of design of nuclear weapons.

The central banks WILL run out of gold they are
willing to lose, almost surely sooner than most
conventional observers of the gold market think, and
many of us may reasonably hope to live to see the
day. But anyone who picks up a gold or silver coin
and resolves to keep it as a store of value or to
use it in ordinary commerce, recognizing what it
represents -- honest and enduring measures, fair
play, limited government, the primacy of the
individual -- must also recognize that, in doing
so, he is challenging all the money and power and
in the world. And anyone doing that will find that
some days are simply going to hurt.

So let's stop the whining or at least keep it to
ourselves. Besides, we ARE making progress. The
widening manipulation of the gold, equity, and
bond markets is being noticed and remarked upon
even in some mainstream publications. Just this
week the Gold Market newsletter in Germany,
edited by Martin Siegel of Siegal Investments in
Bad Salzuflen, published a long article about
GATA's work. It cited the Blanchard & Co. lawsuit
against J.P. MorganChase and Barrick Gold, as well
as the International Monetary Fund's instructing
central banks to count leased gold as gold safe
in the vault. (Thanks so much to Dietmar Siebholz
and his colleagues in the Konstanzer Kreis -- the
Group of Constanze -- for their making GATA known
in Germany. It was their effort that got us into
the Gold Market newsletter there.)

The lesson of history is that the bad guys are
brought down by their overreaching and that they
ALWAYS overreach. They are overreaching now, and
any multi-year chart of the gold price shows that,
bad as we may feel tonight, we are actually winning.

Indeed, the chart suggests that if you can't handle
the volatility of the mining shares you should be
holding the metal itself. No losers there.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[verwijderd] 4 mei 2005 09:09

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Gold and gold shares are diverging. Why?
By Peter Brimelow CBSMarketWatch.com Monday, May 2, 2005 NEW YORK

Last week was grim for gold shares -- but not bad for gold itself.Both the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) and the usually more sensitive AMEX gold bugs index (HUI) lost 6 percent. Bullion actually rose $1.80.

What does this disparity mean?

One thing it means is gloom and fear in goldbug land. As James Turk
notes in his current Freemarket Gold and Money Report:

"The XAU Index of major gold mining stocks broke its 4-year uptrend
line. ... Think about where gold is at the moment. It's only $21
(less than 5 percent) from a new 17-year high. Everyone should be
shouting from the rooftops, but instead, gloom prevails. ... The
bull has done a very good job of emptying the train."

The poor performance of the gold shares was egged on by rotten results last week from the major mining companies, particularly Newmont and Placer Dome.

Alert observers have also noted the failure of the big miners
generally to reduce their disastrous hedge books last quarter.

This raises the possibility that these may be more intractable ("toxic") than generally realized -- a.k.a. they pose financial risk.

The gold share situation now reminds me of the literature that arose
in the late 1970s, evaluating the 1973-4 stock market crash.

All of us who lived though that miserable experience were well aware
things were bad. As a new Stanford MBA, I had no money at risk. But
I did note virtually all my peers lost their Wall Street jobs.

Still, exactly how bad took a little time to sink in.

The point was that while the 1929-34 crash took place against a background of almost a 50 percent decline in the wholesale price level. So the "real" losses in the stock market were not anywhere as near as nominal numbers suggested.

But the early 1970s decline was accompanied by serious inflation. In
real terms, the losses stood comparison with those the old timers
kept boasting about.

What has happened recently in gold shares is a microcosm of this.
Gold is up 8 percent since the November 2004 peak in the HUI -- yet
the index is 30 percent lower.

Reading the company results, the reasons are obvious: explosions in oil and steel costs, and a surge in commodity currencies, indirectly a comment on the curious way gold has lagged overall price changes recently.

In other words, gold shares may have detached from their normal tracking of the gold price for legitimate, if unpleasant, reasons of their own.

Some feel this has gone too far. James Turk has a chart showing that
the Gold/XAU ratio has only been lower -- slightly -- in the last
couple of desperate bear markets.

Taking the view that extreme unhealthiness in the gold mining
industry signifies a bottom, Turk thinks this could be encouraging.

Others might prefer to follow the Gartman Letter's example and
shelter in the new Bullion ETFs, GLD or IAV.

[verwijderd] 10 mei 2005 23:39

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SILVER SENTIMENT CHANGING

May 10, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com

by staff reports

With silver stagnating around $7 this year, it would appear that not very much is going on. Sentiment has been falling and many investors have been questioning whether silver is still in a bull market. The net long positions of small speculators have fallen below 20,000. Yet even as the majority of silver miners have collapsed in price, lease rates have recently spiked to one-year highs of 1.6%. Typically, a spike in lease rates indicates strong physical demand.
In addition, the COT structure has drastically changed. Commercial players, who are almost always right in their positions, have been historically short silver futures contracts. Yet the May 3rd COT data reveals that commercial players covered 14,904 contracts, and increased their long positions by 5,301. With only 42,693 contracts net short, commercials are near last June’s low, which preceded a large rally in the metal. However, there are several differences from last years COT levels. The price of the silver hasn’t fallen very far in comparison to previous drops showing strong support, and open interest is hovering above 100,000 contracts – significantly more than last years levels around 80,000 contracts.

Could the commercials be trying to cover their positions and go net long silver? Prior to the large rally in crude oil last year, commercials shifted their position from net short to net long in a similar pattern to what silver is seeing today. Whether commercials succeed or not, their attempt to cover and buy more contracts could be perceievd as a highly bullish signal.

