Forum: Edelmetalen » Goud en zilver Rockin & Rollin

[verwijderd] 18 november 2004 18:09

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Gold ETF blows through 2.3 mln share IPO

By John Spence, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:55 AM ET Nov. 18, 2004

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- In an hour and a half of trading on its first day, StreetTracks Gold Shares (GLD: news, chart, profile) traded over 2.7 million shares, more than its scheduled initial public offering.

After a long wait and much anticipation, the first exchange-traded fund that invests directly in gold bullion began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.

"This one is going to go gangbusters," said Jim Wiandt, editor of IndexUniverse.com.

"It opens up a new asset class to investors," he added. "And arguably, this could completely tilt the gold market and have macro-economic consequences."

The World Gold Council is the fund's sponsor and Boston-based State Street is the marketing agent.

Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion, and shares should be priced at about 10 percent of the price of a troy ounce of gold.

Earlier this week gold reached a 16-year high and some observers are calling for it to hit $450 before the end of the year. The new gold ETF could open a floodgate of new cash into gold as it will make investing in bullion easier for investors and many analysts said anticipation of the gold ETF was pushing gold higher before the launch.

"The introduction of the StreetTracks Gold ETF represents a major step forward for the ETF industry and investors by allowing individuals and small institutions an easy and cost-efficient vehicle to invest in gold as an asset class," said Jim Pacetti, head of consulting firm ETF International. "Previously, one had to use either the physical gold with the associated storage and insurance costs and wide spreads or use derivatives."

The World Gold Council first filed the prospectus with the SEC in May 2003 and managed to beat ETF giant Barclays Global Investors to the punch by being first to market.

BGI has filed a gold ETF with the SEC to be called iShares COMEX Gold Trust, which is slated to list on the American Stock Exchange.

Together, these products could gather $2 billion in assets in the next six months, Pacetti believes.

"There is certainly retail demand, but one interesting aspect of this story is that many institutional players had before been restricted from either holding gold directly or holding futures on gold," added Wiandt.

Both ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold owned by the trust, less the expenses of the trust's operations.

The funds will pay their fees by selling off small amounts of gold bullion. In other words, the fractional amount of physical gold represented by each share will decrease over the life of the trust.

Gold, like artwork, is classified as a collectible by the IRS and is therefore taxed at a higher 28 percent capital-gains rate in the United States after being held for more than one year.

According to filings, both ETFs will be structured as grantor investment trusts rather than registered investment companies, and expenses will be priced identically at 0.4 percent of assets. The Bank of New York will be the trustee for both ETFs.

Elsewhere, gold ETFs have already been listed in England, Australia, and South Africa.

Shares of the gold ETF last traded down 0.5 percent to $44.20.

John Spence is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch in Boston.

[verwijderd] 19 november 2004 08:48

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Gold is far from overvalued
By Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein CBSMarketWatch.com
Thursday, November 18, 2004
cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?gu...
2D472D%2D858B%2D0D249E8FE994%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

NEW YORK -- The Bush Bounce continues in the stock
market, but gold goes up too. What gives?

Wednesday night Dow Theory Letters' veteran editor
Richard Russell seemed almost on the point of abandoning
his long-held bearishness on stocks.

His (grudging) conclusion: "Is the stock market bubble
back? Feels to me as though it is. Wild prices going for
stocks that offer nothing in the way of dividends, but with
all this liquidity, what's a body to do but buy, buy, and,
well -- buy."

But Russell has also been relentlessly, if patiently, bullish
on gold. And it's paid off for him.

He said, "Gold and gold shares continue higher -- early in
their second phase bull market rise. You've ridden the bull
so far -- stay on his back even though he'll try his best to
shake you off."

Russell's explanation for the two rallies: "Liquidity, liquidity,
liquidity."

Recently we looked at the long-run stock market. We
concluded that the market was still quite high by historical
standards -- the excesses of the 1990s had not been worked
off.

They're even less worked off now!

But we'll see.

Now we look at gold over the long term.

As usual, we use the historical data on returns on financial
assets developed by Professor Jeremy Siegel of the
University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and used in
his classic book "Stocks For The Long Run." Siegel's data
and much else is available on his Web site at
www.jeremysiegel.com.

The remarkable thing about gold is that really has been a
store of value. Adjusted for inflation, a dollar invested in
gold in 1801 has fluctuated around about a dollar ever
since.

It's been as low as 59 cents (1970). And it's been as high
as $4.26 (1980).

Recently, it's rebounded to about $1.45.

What drove the gold price down in the mid-20th century,
of course, was that Washington fixed its price in U.S.
dollar terms.

Arguably, the 1980 rebound to $4.26 (over $800 in
nominal terms) was an overshoot reaction.

What now? Gold is getting into the range that it has
occupied for much of its history. In current terms,
$500 an ounce would seem a reasonable upper limit.

But gold is far below its 1980 recent peak.

And this recent history may matter more, for two
reasons.
First, there is a serious gold bug argument that
central bank selling has driven gold down since 1990
-- in effect fixing its price, arguably unsustainably, as
in the mid-20th century.
If so, an overshot reaction is possible. Replicating
1980s peak could roughly triple gold's price in today's
dollars.
Second, the financial history of the 20th century is
quite discontinuous with that of the 19th century.
Since the advent of the Federal Reserve, inflation
has been vastly greater than previously, and the
course of yields on bonds and bills fundamentally
altered.
We'll deal with that in a future column. For now, the
point is that, on the evidence of these charts, gold is
hardly overvalued.-----

Peter Brimelow is a columnist for CBSMarketWatch.
Edwin S. Rubenstein is president of ESR Research
in Indianapolis.

[verwijderd] 24 november 2004 08:53

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Gold heading for $1,000?
Barry Sergeant '23-NOV-04 16:00'

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Even a year ago, it was unthinkable that the world’s most powerful central banker would trash his country’s own currency. Yet last Friday, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, said that, given the size of the US current-account deficit, “a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point.”

However, Greenspan was merely confirming knowledge widespread among specialised investors. His words have re-ignited tarnished gold bugs everywhere, especially those who have been calling – for nearly 25 years – for gold to again reach $1,000 an ounce. For the meantime, however, it appears that gold at $500 an ounce would be like taking candy from kids.

It will need to reach that level to make 17-year highs. A succession of fresh 16-year highs have seen the price touch $450, as it did on Tuesday. In recent media interviews, Florida-based Tom O’Brien of Tiger Financial News Network said he was looking at $558 an ounce in “another year and a half.”

Johannesburg-based Nick Goodwin of Tlotlisa Securities is looking for $500 an ounce; Daniel Hynes, natural resources analyst at Australia's ANZ Institutional Banking, is pointing to $500 as well, while Richard Russell, crusty editor of Dow Theory Letters, is calling for $1,000 an ounce “before this bull market is over”. Unusual as it might be for any gold bug to anticipate that a gold bull market could one day be “over,” gold is up by about 80% since its swamp days in 1999, when it hit $250 an ounce, at the height of the dollar bull market.