-Chris Mack is FMNN’s media and technology correspondent

[verwijderd] 11 mei 2005 20:45

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BUT WHAT IF TED BUTLER IS RIGHT ABOUT SILVER?

May 11, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com

by staff reports

Few analysts have been more persistent in calling for a massive increase in the price of silver than Ted Butler, a former commodities analyst who writes weekly columns for Investment Rarities - a marketer of silver coins and bullion and exponent of free-market "Austrian" economics. Citing many factors that make silver “an investment situation never before witnessed,” Butler has analyzed the situation from just about every conceivable angle.
Though silver has more than doubled in price since its bear market lows after 2000, and maintained much of its gain since, prices have ground lower during the past year, causing many investors to debate the wisdom of taking a position, or even leading them to throw in the towel and abandon the metals’ markets altogether.

But the nature of bull markets is that they befuddle and surprise the majority of both pundits and participants. Who, during the 1970s - watching the Dow attempting over many years to penetrate and stay above the 1000 level - would have ever believed that the market would one day catapault to 11,722. And this, especially after a one-day 500-point-plus decline in 1987.

It may be that, as economist John Maynard Keynes supposedly remarked, “in the long-run we are all dead.” If before then, if the price of silver does move higher quickly, the lucky few who took the minority view and held to the advice of analysts like David Morgan, Jim Puplava, the late Jerome Smith and a few others will deserve their "good fortune."

-David H. Smith is FMNN’s newsbriefs coordinator

[verwijderd] 13 mei 2005 07:42

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Silver bugs believe that, like gold, silver is money. They also believe that the silver price is going to vastly outperform the gold price because of silver's supply shortage. But silver is not money; it's a commodity whose price is far more dependent on industrial demand than on anything else. However, because the silver market is so small, it is entirely possible for silver investors to create their own self-fulfilling prophecy. You need to be nimble, and remember to sell, to take advantage of such an increase in the silver price.

Annual mine production of gold is about 80 million ounces while annual mine production of silver is roughly 600 million ounces, yet gold mining revenues are eight times more than revenues from silver mining at current metal prices.

Why is gold expensive and silver less so? Because gold is money and silver is primarily an industrial commodity. Even though silver has, from time to time, been used as money, its chemical and physical properties make it less desirable than gold as a monetary asset. Among other things, silver oxidizes readily, and it is far more abundant than gold.

Annual fabrication demand for silver is well in excess of eight hundred million ounces a year, of which roughly forty percent is used for industrial applications, just over twenty percent for photography, thirty percent for jewelry, and the rest (less than five percent) for coins and medals.

Because annual fabrication demand exceeds annual mine supply, silver investors believe much higher prices are in store. However, since industrial applications and photography account for roughly two thirds of annual silver consumption, fabrication demand plays a key role in the silver market. The silver price is thus very dependent on changes in annual fabrication demand. As a result, continued economic growth in North America and the rest of the world should help the silver price remain strong and perhaps move up, whereas an economic downturn could be quite detrimental to the silver price.

If we look at gold and silver in US dollars, then the relative strength in the dollar since the early Nineties should have had the same effect on both metals if they were priced as money, and their charts should look the same. But they don't.

Silver actually performed much better than gold during the Nineties because demand for silver supported its price during the high-tech boom in the latter part of the decade. When the tech boom went bust, silver suffered, and its price barely budged from 2001 to 2003 while the gold price rallied strongly. Since 2003, gold and silver prices have moved more or less in tandem, and that is a result of the weakening US dollar. However, if we see a change in the economic climate, the correlation between the two metals' prices can easily break down again.

The amount of silver typically used in any given application usually represents a very small component of the overall manufacturing cost. Therefore the demand for silver from both industrial applications and photography is very inelastic, meaning that if silver's price increases, demand does not decrease.

At the same time, because the silver market is such a small market in dollar terms, a relatively small amount of investment demand can cause the price to spike dramatically. And because fabrication demand is inelastic, fabrication demand will not decline due to the price increase.

So speculators buying silver in anticipation of a move upwards can easily create a self-fulfilling prophecy, causing the silver price to soar. But when they want to sell their metal to take profits, the same lack of liquidity that drove the price up will drive it right back down again.

This combination of a small illiquid market, inelastic demand and feverishly bullish investors could cause the silver price to outperform the gold price at some point. However, you must be wary of an ensuing collapse and remember to sell. Silver's day in the sun might be very short-lived.

Still, there is no guarantee that the silver market will enjoy the benefit of such a self-fulfilling prophecy. Judging by the silver price since 1990 in relation to what we know was going on in the world, it is entirely possible that silver will suffer along with other base metals and commodities during an economic downturn.

As a side note, there will not be a commentary next week. I will be in Reno for the Geological Society of Nevada symposium and then in New York to speak at the Institutional Gold Conference (see www.paulvaneeden.com for details). Hope to see you there.

Paul van Eeden

smith&jones 17 mei 2005 13:12

smith&jones

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I have just been wondering if it would be possible to establish some basic number that represents a shortage or abundance in gold. Assuming gold represents a basic economic value, there should at least be some sort of correlation.

Wouldn't it be interesting to compare the total amount of gold available ( that is: mined and processed ) to the world population, through the entire known history.
Was there more gold available per living person when the pyramids were built? Do we see a steady increase per person through the ages? Or is there very much less or very much more gold available per person nowadays?

S&J.

[verwijderd] 19 mei 2005 23:38

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Adviser Soapbox: Gold Stock Resurrection By Jack Adamo
Forbes Magazine Online Thursday, May 19, 2005
www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/...
ox_inl.html?partner=yahootix&referrer=

Since backing down from the $460 level late last year and closing
lately in the $420 range, gold prices are making gold investors
nervous. Under pressure are the miners.