But as much as some critics might say that gold bugs are wont to invoke weird theories (like Armageddon), there is one piece of empirical evidence that cannot be ignored. Since 1995, the start of the previous dollar bull market, dollar gold prices have shown a 90%+ inverse correlation to the dollar. That continued to hold after the dollar plunged into its latest bear market, early in 2002.

That protracted, multi-year bear market is still very much in place, and appears to have years to go, given the extent of the US current-account deficit. Given that broad-brush landscape, for generalist investors, gold bullion has become nothing more nor less than an alternative currency, with holdings contra-indicated by movements in the dollar.

However, more sober and independent analysis also concludes that the dollar gold bull market still has wings. BCA Research has just issued a note to the effect that “importantly, the rise is showing signs of outpacing dollar weakness.” To explain that piece of news - that would no doubt send gold bugs into further frenzies - BCA Research notes that gold bullion priced in yen is in a solid uptrend, “and even the euro price of bullion is close to a new cyclical high”.

That translates into the ultimate potential bull market: one that it broad; one where the suggestion is that markets are starting to discount more policy reflation outside the US. Non-dollar currency strength is seen as likely to force non-US authorities to relax policy, by lowering interest rates and/or by mounting acts of overt currency intervention.

The latter would now come as little surprise; in a note on Tuesday out of London, ING Financial Markets (which sees dollar weakness holding centre-stage of global economics in the near term) says comments of central bank officials (à la Greenspan) are likely “to be closely monitored, with the increasing possibility of a foreign exchange market intervention”.

Given the uncertainties in global capital markets, there is also a heightened degree of liquidity, enabling capital to be quickly switched from one jurisdiction to another, from one asset to another. For BCA Research, the bottom line is that the gold bull market should persist until the dollar stops falling and/or conditions which would force policy tightening develop: “neither appears imminent”.

[verwijderd] 25 november 2004 09:56

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Look for silver lining in gold ETF success
Dorothy Kosich
'24-NOV-04 04:00'

RENO--(Mineweb.com) Perhaps, no one watched the events of the past week more closely than the "silver barons."

As streetTRACKS Gold Trust reaped $1.3 billion in its first three days of trading, and set a volume record for derivatives on its opening day, one can bet the minds of these pure silver company CEOs were chomping at the bit to unveil next generation of commodity-backed ETFs.

The silver ETF is definitely coming, and may even make its debut early next year. Silver producers and the Silver Institute are fairly tight-lipped at this point because of a "quiet period" as the proposal winds its way through the SEC. One thing is for certain, however, the first U.S. silver-ETF is not going to be a clone of the World Gold Council gold ETF model.

Unlike their major gold company brethren who comprise the membership of the World Gold Council, the modern silver kings are genuinely comfortable directly promoting their silver stocks to retail investors. And, the small retail investor may find the lower price of a silver ETF stock far more appealing then its upscale gold predecessor.

Therefore, if a gold ETF is trading like gangbusters at around $44.75 or roughly one-tenth the price of gold bullion, imagine what a silver-backed ETF could do at 74-cents? The introduction of the gold ETF has definitely attracted new interest in gold. It is realistic to consider that folks who may have never considered investing in gold stocks or in physical gold might actually be willing to dip a toe into a silver ETF.

Folks who are loathe to hoard or pay for the storage gold bullion, probably are just as reluctant to keep silver bars under the mattress. Therefore, the ordinary investor who can now buy, sell and own gold bullion without having to take delivery, might be willing to put their few precious extra dollars into silver bullion.

Thanks to the World Gold Council's pioneering work on the Equity Gold Trust, silver producers, basically, already have the road cleared for them. The World Gold Council is in the midst of a strong media campaign to promote the gold ETF. This in turn, could help backers of a silver ETF. However, the Washington, DC-based Silver Institute doesn't possess the same budgetary resources to emulate the World Gold Council's approach. So, it would make sense that the silver producers might choose another ETF model.

Meanwhile, there are some stumbling blocks faced by commodity-backed ETFs. Admittedly, a stock-based index or mutual fund doesn't have to pay for storage and handling costs for a commodity. The American Stock Exchange recently created a new index of gold stocks. Meanwhile, Barclays Global Investors is awaiting SEC approval to come out with their own brand of gold-based ETF.

Another concern remains the taxation of gold and silver bullion. Nevertheless, both the House and the Senate introduced measures in the current session of Congress to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to treat gold, silver, and platinum, in either coin or bar form, in the same manner as stocks and bonds for purposes of the maximum capital gains rate for individuals. With Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, now in charge, a strong possibility exists that something may finally be enacted in the new session of Congress. Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nevada, a geologist and attorney, continues to gain seniority and committee clout in the House.

The pure silver producers are renown for trying new approaches and/or fine-tuning what has worked for their larger major gold counterparts. Silver prices have been looking for awhile, giving them further impetus to try other marketing tools to increase silver consumption.

So do not be surprised to see if a silver ETF helps ring in a new year for metals investors

[verwijderd] 27 november 2004 23:10

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Gold Bars Welcomed by Chinese consumers

China Daily, Beijing
Saturday, November 27, 2004

www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/200...

With more cash in their wallets, many Chinese are
looking for ways to diversify their investments to
guarantee the security of assets and to even seek
a profit.

For many, gold seems to be the favored choice. The
second batch of 2005 New Years Celebration Gold
Bars have just gone on sale in Beijing and being
warmly received by potential consumers.

Ranging from 50 to 1,000 grams, the gold bars are
selling at 128 Yuan per gram, an increase of 3 Yuan
compared with the first batch of bars that sold out
quickly just a week ago.

Wang Chunli, general manager of Beijing Caibai
Department Store, said, "The main reason for the
increase in price is because the international gold
price rose. Our price will move closely with the
Chinese benchmark."

The international gold price has been on a up-trend
recently. On November 25, the international gold
price hit almost a 16-year high of 452.75 US dollars
per ounce. But this small increase has not frightened
consumers away.

Wang said, "The first 300 kilograms of gold bars sold
out very quickly. The second batch is only 200
kilograms, but we've received orders of more than
1,000 kilograms. If it is possible, we will try every
means to provide a big enough third batch to meet the
demand, maybe another 300 kilograms."

The bullish price reflects a strong market demand. The
enthusiastic public response is obviously very good
news for gold producers. One industry organization
forecasts that the gold sector will see a big rise in
profits for the year.

According to statistics of the China Gold Association,
in the first three quarters of 2004, profits from its 300
member gold producers totaled more than 2 billion
Yuan, or US$245 million, a jump of 35 percent year
on year.

Gold output amounted to some 149 tons during this
period, an increase of 7 percent. Total gold demand
in 2004 is expected to rise to 220 tons from 207 last
years.

[verwijderd] 29 november 2004 23:04

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THE GOLD BUG IN ALL OF US
by The Mogambo Guru

Alert reader Jim E. sent me a New York Times article by a guy named James Surowiecki, who has written an interesting article: Why Gold? Jim thought the guy was the "dumbest S.O.B that ever lived" and of course, I was excited to hear about a guy who was a bigger and dumber S.O.B than me!

So, I go to the link that Jim provided, and was sped, straightaway, to the very article to which he referred. I never heard of this Surowiecki guy, and I assume that it was some dumb filler by a new intern or something, but it was an interestingly told, but old story, with a distinct bias, about how gold is just a metal, and when you buy metal you are not investing in plants and machinery and production, and how gold is the ultimate in speculation and blah blah blah. He deems belief in gold as "a testament to the tenacity of popular delusion. What is gold, after all? Strictly speaking, it's a commodity." Well, duh! He then goes a step over the line when he dismisses me, as "Gold bugs are classic cranks." Although he did not mention me by name, if you read between the lines you could easily tell that he WAS talking about me! The bastard!

The dispiriting thing is that he makes some valid points about gold. For example, "Gold's buying power has plummeted," he says. "In 1980, ten ounces of gold would have bought you a nice car. Today, it would get you a nice bike." I don't know where he buys HIS bikes, but around my house we don't spend $4,450.00 for no stinking bike, especially when there are so many perfectly good free bikes just sitting, abandoned, in neat little rows next to schools and playgrounds! Weird, huh? (I figure it is part of some space alien thing or another. My warning is "Watch the bikes!") But I am not going to begrudge the guy just because he can afford fancy-schmancy bikes, while I am on this pink My Little Pony bicycle that is four sizes too small for me, but which does have this handy little white plastic basket in front, and featuring a smiling pony with a rainbow-colored mane.

But with a slightly different perspective, Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein, of CBS.marketwatch.com, write, "The remarkable thing about gold is that really has been a store of value. Adjusted for inflation, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 has fluctuated around about a dollar ever since. For now, the point is that, on the evidence of these charts, gold is hardly overvalued." And from the look on The Mogambo's face and the way he is pounding the table trying to convince you to buy gold, gold, gold, and silver, silver, silver, and oil, oil, oil, there is also some evidence that gold is waaayyyy undervalued. Both these guys are saying so! And while we are talking about it, so is silver, which has the most compelling fundamentals of any asset on the planet.

But even Mr. Surowiecki admits, "So there's a little bit of the gold bug in all of us." Then he goes into the very reason to own gold, "Still, in a world of 'swaptions' and strips, gold's allure is increasingly atavistic. The idea of gold as a platonic currency, universally valuable across time and space, reflects a basic distrust of markets, a fear that in a world of paper money wealth is just an illusion." Yes! Yes! That's it exactly! Fear and illusion and distrust! And don't forget treachery and bankruptcy and ruination! That's the whole lesson of history of economics! And if Mr. Surowiecki doesn't like it, then that explains perfectly why he is writing in a Leftist newspaper, parroting the typical Leftist dogma that governments are to be trusted, and that the Founding Fathers were wrong when they insisted in the freaking Constitution itself that money shall ONLY be silver and gold! The guys who participated in the American Revolution and created the freaking government did not trust government, for God's sake!

Now everyone is looking at me and quietly arming themselves with baseball bats and those damned Tazer zappers because they can tell that I am getting pretty wound up here, and those little tattletale machines I am hooked up to are all going "beep beep beep!" With a mighty effort, a Mighty Mogambo Effort (MME), I calm myself down, my brawny chest and broad shoulders heaving mightily, and I take a deep breath, flip the selector to full-auto and shoot off a clip of expensive bullets into a bush that is acting strangely. He goes on: "For gold bugs, paper money turns us all into Wile E. Coyote - we're running on air, and we'll plummet once we look down and realize there's nothing holding us up. The gold bug's apocalyptic mentality maintains that someday the global economy will look down and the result will be chaos. Gold is the only thing that will still be valuable after the bottom drops out." Yes! This is it! Get this Surowiecki on the phone! Ring ring ring! Damn. Nobody home, and he forgot to turn his answering machine on. So, if you see this guy, tell him that the Mogambo says, "Yes! Exactly right. Mr. Surowiecki, if that IS your real name! This is the reason that people own gold! And it is the reason that ALL thinking people eventually own gold, too, because all that stuff you talk about is what WILL happen, not only to Wile E. Coyote, but to us, too, because that is what DID happen ALL the other times in history, and that is why I am so sure that it will happen again, just as sure as I am that a fat dog will eat a hamburger!"

He sums up: "One could say that gold is the biggest, most durable bubble in history. Someday, even this one may pop." To that, he is also right. But that day is a long way off, as we have not even gotten a good start on paying penance for the economic sins that we have committed, a particular circumstance for which gold is particularly suited.

And we committed these economic and financial sins against our own Constitution, against the Laws of Economics, against all of economic history, against common sense, and against the wishes of The Mogambo, all of which proves that we are a monumentally stupid race of people. And if you examine the Laws of Nature, you will notice that she is not kind to the stupid. In short, we deserve to be eaten, so that others, who are more economically fit, from a Darwinian perspective, may survive. And then, Mister Smarty Pants Journalist, what are YOU going to do?

For the last 5,000 years in a row, all the people who needed an answer to that question always came back to gold, because there IS nothing else. But many will come to appreciate that fact too, too late. Ugh.

Regards, The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

www.dailyreckoning.com/

[verwijderd] 2 december 2004 08:41

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Pierre Lasonde: Take Stock in Gold By Tim Wood01 Dec 2004 at 11:05 AM EST

[0':05"] If you really want to know what the next 5-10 years are going to look like, I tell people that the best thing to do is look back to the 1970s. I really loved the music of the 70s, but look at the economic conditions and you're going to find that today we live in a world that is very similar.

[0':43"] In the 1960s we had very strong economic growth in the US and high productivity and low inflation – same thing here in the 1990s – and then it was followed by the Vietnam War. Well today we have Al Qaeda's War. In Vietnam, America was fighting over communism. Today it's fighting Islamic fundamentalism. Same difference the French will tell you! Now the only reason the French know a little bit more is because they got their head handed to them in Vietnam, and they told the Americans "don't go there!". The French also had Algeria, and they said to the Americans you know what, don't go there. Because they got their backsides kicked in Algeria as well. It's not that they really are smarter, they've just been there first.

[1':39"] The next thing that happened in the 1970s is we had an oil shock. Oil went up five times between 1971 and 1974. Guess what? Between 1998 and 2004 oil has gone up five times!

[2':54"] The monetary policies of the 1970s were highly expansionary with a negative real rate of interest. Guess what we're having today? Negative real rate of interest for the last two years. The rate of inflation is actually higher than the Treasury Bill rate and it's likely to stay that way for a bit longer.