Taking a look at a chart of gold bellwether Newmont Mining, you'll
notice a high in December, and a series of declining tops falling
sharply through May. In addition, the daily price has fallen below
the 50-day moving average and the 50-day has just broken below the
200-day. Market technicians will tell you that's a bad sign. The
bullion chart looks no better.

But wait a minute. That's last year's chart! Gee, it looks just like
the current one. Maybe a look at what has happened since last year's
plunge will give us a hint about what lies ahead.

Seven months after the depths of the 2004 drop, the price of bullion
soared from $375 per ounce to a new multi-decade high of $460. It has
since pulled back to $419, but that's still firmly above last year's
low, keeping the gold bull market intact.

During the third quarter of last year, when it became clear that the dollar had nowhere to go but down, every hedge fund this side of the Cayman Islands got on the same side of the trade; they were short on the dollar and long gold. That drove the price of gold up too far,too fast. Whenever you have a situation like that, there has to be a correction. Despite the roller coaster ride, gold is 12% higher than this time last year.

With gold, there's always a battle between professional and
commercial traders whose business interests are affected by the price
of gold. The real Insiders are the commercials. They control gold
flow. They feed the fire in rallies, selling into the updraft; then
they short-sell the metal when prices are high. By doing this they
lock in profits and panic the outsiders. When enough suckers are
scared out of the market, the commercials start building their
positions again at lower prices. That's what I see happening now.

The Insider indicators I watch to judge the short-term trend of gold are now moving back in the right direction. Following them has been very lucrative in recent years. Hence, I'm recommending selected gold shares again.

But my fondness for gold isn't based on only short-term indicators.

Even though the Federal Reserve Board has been gradually raising
interest rates, it has, at the same time, been goosing the money
supply, negating the effect. In the decade prior to 2000, money
supply growth (M-3) had approximately equaled gross domestic product
growth. Since 2000, the growth rate of M-3 has been double the rate
of GDP growth. Cheap money means expensive gold sooner or later. I
don't see the Fed tightening M-3. There is too much governmental and
private debt out there to try to pay off with tight money.

Incidentally, when China finally widens the band in which it allows
the yuan to trade against the greenback, gold should have a nice pop.
That should come this year.

Some of the gold stocks have done a round trip this year. High energy
costs hurt most, and the weak dollar drove up expenses for U.S.
miners operating overseas. Conversely, South African miners were hurt
by revenue in weaker currencies being translated back into the strong
rand. The companies that are doing best are American- and Canadian-
based firms whose operations are mostly in the Americas.

Meridian Gold is my favorite gold stock. Important new finds in Chile
are assaying high grades of gold and silver. Moreover, Meridian
finished closing its hedge positions in silver this quarter and
should be getting the full benefit of the increase in silver prices.
In the past, Meridian had hedged its silver output at below-market
prices. The company also has new projects coming on line in Nevada,
Mexico and Nicaragua. The stalled, but the very promising Esquel
project in Argentina is like a free long-term warrant. If environmental obstacles are overcome, the stock should take a nice jump.

Other promising stocks in the group are Goldcorp, Barrick Gold, Royal
Gold, and to a lesser extent, Glamis Gold. Although I own both AngloGold Ashanti and Newmont Mining, I think they'll rise less rapidly than the others mentioned due to currency and operational problems, respectively. Speculative asset plays like Randgold and DRD Gold are too risky for most investors, but I do own some Randgold for the long term.

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2005 08:20

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PICTURE THAT! Digital photos might not sink silver
By Jim Hawe Barron's May 9, 2005

Ever since Sony unveiled its Mavica digital camera in 1981, the
prevailing opinion has been that the silver market would fall on
hard times as consumers ditch their clunky old film cameras for the
exciting new world of digital photography.

But according to recent market studies, a very different picture is
developing for silver, one in which traditional and digital
photography will likely coexist for years to come, with digital both
hurting and contributing to silver demand.

According to a J.P. Morgan report, the photo industry gobbled up
6,428 metric tons of silver in 2002, but demand from this sector is
expected to come to only 5,492 metric tons in 2005 as the digital-
camera boom takes its toll.

Ted Butler, Florida-based independent silver market analyst, avers
that the worst may be over for the metal. He argues that traditional
silver halide-based photography will be around for some time, as
costly digital applications fail to make big inroads in the high-
growth, heavily populated countries like India and China.

Keep in mind that digital-camera users typically use personal
computers, printers, battery packs, memory cards, and other accessories to produce photos. This can run to hundreds if not thousands of dollars, while a disposable will set you back only about $10.

Butler also believes that the markets for digital cameras in
developed countries could become quickly saturated. One sign:
According to Japan's Camera and Imaging Products Association,
Japanese digital-camera exports fell in February for the first time,
slipping 0.9 percent from a year earlier, to 3.29 million units.

A surprising development in the digital boom is the fact that many
shutterbugs are taking their prized digital snapshots to processing
shops to have them reproduced on glossy, high-quality photograph
paper, which is loaded with silver.

Digital images printed on plain paper tend to fade and can become
easily damaged by moisture. A lot of people are not willing to take
these risks with their wedding photos or pictures of the new baby.

Photofinishing News, a market research and publishing group, just
completed an extensive report projecting photographic demand for
silver through 2010. While this group expects a gradual slide in the
number of prints from film cameras, it expects this drop to be
offset by a rise in prints of digitally captured images.