[2':16"] We also saw a huge increase in the budget deficit in the 1970s. Well, same today. We've gone from a surplus of $150bn to negative $450bn, that's a swing of $600bn in budget deficit. Look at the current account deficit in the US. It's now over $660bn. That represents 70% of the world's savings that this country has to have every year to live in the style we've been accustomed to. How long can that last? Not forever.

[2':55"] Finally in the 1970s we saw a huge increase in commodity prices and we can see that right here. Commodity prices represented by the CRB Index, the Commodity Research Bureau Index, went up 250% between 1971 and 1980. We're up 60% so far. Let me ask you, do you think that that's the end? Over a 10 year period 250% and over a two year period we're up 60%.

[3':37"] Let's look at the things that are not the same from the 1970s.

[3':44"] The first difference is inflation. In the 1970s, for those of you who have a few white hairs and for some who have no hair, inflation was a real problem. It peaked at something like 14-15%. Why? Well some of it was because of the dollar devaluation, some of it was because of price push inflation and a lot of it was cost push inflation that came from union bargaining who could afford to increase wages throughout the economy because there was no alternative.

[4':29"] Today we have a very different situation where China in particular, Asia in a global fashion, is exporting wage deflation. If you go to a Wal-Mart today 70% of the goods sold there are basically from Asia, a lot of it from China. These countries can produce anything at cheaper prices than anybody else. If there's one thing that you have to remember it's that China today is the world price setter for commodities that it buys and for the finished goods that it exports. That's a first in economic history where a country is so dominant in either what it buys or what it sells.

[5':21"] So, if you look at the US economy, do we have inflation? Yes. If you look at services, you know, Starbucks increased its coffee price; you try to go to a Broncos' game and tickets are up 50% over the last three years. Yeah, we do have some inflation but then on the other hand we have deflation that's exported in the products that you go buy at Wall-Marts or any other commodity.

[5':57"] It's like having your head in the oven and your feet in a bucket of ice. On average its feels pretty good and that's exactly what you've got – the inflation rate supposedly is around 2%, but in reality it doesn't feel quite that way because either it's really cold or it's really hot. And it's likely to stay that way for the next few years.

[6':28"] I think you're going to have some inflation that's going to come through on the finished product side because China's inflation rate is increasing and they're going to have at the end of the day to increase the currency too. So you will have China exporting a higher inflation but I don't think it's going to go from more than 4 or 5%, enough however to have real interest rates stay negative even if the Fed pushes interest rates to 3 or 4%. My view is that you're still likely to have negative real rate of interest which is very good for gold.

[7':07"] The next thing is savings. When you look at the savings rate: in the 1970s in the US it was about 8%. Today, believe it or not, it is close to zero. Last quarter in the United States the same savings rate was 0.4% of GDP.

[7':28"] How can you have a country continue to invest with zero savings? That's a huge problem and that's why the current account deficit is so high. It cannot go on forever. What's happened is that the rest of the world has been funding our current account deficit to the tune of over $600bn a year. Every year the US economy is being sold at the rate of 1% to the rest of the world. You can't do that forever. What's going to have to give is the currency.

[8':07"] The final difference with the 1970s is the amount of debt in the economy.

[8':08"] In the 1970s we had 130% gross total debt including corporate, government and private debt. Today we have that figure over 200% of GDP. The last time the US economy was over 200% of debt to GDP was 1930. Not a good reference point!

[8':35"] Consumers today are tapped out and over indebted; basically the Fed has painted itself in a corner. If the Fed was to raise interest rates to a level that would have a significant real rate of interest it would plunge the economy into a recession and possibly even worse.

[9':00"] It cannot afford to raise rates to 7,8 or 9%. Or even 5% for that matter. So, what gave in the 1970s? Who was the big winner and who the big loser? The big loser was the US dollar.

[9':21"] If you look back to the 1970s and you look at the two major currencies against which the dollar depreciated, well it was the yen and the Deutsche mark and funny enough the only difference between the two was two zeros. The yen was 350, the Deutsche mark was 3. 50, and where did they end up? They ended up at 165 and 1.65, for a depreciation of over 50% of the dollar against these currencies.

[10':01"] Who was the big winner? Well, there was one big winner and it was gold.

[10':17"] The gold price went up 2500% from 1970 at $35 to 1980 at $850; for one minute it was $850. That was okay! Gold was undervalued because don't forget at that point in time gold was fixed by the government so if you really think about it and you start in 1974 when gold was, had already been loose for a couple of years, gold really went up from about 100 to, it did go to $800 on a, but let's say 600, that's still about a 500% increase between 1974 and 1981 or 82.

Gold today is a currency once more.

[11':22"] If you look at the gold price vis-à-vis the dollar euro relationship what you're going to find is

[verwijderd] 4 december 2004 11:12

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A new gold rush

www.business-standard.com/search/stor...

Surajeet Das Gupta & Deepa Krishnan / New Delhi/Mumbai December 4, 2004

Nothing exemplifies the growing lustre of gold as much as its current bull rush in the market. On Dhanteras day, for example, harried customers heckled each other as they queued up for hours to gain entry into Tanishq’s outlet in south Delhi, waiting to buy jewellery.

Executives in the retail store recorded an astounding 3,000 footfalls on that day alone, virtually double the numbers the previous year. Sales that day were an all-time high record of Rs 1.75 crore.

Nor was the rush limited to Delhi alone. Tanishq’s Bangalore headquarters has posted the startling countrywide sales for this day at over Rs 26 crore, up by over 30 per cent from last year.

The yellow metal is an attractive investment once again, thanks to the steep rise in gold prices (due to the weakening dollar) and the increasing availability of institutionalised ways to buy and sell gold. The gold rush is reflected in the country’s two commodity exchanges, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange of India (NCDX), where futures trading in gold began a year ago.

Volumes have since increased dramatically from a mere 100 kg in gold to the current over 10,000 kg a day. Says Joseph Massey, deputy managing director in MCX: “Both gold and silver are currently among the most liquid commodities in the futures market.”

Hyderabad-based Karvy Commodities Broking Pvt Ltd, which manages retail investors who trade in commodities, says that as much as 70 per cent of the trading volumes of its clients is in gold and silver.

Banks too have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Corporation Bank and Indian Bank have started offering loans to customers to buy gold on easy EMIs. ICICI Bank is hawking gold coins in the retail segment as an attractive investment tool; it hopes to nearly double its sales to 2 tonnes by the end of this financial year, hitting the Rs 140-crore mark.

Says Anup Bagchi, general manager retail liabiltities, ICICI Bank: “The huge increase in demand is because consumers now have a branded, quality product with ensured purity.”

ICICI Bank sells its gold in small denominations of 5-10 gm coins, making it easy for even small investors to park their money in gold. Tanishq, a division of the Tata-controlled Titan Industries, has seen a 100 per cent increase in its sale of gold coins this year over last year.

The company hopes to sell coins alone worth Rs 30 crore. And Harish Bhat, chief operating officer, jewellery division, Titan Industries, says he expects to end the year with a 45 per cent increase in sales of gold jewellery.

There are many others who are indirectly cashing in on the gold boom. Delhi’s Gold Souk, the country’s first jewellery mall in Gurgaon, is experiencing amazing footfalls of 2,500 customers on average over weekends.

Says G S Pillai, president, Gold Souk: “That is a huge number, considering that the conversion rate of footfalls into sales is almost 100 per cent.”

No wonder Gold Souk is on overdrive. It has already sold almost 60 per cent of its 1.1 lakh sq ft space in the jewellery mall, and is now working on setting up nine similar malls across the country at an investment of under Rs 400 crore. Talks are also on with commodity exchanges to use the premises for trading in gold and silver.

At a macro level too, the numbers clearly show phenemonal demand for gold in India this year. The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates that consumer demand for gold between July-September this year went up by 28 per cent in rupee terms and 16 per cent in tonnage terms over the previous year. Compare that with a mere 3 per cent growth in 2003 over the previous year in tonnage terms and the hunger for gold becomes evident.

More importantly, Rajan Venkatesh, director India of bullion in Nova Scotia Bank, says: “The peak season for buying gold lasts from October to March,” indicating the trend is likely to contnue well into the new year.

Interestingly too, the offtake of gold for purposes of investment (in bars, coins etc) has been growing faster than jewellery. Between January and September, gold offtake in rupee terms went up by 21.6 per cent as compared to 19.9 per cent for jewellery.

Trends in previous years indicate that it was jewellery that enjoyed an edge over bullion. That trend has been reversed this year. Last year, gold for investment peaked at 90 tonnes but WGC estimates that it would clear the 100-tonne mark, which constitutes about a fifth of all gold imported to India.

There are sound reasons for the new lease of life that gold is enjoying. Suggests WGC managing director Sanjiv Aggarwal: “The rise in gold prices, the fear of potenial inflation fuelled by oil prices (gold is a good hedge) and the need to diversify risks, especially their exposures in bonds and shares, and an overall strong economic growth has prompted the demand for gold this year in India.”

Gold prices skyrocketed this Thursday hitting $456.75 after remaining stable at around $450-455 the last few days. Analysts say a correction could be in the offing despite the massive current deficit in the US, after which it will again be on the upswing. Similarly, in India gold prices have shot up by nearly 17 per cent from around Rs 5,675 in mid-May to over Rs 6,635 for 10 gm on Thursday.

From another plane, absolute return on gold based on closing prices in the NCDX for a six-month period ending November 20 was as high as 13.68 per cent — surely more attractive than many other investment instruments.

Elaborates V Sivaramakrishnan, an analyst in Karvy Commodities: “In the past six months the returns have been about 14 per cent; on an annualised basis this means 30 per cent. That is as attractive as the stock market.”

Experts expect the prices to firm up further. Says Mumbai based bullion consultant Bhargava Vaidya: “In the short term, over the next four months, gold could trade at $415-450 but could touch $500 later — depending on the political and economic situation in West Asia.”

Avers Krishna Nathani, head research in Indiabullion.com: “One should wait for gold to get back to $430 levels where people could once again begin investments. This would help in sustaining the rally.” He suggests that up to 30 per cent of one’s portfolio could be invested in gold and silver.

Apart from the upside, buying and selling of gold is becoming easier as the gold market gets increasingly more institutionalised support. Corporation Bank, for instance, has floated a “Corp Mahila Gold” scheme that allows individuals loans to buy jewellery up to Rs 50,000 with no alternate security payable in EMIs at interest rates ranging from 10-12.25 per cent.

Says a senior executive of the bank: “We hope to grow this scheme in a big way but are initially looking at a small target of Rs 10 crore this year. Our main target is to attract the salaried working women.”

Tanishq has a “Gold Harvest Scheme” under which customers can make a monthly deposit of Rs 500 for 12-18 months (you get Rs 6,300 back on a 12-month deposit). The company pays out between 7-9 per cent interest on the deposit as bonus but the money has to be used for buying jewe

[verwijderd] 6 december 2004 12:03

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What's Buffing Up Gold? Is $1,000 a Real Target? Analyst, Fund Manager
Give the Goods on Gold By Worth Civils The Wall Street Journal Online
Thursday, December 2, 2004

Gold prices have surged 50 percent since early 2002 to more than $450 an ounce, and some market
watchers are brazenly slapping a $1,000 price target on the metal for the near future.

That crystal-ball forecast seems heady. But John Bridges, a senior gold analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase
& Co. since 1995 and author of "The Golden Goose" newsletter, says gold has already hit that level -- even passed it -- when adjusted for inflation. But he still has "problems with gold as an investment."

And it's not all about the flailing dollar. Other factors, some real (supply and demand) and some eccentric (Indian thoughts of the afterlife) are playing a role, says Joseph Foster, portfolio manager of the $290 million Van Eck International Investors Gold fund, the first of its kind in the United States, dating back to 1956. He calls gold "the ultimate form of currency."Can gold keep shining? Is $1,000 an ounce a realistic target? And how does inflation factor in? Messrs. Bridges and Foster answer our questions.

The Wall Street Journal Online: Gold is up 14 percent since late 2003, but the Amex Gold Bugs
index (a basket of gold stocks) is down 11 percent from a year ago. Why hasn't the price of gold filtered into the price of many gold-oriented stocks?

Mr. Bridges: We're positive on gold as hedge against the weaker dollar. Even if the dollar does recover, the strain on the world's economic system by these swings in currencies suggests having gold as insurance isn't such a bad idea.

Gold producers are suffering quite significantly from higher energy prices. Diesel has become quite a big part of some mining operating costs -- as much as 20 percent. Then you also have the strength of the resource currencies -- the Australian and Canadian dollars and the South African rand. Even the Peruvian sol is appreciating against the dollar. A lot of these big diversified miners have operations in these countries, and that's affecting their operations.

Mr. Foster: We went through a severe correction back in April and May, for both gold and gold shares. They were down substantially. If you look at the performance since then through the end of November, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver index (XAU) is up 37 percent. Gold prices are up 20 percent. So you look over that longer time frame, and the shares have done fairly well. They've significantly outperformed gold.

Online Journal: Is it all about the dollar? Under what scenario could the price of gold reverse course?

Mr. Bridges: The biggest factor still appears to be the dollar. But I think we are getting some new buyers of gold stocks on the basis of a likely fall in supply. It's becoming accepted that gold production is going to drift lower. Annual orders for gold are about 3,500 tons a year. The mines produce about 2,500 tons. The gap is made up with sales from central banks, which agreed in 1999 to start limiting sales of gold. Since then, gold has been trading in this higher range.