While the drop in the number of film rolls being used cuts into
silver demand, it also takes a chunk out of supply, as less silver
is being recycled from these rolls. "The key point to bear in mind
is that photography is a double-edged sword and structural changes
affect both demand and supply," says the J.P. Morgan report. "This
originates in a large portion of traditional film supply being
sourced from recycling and recent trends indicate that while demand
from the photography sector has declined, scrap supply from recycled
film and flakes has declined simultaneously."

Butler believes that this idea of digital photography dooming silver
has shifted the focus away from the many compelling reasons why
investors might want to add a silver lining to their portfolios.

"There is the continuing market deficit, which is the most bullish
condition possible for any commodity," he said, adding that silver
has the largest short position among speculators of any item in the
history in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly
commitment of traders report. Those bears eventually will have to
buy the silver contracts they sold.

The average spot silver price jumped from $4.80 an ounce in 2003 to
$6.90 an ounce in 2004, roughly the same time the digital-camera
market was exploding. "That's the craziest thing," Butler says.

J.P. Morgan forecasts an average silver price of $7.10 an ounce in 2005, noting that "the price rally which started in 2003 was a justified price correction that more accurately reflects silver's fundamental market balance." July Comex silver settled Friday at $6.96 an ounce.

The present risk/reward scenario "looks great," Butler asserts. "It's hard for me to see how someone can be hurt with silver right here and how very good things can happen to someone with a long-term perspective," he says, adding that any big move under $7 should be seen as a good time to "load the boat."

That could make for a nice picture.

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2005 00:46

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a

[verwijderd] 26 mei 2005 11:15

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[verwijderd] 26 mei 2005 16:08

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GFMS and Silver Institute feel positive for now Rhona O'Connell
'25-MAY-05 12:42'

LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- Investors have been driving silver prices for well over a year. And supply/demand fundamentals have provided basic support. But will the situation last for more than another year?

According to the 2005 Silver Institute Silver Survey, prepared by the independent consultancy GFMS, changes in silver’s supply / demand balance have provided a foundation for prices that are higher than those prevailing before 2004.

Nevertheless, the Silver Institute and GFMS say, the absolute levels reached over the last eighteen months or so, during which time a high of $8.29/ounce was registered on a London fixing basis, are partly due to temporary factors and may not be sustainable in the long run.

The investor community drove silver prices to levels higher than would have normally been achieved solely as a result of the changes in fundamentals discussed below and it has been investment demand for silver that has been the dominant factor behind silver’s advance since 2003. While this element of the market is expected to be supportive of high silver prices over the next year as a minimum, the longer-term contribution is perhaps questionable. While GFMS does not openly quantify the assessed impact of the speculative community (notably hedge funds and commodity trading advisors) on the price, there is an implication that without this community, prices would not be where they are now.

Looking backwards, the essential fundamental figures from the Survey show that both supply and demand contracted during 2004 against 2003 levels, but not by much. Mine production was just over 634 million ounces, there was a reduction in net government sales and old silver scrap to just over 240 million ounces and a small degree of producer hedging. Overall supplies were thus very fractionally lower than in 2003. Set against this was a very healthy increase in industrial applications and coins and medals, while photography continues to fall and high prices prompted a sharp contraction in the price-elastic consuming region that is India.

With overall fabrication therefore also falling against 2003 and coming in just short of total supplies, the residual factor in 2004 was a small degree of implied net investment, equivalent to between 4.5% and 5% of overall fabrication demand. This may seem paradoxical in the light of the investment comments above, but it is important to remember that shifts within the investment/speculative community as an independent entity can have a dramatic impact on price, if only as a function of the enthusiasm or aggression of one investor against that of another.

Looking forward, supportive developments for the medium term outlook came both from the supply and demand side. While there was a contraction in demand in India due to record prices, and despite the secular decline in photographic uses, the underlying trend in fabrication appears to be positive and for the medium term this outweighs the overall 2% contraction in fabrication last year, which was driven by India’s price–sensitive action. There is scope for some recovery in Indian jewellery and silver demand from the very low levels recorded in 2004.

On the supply side, the outlook for non-mine supply is potentially also supportive for the price, although the outlook for mine supply works in the opposite direction.

The reduction in photographic demand is generating an independent reduction in scrap supply and, in a separate sector, government sales fell last year as the flow from China was reduced. GFMS postulates that this could well herald a period of reduced pressure on the price from government sales despite sporadic injections from the countries such as Russia (as last year) or the India disposal programme that has been a factor since early 2005.

Global mine production rose by 3.8% in 2004 634.4 million ounces or 19,730 tonnes last year and is expected to increase “further and faster” from next year onwards. GFMS makes the point, however, that growth in mine production is unlikely to have much of an influence on the price outlook, except as a result of the expectations of investors and speculators.

It is the investor community that holds the key for the short term, and the survey takes the view that the reasons behind the surge of investor interest in the metal will continue to apply for at least the next 12 months or so. The first reason for this lies in the likelihood that commodities will continue to benefit from investor interest as an asset class; even though there could well be some short-term set-backs to commodity prices on the back of a slowing in economic growth (especially if China finally starts a sustained slowdown), the trend growth in the commitment of investor dollars to commodities is set to continue.

Secondly GFMS takes the view that silver is more likely to be driven by developments in gold than in the base metal sector and GFMS is looking for higher gold prices over the next year. Third, silver’s upward price trend and volatility is expected to continue to attract speculative interest in both the Over the Counter and futures markets, both from funds and high net worth investors. Silver is seen by some as a leveraged proxy for gold, lacking as it does gold’s safe-haven qualities [although it therefore tends to attract a higher proportion of speculator as opposed to investor than does gold].

The survey concludes that the underlying improvement in the supply/demand fundamentals is having a positive impact on market sentiment and behaviour and that this will continue to provide support on dips and will encourage longs to maintain their core positions.

[verwijderd] 29 mei 2005 10:20

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USAGold Greenspan's exchanges with Ron Paul
USAGold compiles Fed Chairman Greenspan's exchanges with Rep. Ron Paul

1:46a ET Sunday, May 29, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold has compiled and posted all the exchanges
between Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, a member of the House
Financial Services Committee, during Greenspan's
appearances before the committee from 1997 through
2004.

These exchanges include much interesting comment about
gold and the international monetary system but,
unfortunately, somehow Paul seems never to get around
to asking Greenspan whether the U.S. government or
foreign central banks intervene directly or
surreptitiously through intermediaries in the gold
market to control the gold price. Such questioning
does seem to be prohibited whenever the Fed chairman
and the secretary of the treasury and similar figures
present themselves officially. It seems to be
considered a matter of national security.

You can find USAGold's Greenspan-Paul archive here:

www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/greensp...

[verwijderd] 30 mei 2005 09:09

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Abandoned Gold Standard Guarantees Inflation by Bill Haynes

In recent weeks, as prices have surged higher, "revived" inflation has become the topic du jour among establishment writers. Unfortunately, these writers point to the usual suspects, i.e. higher energy costs, higher interest rates, etc. In fact, the cause of inflation is the United States’ abandonment of the gold standard.

The United States’ abandonment of gold as the foundation of its monetary system came in two steps. In 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt ended Americans’ right to surrender paper dollars for gold and even to own gold bullion. Step two came in 1971 when President Richard Nixon "closed the gold window" and denied foreign governments the right to turn in paper dollars for gold.

Roosevelt’s move was a major step in shifting the world from the gold standard to the gold exchange standard. Under the gold standard, governments fixed the prices of their currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold and stood ready to convert their currencies into gold at the fixed prices.

Under the gold exchange standard, governments could hold U.S. dollars and British sterling as reserves because those currencies were "exchangeable for gold." The move to the gold exchange standard became official with the adoption of the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. When Nixon closed the gold window, those nations counting paper dollars as reserves found themselves holding paper instead of gold.

Although in 1974 President Gerald Ford signed legislation that permitted Americans again to own gold bullion, that legislation did not put the United States back on the gold standard.

Under the gold standard, a government is limited – both legally and practically – as to how much paper money it can print. As recently as the Lyndon Johnson administration, the U.S. could print paper dollars equal only to four times the value of the nation’s gold reserves.

Under the gold standard, governments that print too much paper money risk runs on their gold reserves. Runs occur as holders of the paper seek to convert to gold before the vaults are empty. A run on the dollar is what happened in the late 1960s, which culminated in President Richard Nixon closing the gold window in 1971.

"Closing the gold window" is a euphemism for the U.S. defaulting on its promise to other countries to redeem dollars for gold. As an alternative, Nixon could have devalued the dollar and continued to redeem. In effect, he chose a one hundred percent devaluation, a de facto default on the promise to redeem.

In the 34 years before Nixon closed the gold window, the money supply in the U.S. grew less than two fold. In the 34 years after Nixon’s action, the money supply expanded 13 fold. The Fed’s massive inflation of the 1990s resulted in the greatest advance in stock market history. Continued inflation is now pushing housing prices to record levels. Automobiles now cost more than houses did only thirty years ago.

Despite establishment assertions that the dollar is "sound," investors should prepare for further declines in the value of the dollar and plan their investments accordingly. History shows that no government, after going on a fiat monetary system, ever reverses course until its paper currency is destroyed. There is no reason to believe this time will be any different.

May 28, 2005

Bill Haynes [send him mail] has been a precious metals dealer since 1973. His website can be seen at www.cmi-gold-silver.com.

[verwijderd] 5 juni 2005 12:13

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Believing (and Believing and Believing) in Bullion By Stephen Metcalf
The New York Times Magazine Sunday, June 5, 2005

www.nytimes.com/2005/06/05/magazine/0...

On a recent early spring morning, I made my way down to the appropriately poker-faced and austere building that houses the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In its sub-basement, 80 feet below street level, there is a vault that rests on the granite bedrock of Manhattan. "No man-made floor could hold the weight of all this," Peter Bakstansky, a Fed spokesman, assured me. The vault holds 7,000 tons of gold. This represents the world's largest stash of the precious metal, and it is worth about $100 billion. To view it, you descend to an underground bunker and pass
through a narrow passageway cut into a 90-ton steel cylinder. Like most people, I'd seen gold before, though only in small quantities -- a filling here, a vanity wristwatch there.In front of me now, stacked in bricks atop wooden pallets, lay some pretty serious bling.

Gold is a majestic condenser of wealth. A standard bar is seven inches long, three and five-eighths inches wide, and about one and three-quarters inches thick. It weighs 27.4 pounds, and at the current market price -- roughly $420 a troy ounce, the unit in which gold is measured -- is worth about $170,000. As miraculous as gold is in itself -- it is soft, dense, ductile, sectile, highly conductive, all but indestructible and, of course, very beautiful -- when you look at any quantity of it, you immediately exchange it in your head for something else. One bar, college education; 10 bars, Brooklyn town house. The cage in front of me appeared fairly small. Filled to the ceiling with gold bars as it was, it might well hold the financial health of a nation in the balance.