Mr. Foster: The market has been very strong, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some dollar strength and a pullback in gold. There's been talk of European or Japanese intervention in the currency markets. That hasn't happened yet, but given the extreme levels that currencies are at, we can't count that out. There could be a little change of sentiment if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates further.

So I think in the near term, a correction is in order. Longer term, with our trade deficit at record levels and growing, I think the dollar still has further to fall, which will be good for gold.

Online Journal: What about strong demand from India?

Mr. Bridges: We've just come out of Diwali, an Indian celebration. I don't know if it was organized by the gold merchants, but I'm told that you qualify for a better position in paradise the more you spend on gold during Diwali. Then we go into the wedding season now, and that too is a time when a lot of gold is bought. So this end of the year is typically very strong for gold.

Mr. Foster: We've seen strong demand out of the Middle East, India, and Asia, as those economies have been booming. Seasonally, this is the strongest time of the year for gold: You have holidays in India, Ramadan in the Muslim world, and Christmas. Those are all strong periods of buying.

India is the largest gold consumer in the world. So it does have a huge impact. They have an affinity for gold. People in India, rather than putting money in bank, might buy a gold bracelet. That's not jewelry but a form of savings.

Online Journal: Have gold prices -- and returns -- kept pace with inflation?

Mr. Bridges: Gold has been remarkable in terms of holding its value versus inflation. I saw a table on the Motley Fool site that showed the performance of gold over 200 years, and suggested the price had held its value. It hadn't grown, but it had not lost value. It maintained its value in real terms. That is something I don't think anybody would argue.

Online Journal: The nominal price of gold has remained relatively constant since 1988, while the S&P 500 has quadrupled (as pointed out this week by New Yorker financial columnist James Surowiecki). Does that make gold a terrible investment?

Mr. Bridges: I have problems with the concept of gold as an investment. Investment implies that the asset increases in value, and we've just established that gold's chief characteristic is that it holds its value. But you've got various different categories of investment in gold. If you are lucky enough to buy into an exploration company that makes a discovery, you can effectively buy your own autoteller machine. Some of these things are just phenomenally profitable.

Mr. Foster: When people think about investing in gold, many think like they do when investing in stocks or bonds. The purpose of gold is to provide portfolio insurance. Gold has a very low or even negative correlation with most other asset classes. It is volatile and can have big swings.

Online Journal: So what is the best way to get exposure to gold, aside from robbing Fort Knox?

Mr. Bridges: Gold bullion itself -- if you're worried about where currencies are going, worried about the level of stock market perhaps -- is about the safest you can do. Gold has held its value for millennia, so that still has a role. It's not a very popular role at the moment, but it's still there. Gold equities offer more convenient access to exposure.

Mr. Foster: We think the best obviously would be to invest in a gold fund. We invest in gold mining shares, which despite performance over last couple of months historically have good leverage to the gold price, especially in a rising price environment. Historically, the XAU has two times leverage to gold price.

Or you can invest in gold mining stocks -- that's an option -- or in the metal itself. There's also a new vehicle now that just came out this month, the streetTracks Gold Trust exchange-traded fund. That broadens the gold-investment universe, if you will, and offers another option for investors.

Online Journal: Some have said that buying gold is "the purest form of speculation," since gold is valuable only as long as we collectively agree that it is. How do you respond?

Mr. Bridges: I think gol

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Online Journal: Some have said that buying gold is "the purest form of speculation," since gold is valuable only as long as we collectively agree that it is. How do you respond?

Mr. Bridges: I think gold has demonstrated an ability to maintain its value more effectively than paper currency.During periods of expansion, granted, gold appears to lose relative value, but the historical record shows how it has maintained its value. I don't understand that argument.

Mr. Foster: Gold has a very long history. It has a unique role in the financial markets. It's not a commodity like copper or nickel or iron ore. It's recognized around the world like a currency -- transportable, divisible. It's malleable, it has unique electrical properties, it's used in computers. It has intrinsic value.

What makes it such a great currency is that it's got a limited supply. Unlike the U.S. dollar, you can't create gold virtually out of thin air. You can't print as much gold as you want to. It has a limited supply. And so it is the ultimate form of currency and that makes it a unique financial asset. It's not, in the sense that you say, a speculative instrument. It is a legitimate financial asset and has a role to play in an investment portfolio.

Online Journal: Some of the current forecasts are for gold to reach $1,000 an ounce. How realistic is this? Do investors anticipate a sustained rally?

Mr. Bridges: Well, there are lots of investors in this space. Some are looking for more than $1,000. In 2003 dollars, the gold price has been to $1,200 already. The $800 that gold achieved in 1979-80, if you inflate it up to current-day dollars, it's over $1,000 an ounce. We've been talking about the inverse correlation between gold price and the dollar.So $1,000 an ounce implies a dollar probably half the
level it is today, which is perhaps a bit of stretch.

Mr. Foster: I think there are economic scenarios in the global economy that could get us a gold price of $1,000 an ounce. Looking at the mood we're in now, I don't see any reason why the market can't test $500 in the next several months. If and when we get to that level, then we'll evaluate the markets at that point and determine whether we think we can go higher from there.

But there are so many imbalances in the global economy, from the shifts in currencies that we're seeing,the tremendous debt levels that are held in the U.S. The trade deficits, the extremely low savings rate in the U.S. -- these are things that can precipitate some sort of financial crisis that could send gold into the four-figure levels.

[verwijderd] 7 december 2004 21:22

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Ron Paul: Gold Exposes the Dollar
-http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2004/tst120604.htm

December 6, 2004

The existence of gold in the economy is a constant reminder of the poor quality of the government paper, and it always poses a threat to replace the paper as the country's money.
Economist Murray Rothbard

One year ago I wrote about the precipitous decline in the value of the U.S. dollar against other world currencies, a decline that continues unabated today. A Euro note worth only 89 cents shortly after its introduction was worth about $1.16 at the end of 2003. Today it’s worth $1.33. In fact, the dollar has fallen to an all-time low against the Euro, and a 12-year low against the British pound. Since 2000, the dollar has lost 30% of its value.

Gold, by contrast, has surged 70% in the same period. The New York Times last week acknowledged that gold “was now a more favored currency than the U.S. dollar.” As analyst Harry Schultz points out, when gold prices are low the financial press calls gold a commodity. When prices are high, they call it a currency. Investors cannot afford to sit idly by while their dollar accounts lose another 30% in value, so the rise in demand for gold is hardly surprising.

The world financial markets are betting against the dollar. Our creditors, particularly Asian central banks, are losing their appetite for U.S. Treasuries. Our federal government’s huge debt and voracious appetite for deficit spending make our economy dependent on the actions of foreign governments and central bankers. Yet few Americans realize the extent to which their own government has sold out American sovereignty by borrowing money overseas.