Most of the bullion at the New York Fed is kept -- in 122 separate lockers -- in custody for foreign countries. (Most American gold is in Fort Knox.) There is something ancient and strange about the vault, in which workers wear magnesium shoe covers to protect their toes from falling ingots. Egyptians were casting bars of gold thousands of years ago; but the thrust of human history has been away from hard money and toward virtual money, like paper bills, or even little electronic pulses shot off by the trillion across the ether. When I remarked that all this brute physical wealth represented an anachronism, Bakstansky seized upon the word brightly.

"Yes, exactly. Gold is an anachronism."

"And yet," I said, "all these nations, they hold on to
this anachronism, just in case...."

At this, a light chill entered his voice. "I don't think anyone in a policy-making position," he explained to me politely, "seriously believes that everything else of value could disappear, leaving only gold."

To a small but extremely avid subculture in the American financial community, gold doesn't mean bling, or King Midas, or them thar hills. Gold is money; and not just money, but the one true money. The gold subculture divides along several lines -- some of its members are gold speculators, some gold hoarders, some gold philosophers and some outright nut jobs -- but it unites behind a single idea: Paper money issued by governments, when not redeemable for actual gold, is fraudulent. Most of us accept the existence of dollar bills unconsciously. To the gold faithful, however, a dollar bill is "ink money," or better yet, "fiat currency," a nearly constant term of abuse at gold conferences and in gold chat rooms. "Fiat currency -- it's a floating abstraction," Doug Casey, a star speaker on the gold circuit, bellowed at me over the phone. "What's its worth? I don't know what it's worth! It's a figment of some government bureaucrat's imagination!"

The "gold bugs," as they often are referred to with more than a hint of disdain, find gold appealing because they believe it represents the one enduring form of nonstate money. "Money is far too important to be left in the hands of bankers, Congress or the Federal Reserve System," Gary
North, a legendary gold bug who has edited financial newsletters for decades, told me via e-mail. North's Web commentaries include everything from advice regarding prostate problems (saw palmetto has helped his immensely) to a recently completed 700-page "economic commentary" on
the Gospel of Luke, which he encourages readers to download onto their hard drives, in case he were to "drop dead and the site is taken down for any reason." But the focus of his writings is politics, and North's politics aren't hard to pin down. His is the fierce libertarianism of the ardent gold bug.

I had sought out Casey and North, two leading voices among gold enthusiasts, because after 20 years during which paper assets -- stocks, bonds, and the world's leading "fiat currency," the dollar -- soared, gold was making a comeback. If you bought $10,000 worth of gold in 1980, by 2001 you would have lost $6,800. But then the long bull market in stocks ended, and the dollar, responding to the growing debt burden of the average American, not to mention the federal debt and our trade deficit, began a steep decline. And so,starting in 2001, gold, which like many commodities moves in the opposite direction of the dollar, began to recover some of its lost glamour as a store of value. The price of gold broke through the $300 barrier in February 2002, then the $400 barrier at the end of 2003. Could this be the dawn of the apocalypse that the gold bugs, whose prevailing attitude might best be described as a wishful pessimism, have been predicting? Could the dollar collapse, leaving only gold?

"I will accept questions by e-mail," North wrote me, adding, "I will answer the following type question: 'In your article on [ ], you write that [ ]. But what about this? How could this work?'" I apparently phrased my first questions according to protocol, because North e-mailed me back, relaying his nine-point plan for returning gold to its proper status as the only money. Among his ideas: "Government collects tax payments in
gold. ... Abolish legal tender law. ... Let anyone set up a bank/warehouse company who wants to." Gold bugs are notoriously squirrelly, and North had warned me ahead of time: no questions regarding the future price of
gold, and all questions must hew closely to his published work.

Lees verder:
www.nytimes.com/2005/06/05/magazine/0...

[verwijderd] 7 juni 2005 09:39

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Gold price could triple
Publisher of Engineering News, Mining Weekly and Polity
Gold price could triple by 2015 as resources dwindle
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The price of gold is set to rocket, says Andisa gold analyst Dr David Davis.

His report, 'A trilogy of gold - an exploration in three parts', indicates that gold will reach $1 200 an ounce by the end of 2015.

His prediction is that in 2008 it will go to $700 an ounce, a year later it will climb to $750 an ounce and another $50 an ounce to reach $800 an ounce in 2010.

These predictions answer the question blazing through the industry currently: what will gold sell at and what will shares be worth in 10 to 15 years' time.

In arriving at the answer, Davis looks at the current gold price, historical trends in mining operations and historical supply and demand patterns in the 55-page report.

He argues that supply is falling behind demand and fewer reserves are being mined as resources diminish.

Not a new phenomenon, but previously this trend has been masked by Central bank sales and producer hedging - a dying practice.

When this ceases, says Davis, economies of the age-old supply/demand equation will take over and flame the price of the metal.

This, he argues, will mean investors having to be in the right place at the right time to make money.

Traditionally, gold has been a haven when currencies turned risky, having soared since 1971 when the gold standard was abolished.

Currently, the dollar weakness and euro strength underpin the gold price.

Volatility in the price ensues when there is political or supply uncertainty - causing speculation in the market.

“The correlation between the dollar:euro exchange rate and the gold price is statistically significant.

“The correlation means that a one-cent change in the dollar:euro exchange rate drives the gold price by $3,6/oz,” says the report.

Davis predicts that, given the US's deficit, could see the dollar:euro go to 1,4 by year-end.

Dollar weakness will continue through 2005, possibly compounded by the Chinese yuan's move away from a dollar peg.

Add to this inflation, and the dollar will remain weak yet will continue to underpin the gold price.

Dollar weakness is set to continue for the next ten years and supply/demand factors will, as Davis says, “trigger a quantum upward change in the gold price - enough to sustain a higher gold price, but now at a new gold price $ equilibrium”.

Davis moves on to analyse gold production since 1900 which, he says indicates three regular 30-year cycles and a fourth incomplete, cycle.

This current cycle is entering a downswing, and a production upswing will only occur when global production has dropped to about 1 500 t.

“The timing of this low point in the cycle is likely to be between 2010 and 2015.”

The peak of the last cycle has already been passed, in 2001, at 2 621 t.

Davis says that mine production over the next ten years is likely to decline significantly.

This is, in part, due to dwindling reserves, and new mines coming on stream will not offset the shortfall.

Global production, says Davis, will drop after 2006 to between 2 100 t and 1 790 t by 2010.

Hopes of more gold underground dashed

Andisa calculates 29 new mines are due to come on stream.

“If all 29 new mines are commissioned, global production will decline after a possible peak in 2006.

Dwindling reserves have prompted companies to merge - merely shuffling bases of gold from one to another.

In addition, exploration has moved away from the safe Archean terrain and now the possibility of finding sizable ore-bodies is shrinking- yet again driving price up.

Davis also points out that the reserve grade is falling off, and not being replaced in time.

“The average life-of-mine is on the decline because of shrinking reserves and flat production.

“The average life-of-mine in 1998 was 10 years; in 2003, it was 9,3 years.”

Costs that have decreased on the back of the dollar are likely to swing and turn upwards.

This will trigger higher prices, he says.

Davis turns to a hypothetical gold company to determine what the future holds for gold.

Production, he says, will decline and force price up as demand outstrips supply.

This decline will be aggravated by an increase in costs, forcing marginal mines to close.

The report then turns to supply and demand over the last 16 years.

“Only once in 16 consecutive years has primary gold demand exceeded primary supply.”

On average, the yearly deficit is around 395 t.

But no trend exists between the deficit and the gold price - a trend Davis has indicated will change.

What is the future of the gold price?

Davis reiterates that the dollar will continue to underpin the gold price, but the supply/demand factor will enter the picture and push prices up.

In addition, “between 2007 and 2010, supply and demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.

Costs will rise, forcing prices up again.---------------------------------

=Author: nicola mawson
Portfolio: Senior Online Writer
E-mail: newsdesk@engineeringnews.co.za

[verwijderd] 8 juni 2005 22:36

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GOLD RECONSIDERED by Doug Casey

A couple of weeks ago, with gold knocked as low as $416.10, resource investors were wondering just how low gold could go. Now, with gold rebounding over $420, such musings might turn to questions such as, "Can gold hold at these levels?" and "Does it still have what it takes to hit $500 by year-end?"

While I'll share my views on the topic, I tend not to be overly concerned about short-term price action, but rather concern myself with finding great companies, with good financial structures, using proven exploration techniques on multiple, highly prospective targets. In other words, companies that will make you rich on process under any reasonable gold price scenario. Price volatility, other than a dramatic meltdown the likes of which I don't expect, is, therefore, not unwelcome as such volatility allows me to (a) buy great companies on the cheap when prices dip and, (b) sell for a profit when prices move strongly to the positive. Simple but effective. Right now, I am very much an active buyer.

But back to the topic at hand. When gold briefly touched $416.10 on the heels of the euro's train wreck, a lot of people began to fret that it was on the way to its recent low of $379 gold, reached in May of last year. Yet, it is worth noting that gold has been over $400/oz., on average, for over a year now. And the 200-day average is over $$426.72. So gold over $400 is not some short-term spike, but a trend in motion.

It is also important to consider the historical context for current prices. Adjusting for inflation, $400 today is only about $175 in 1980 dollars, when gold hit its $850 peak. So, rather than being historically expensive, gold is still actually quite cheap and has a lot of room to move up before threatening previous highs.

But the most intriguing thing I'm keeping an eye on is the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold.

As everyone who invests in this sector is already aware, over the last couple of years, gold has largely traded in a converse pattern to the U.S. dollar, appreciating most when the dollar falls, and depreciating when it rebounds.

Over the long run, that works in gold's favor because the dollar's problems are legion and almost nothing will keep it from heading lower. Much lower. Of course, the government could stem the erosion by returning to the gold standard, thereby underpinning the currency with something more tangible than the operating speed of a printing press. But returning to the gold standard, which would require $5,000 an ounce gold, has almost no chance of happening in the foreseeable future. That pretty much clears the way for the dollar to depreciate more or less steadily to its intrinsic value... just shy of completely worthless.

Of course, in order for the dollar to slide, it must slide relative to something else. Until the recent setback to the euro, that currency was the "it's not the dollar" alternative of choice for FX traders around the world. Now that the EU constitution has correctly been relegated to the trash bin of history, uncertainty stalks those lands and the gilt has worn off that particular lily. The Italians are even considering abandoning the euro.

But I see a glimmer of hope for gold in all the European hand-wringing: after predictably taking it in the neck on the U.S. dollar's rebound against the euro, gold unpredictably staged a quite impressive rebound of its own. From the abyss of the technically important $417 level, gold moved quite briskly up to where it sits today, around $425. While we need to see a lot more of the same before getting overly excited, it is encouraging that gold has moved up even on days when the U.S. dollar moved little, or even moved up... signaling what may be the baby steps for a decoupling of gold from the U.S. dollar.