Washington seems oblivious to the problem. Our current account deficit is roughly 6% of GDP, and our total foreign indebtedness is over $3 trillion. We borrow $1.8 billion every day! Unfortunately, our politicians and the public will ignore the problem until the combination of dollar inflation, price inflation, and higher interest rates brings the borrowing frenzy to an end. Americans, like their government, seem to have lost the ability to live within their means. When their standard of living falls, however, they will look for someone to blame in Washington.

The consequences of a rapidly declining dollar are not yet obvious to the American public. A trip to Europe costs more than it did a few years ago, but most Americans still don’t sense they are becoming poorer as the dollar falls. The long-term significance has not yet begun to sink in. However, our relative wealth as a nation is measured in dollars, and the steady erosion of the value of those dollars means we will all be poorer in the future. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has relentlessly increased the money supply throughout his tenure, ostensibly to keep the economy expanding. But this artificial stimulation through cheap money comes with a price. When dollars are abundant, they are worth less. This is the reality facing Americans today, especially older Americans who rely on savings to finance their retirement years.

[verwijderd] 10 december 2004 09:57

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Despite digital photos, silver is looking good
Dorothy Kosich'10-DEC-04 05:00'

b>SPOKANE, Washington--(Mineweb.com) Metals experts attending the Northwest Mining Association Thursday declared silver to be the "truly indispensible metal," as its growing industrial and medical applications replace some of the drop in photographic uses.

Jeffrey Christian, Managing Director of the CPM Metals Group--which publishes an annual silver study considered a benchmark for the industry--declared that silver demand is still strong and outpaces supply.

He explained that the market has been living off silver inventories since 1990. Bullion inventories are at historically low levels. From a peak of 2.2 billion ounces of silver in 1990, bullion inventories are now estimated at 300 million ounces. "We are far below where we ever were before...in terns of silver inventories," Christian said.

Even if the scenario involved new silver-producing mines adding an additional 100 million ounces of silver annually, and the demand for silver in photography was lost, Christian said silver supplies would still be in a tight deficit. Because the general public is more accepting of lower quality digital images for photography, photographic use of silver is falling. The bright side of this development is as silver usage in photography declines, so does the more than 20% of the silver supply which comes from photo scrap, according to Christian.

In fact, CPM uses a scenario that assumes silver photographic use will not fall further, but, rather, will remain flat in the future.

The demands for silver have expanded into fabrics and bandages to reduce bacteria, refrigerators, NASA, combating water-borne disease, water purification, laboratory and food preparation, and superconductors to supply more power, he explained. Even long-time silver aficionado India is changing its consumption patterns, according to Christian. However, as international government silver stocks decline, India still possesses the lion's share at 86 million ounces.

Meanwhile, China continues to export silver it processes as a byproduct from its substantial smelting industry. Silver use in China will grow as more Chinese can afford to become consumers of electronics, automobiles, and other goods, which utilize the metal. However, Christian cautioned that China will probably use its own byproduct silver when manufacturing these goods.

CPM's silver survey asserts that "one of the more interesting developments is the rise in the volume of silver futures and operations being traded on organized exchanges and the decline in volumes of silver being traded through the London-centered international bullion banking market." Silver trading volumes are 50 to 100 times the size of physical market transactions, according to Christina. The average London trade is half of what it used to be. However, he added, investment funds have increased their investment in silver. He predicts a silver to gold ratio of 50:1.

CPM's 2005 silver survey will come out in April 2005.

[verwijderd] 15 december 2004 00:23

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Happy Indians vs. NY (shorts?)

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.67, PM $8.62, with world gold at $438.55 and $438.65. High: very ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a specimen of a fairly rare story: India bullion dealers exulting over business:

"NEW DELHI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's largest importer, has been boosted by soft global prices and fresh gains made by the rupee…traders said on Tuesday. "It is the best buying opportunity," said Ashok Chokshi, a leading trader from Ahmedabad's bullion trading hub of Manikchowk Dealers in Bombay, India's financial capital, said 600 to 700 kg of gold was being sold every day in the city, compared with 400 to 500 kg at the beginning of December. "Vacation demand is boosting sales and if prices remain at the current levels we hope to do good business," Suresh Hundia, an official of Bombay Bullion Association, told Reuters Sales in the western city of Ahmedabad, which supplies gold to the adjoining states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, have doubled to around 300 kg daily from a week ago, traders said."

This type of report is usually a signal of a world gold price low.

Indian buying power looks like being further accentuated by a further rise in the rupee. The Reserve Bank apparently intervened to block a further rise today, but expectations are widespread that it will permit more gains shortly.

[verwijderd] 18 december 2004 12:06

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SILVER’S THREE FLAGS December 17, 2004 By Hugo Salinas Price

Silver as a vehicle for popular savings, has turned out to be a very effective flag that has gathered support amongst the principal Mexican political parties, which in everything else are deeply at odds with one another.

This past 30th of November, the 31 governors of all the states that make up the Mexican Republic sent a communiqué to the "Ways and Means" Committee of the Mexican House of Representatives, in which they expressed their unanimous approval of the monetization of silver and urged the Committee to approve a bill which aims to achieve precisely this objective.

176 Mexican newspaper writers put their signatures to full page declarations by the Journalists’ Club in the main newspapers of Mexico City, also in support of the monetization of the "Libertad" silver ounce.

A permanent organization of ex legislators also expressed their support for the measure in favor of the monetization of silver.

A poll by national T.V. Azteca, revealed that 96% of viewers approved of the monetization of the silver ounce, when asked if they were, or were not, in favor.

The Bank of Mexico, Mexico’s Central Bank, is adamantly opposed to this measure. It does not want the public to have the opportunity of saving in monetized silver. It wants to maintain its unblemished monopoly on the printing of Mexico’s money, which has no intrinsic value, and does not want the public to have any alternative for its savings, other than bills or bank deposits.The Bank of Mexico sent a group of twelve men to the meeting of the Ways and Means Committee on the 30th of November, in order to confuse and cow the members of this committee, and forestall a favorable vote on the bill to monetize silver.We do not know how the members of the Committee will cast their decisive vote, when the time comes.

Even in case their vote should be negative, we can predict, by the support given to this reasonable and salutary measure in the interest of Mexico, that the idea of monetizing silver will not die.The idea of using silver as money that cannot be devalued, for savings by the people, is now firmly rooted in the public conscience of Mexico. An idea on the march is a force that does not die easily. Suppressed, it will only gather more strength. Such is the history of all ideas.

But silver flies another, more important flag.

In the mid-19th Century, when modern Italy had not yet taken shape and was still under the domination of Austria-Hungary, there was sown the idea that Italy should be reborn as a united and self-governed State, and that the domination of Austria-Hungary should be expelled.Garibaldi came forward as a leader of this "resurgence" of the Italian fatherland.