One plausible explanation for the decoupling is that, since 9/11, global investors in general, and those from the Middle East in particular, have been moving money out of U.S. dollars and into the euro - both as a way of diversifying away from the weakening dollar, but also to reduce the odds of outright confiscation by a U.S. government striking out like a mad ape at real and imaginary terrorists everywhere. Put another way, if you were a wealthy Syrian or Jordanian - or a citizen of just about any Middle-Eastern potentate - how much of your money would you have in U.S. dollars? Especially considering that the U.S. Treasury claims to exercise control over all financial instruments denominated in U.S. dollars, regardless of which bank, or which country, they are deposited in?

When the euro began to look shaky - and what's next for it is still anyone's guess - I suspect a lot of holders decided to cash out and move on down the road. But to where? Some percentage of that money has found, and will continue to find its way into gold... a trickle that will turn into a stream and then a river once the U.S. dollar starts again on its inevitable descent.

In support of that contention, it's worth noting that Saudi Arabian gold consumption grew by 10 percent to 37.3 tons in the first three months of 2005 when compared with the same period a year earlier.

All of which is to say that I see nothing standing in the way of gold finding a wider audience - both individually and institutionally - over the coming year. And I can name a lot more reasons for the U.S. dollar to continue its slide, in earnest, before year-end, than I can for it to continue defying gravity. So I would rate the likelihood of gold holding above $400 as extremely good, and of it crossing the $500 mark by year-end as imminently doable.

But what about central bank interference? If you believe the people at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (www.gata.org), desperate governments and their central bankers will do whatever it takes to keep gold out of contention as a viable currency alternative...which is to say, to keep gold prices low. Whether that amounts to a conspiracy, or central banks simply selling when prices are high, as would any other investor who bought low, the question boils down to: how much gold can the central banks actually dump on the market?

Many bullion banks report large gold holdings, but many also extend credit based on those holdings, and few admit outside auditors. With all the shell games, it's hard to say how much unencumbered gold they actually own. But even if they do own market-disrupting quantities, many are restricted in various ways as to what they can do with that gold. Jim Turk's recent comments on the prospect of IMF gold sales suggest it is easier said than done. The IMF is reported to have a hoard equivalent to 15 months of gold production for the entire world. Selling that much gold in a short - or even not so short - period of time would obviously have a profound impact on the price of gold. But the IMF needs approval from 85% of its subscription base, of which the U.S. represents about 17%, and Congress balked the last time this came up. And central banks and government repositories are subject to innumerable legalities regarding disposition of their gold; outside of totalitarian regimes, any major changes there are likely to be seen well in advance by the public.

That being said, central bank action - even apart from bullion sales - can certainly impact the price of gold. Take for instance the late February, 2005 announcement by the Bank of Korea that it was diversifying it

[verwijderd] 10 juni 2005 08:52

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Newmont's Lassonde sees gold at $525 by year-end
From Reuters Thursday, June 9, 2005

www.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNe...
duid=mtfh72369_2005-06-09_17-24-25_n09664886_newsml

NEW YORK -- The price of gold should rise to $525 an ounce by the
start of 2006, a top executive of gold giant Newmont Mining Corp.
said on Thursday.

Pierre Lassonde, president of the world's largest gold mining
company, cited an expected decline in the U.S. dollar by another 15
percent against a basket of currencies, world economic growth strong
enough to keep physical demand buoyant, and a continuing gradual
decline in gold output.

Speaking at the Reuters Mining Summit, Lassonde said consumer and
investor demand for gold is tenacious at current prices and world
production is in a decline, which should hoist gold out of a
current "$400 to $475 range."

"When you add it up, we think you can see gold at $525 by Jan '06,"
he said to reporters at Reuters offices in New York.

"The physical market is very strong at these prices. There is
enormous demand," Lassonde said.

Investors are buying gold as well, in favor over the euro and the
dollar, he added, with bullion making its way into vaults in
Switzerland and heading into the Middle East, India, China and Turkey.

"Those are the big markets right now," said Lassonde.

Newmont expects gold production to fall by 0.5 to 1 percent this year and next, while the company's own output growth, as the leading worldwide producer, should be 4 to 5 percent over next three years, the executive said.

Spot gold changed hands at about $424 an ounce at midday Thursday,
down 4 percent since the start of the year.

A dip below $425 in the last month was primarily due to slowing
demand for jewelry from India after the busy March-to-May wedding
season and decreased buying by Italian jewelers before summer
holidays begin in July, he said.

Still, the market has recovered from repeated attempts to press it
below $415 because of solid demand, said Lassonde.

Bullion hit a 16-year high of $456.75 last December on the back of a
falling dollar, which tends to make the U.S. currency-priced metal
cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

"We believe that the dollar trade-weighted index has another leg down
to go, another 15 percent, mostly against the Asian currencies. We
think we're going to see a great deal of that happening in the next
nine months.

"If we see a revaluation of the (Chinese yuan), I would think gold
sales would increase even more substantially" throughout Asia,
Lassonde said.

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Ablynx	43	13.356
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ageas	5.844	109.897
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AMG	971	134.099
AMS	3	73
Amsterdam Commodities	305	6.740
AMT Holding	199	7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp	2	491
Antonov	22.632	153.605
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Ascencio	1	28
ASIT biotech	2	697
ASMI	4.108	39.564
ASML	1.766	109.546
ASR Nederland	21	4.505
ATAI Life Sciences	1	7
Atenor Group	1	522
Athlon Group	121	176
Atrium European Real Estate	2	199
Auplata	1	55
Avantium	32	13.733
Axsome Therapeutics	1	177
Azelis Group	1	66
Azerion	7	3.438

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