A young composer, Giuseppe Verdi, composed an opera to symbolize Italy under the heel of Austria-Hungary: Nabuco was its name. The Hebrews captured by Nabuco, the Babilonian king, symbolized the Italians under the rule of Austria-Hungary.One hymn of this opera was so moving, that it spread like wildfire among the population. It became impossible to frustrate the resurgence of Italy. Verdi’s hymn is, to this day, the national anthem of Italy.

This is silver’s second flag: national union, with a consciousness of our own worth, our own culture and our independence. A national consolidation will take place when we once again take up silver, our ancestral money.

However, there is another still greater flag for silver:

Silver turned into Mexican money, circulating in parallel with paper money, no matter how insignificant the importance of that small amount of silver in the nation’s economy, means that Mexicans will always remember that silver can actually be used as real, honest money. And that as the years pass, it will always be there, inviting us to use it in the most dangerous and dark times that may come.Silver in circulation will serve to remind us that it is possible for a society to use silver and benefit from the use of real money, honest money.

Otherwise, it is possible that we may forget this, as has happened to many nations in the world.

When Mexico monetizes silver, it will become a lighthouse of hope for the world, a light that shows the way out of the swamp of slavery and perpetual impoverishment that comes with paper money.Paper money, which is today the only kind of money in the world, ensures economic and therefore political control over the populations that use it. The planet’s banking caste that issues paper money and virtual, electronic money, threatens to become the sovereign power through the fictitious money it issues, and aspires to dominate all humanity.

The outcome of paper money is the dehumanization of the human race.

This is silver’s third and most important flag: the cause of humanity.

Silver’s flags, therefore, are three:

The flag of people’s savings.
The flag of national union.
The flag of the preservation of men, from dehumanization.

The silver coin as money: an idea that has taken life and will not be suppressed.(This article, translated by the author, appeared in Spanish on the 11th of December, 2004, in "La Jornada", a Mexico City newspaper.)
Website for Hugo Salinas Price:http://www.plata.com.mx/

[verwijderd] 19 december 2004 18:00

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The revolution is gaining steam The Wallace Street Journal By David Bond

Wallace, Idaho – The Silver Revolution now has a full head of steam. When this baby hits the tracks there will be nothing but sparks flying. If you’re not aboard by now, you will have missed the train and have a lot of chasing to do.

The latest passengers to board this train – dare we call it the Silver Bullet? – are the 31 elected governors of the 31 states of the Republic of Mexico who are calling for the re-monetization of silver.

(Read the official announcement, from Hugo Salinas Price, just over to the right of me.)

Mexico is known for two things: silver, and revolutions. The 31 elected governors of Mexico’s 31 states are calling upon Mexico’s federal government to re-monetize silver, to put silver back into this nation’s money. These are guys who agree upon almost nothing else.

Ponder this: Mexico is a nation of 103 million people. Its adult literacy rate is higher than 91 percent. Forty million of its citizens are under the age of 18. A Mexican child born in 2003 can expect to live at least 74 years. This is not evidence of some easily dismissible third-world country.

Yet Mexico struggles under an inflation rate of 16 percent. (I wonder what our rate truly is.) Its current economic fates depend entirely upon the goodwill and honesty of the United States banking system, because the peso, as throughout all of Central and South America’s currencies, is valued in terms of US Fednotes.

Mr. Salinas Price wrote, back in 2002, of Mexico’s mounting frustration with the US dollar:

"Aristotle stated that everything that exists incorporates matter and form. The dollar, since it became irredeemable for gold at $35 dollars an ounce in August of 1971, is an abstraction that only maintains form, without matter. Therefore, it is nothing.

"The whole financial edifice of all Latin America is constructed upon these units of nothing, dollars. Our Mexican pesos are derived from…nothing. Can we possibly believe that we can look forward hopefully to an economic future built upon pesos which are derived from dollars, which in turn are nothing? If, someday in the future the history of the Twentieth Century is written truthfully, it will have to record as one of its most important characteristics, the progressive elimination of the "substance" factor from money all over the world.

"The abuse of money creation by the U.S. is not something that produces bad consequences only in the U.S. Since the dollar is our money, because our currency is nothing more than a derivative of the dollar, the abuses in money and credit creation in the U.S. produce serious shocks in Latin America. We have mentioned before, on these pages of the internet (www.plata.com.mx), how credit expansion (debt expansion) in the U.S. produces the export of monetary inflation to our countries, and forces the devaluation of our currency-derivatives, the destruction of internal savings denominated in such derivatives, the destruction of financial systems with the high interest rates that come about as a consequence of devaluations and the collapse of our productive systems."

In other words, our profligate banking practices are the root of Mexico’s inflation and a corruption of its republican democracy, of its very humanity. Silver is Mexico’s way out of this hegemony. I wish them well.

Salinas Price is a guy who has figured things out. So, apparently, have a number of his 103 million countrymen. Ninety-six percent of viewers of the television network Azteca favor the re-monetization of silver in Mexico. A full-page advertisement taken out by the Journalists’ Club of Mexico City and signed by 176 of my peers also endorsed silver’s return to Mexico’s money.

And just as silver is Mexico’s way out of the hegemony of the U.S. banking system, it is also ours, here in America. We were a free people and prosperous people until they took our wealth away. Only with paper dollars can a bank confiscate your wealth, your net worth. Do you want those things back? Then demand silver in your coins.

The re-monetizing of silver is a done deal. Because what the United Snakes is doing to Mexico, we’re also doing to Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, all of Central America – and Japan and China. Why do you think the Europeans went to Euros? It was kind of their way of saying, No Thanks.

Even our hugely vaunted military cannot put out that many revolutions should they come in rapid fire. India clings for dear life to silver and if they hang on for even a bit longer, it will be India calling the shots in the Far East. China’s use of the dollar is a convenience, to keep the loading-dock prices at Wal-Mart down, but when they go out selling serious action, like a rifle factory or a car plant, they’ll want silver and they’ll expect to pay in the same.

America has in its hubris imagined a planet peopled by people who are weaker and stupider than we are.

This is really not so, although it is informed by a congenital disinclination on our part to – as the seniors at the Phi Delt house at Willamette used to say to the pledges– "get around and meet the members." Fewer than 20 percent of all Americans at a high estimate, the lowest 7 percent, even possess a passport, compared to about 90 percent of Europeans. And getting a U.S. passport is considerably more difficult than getting a visa to travel to Russia or China.

But that’s OK, because we watch on average 7 hours of television per day, sufficient to give us our world view – at least by Dan Rather’s lights. Our low passport numbers are of no small interest to the Motherland Security fascists, who are making it ever more difficult for Americans to travel overseas. So we do not hear the rumblings of our foreign neighbours, who in increasing chorus cry for the overthrow of their overseers – us.

Let us ponder, in the context of the Iraq War, the words again of Mr. Salinas Price writ two years before we embarked upon this bizarre mission: "When the First World War broke out in 1914, some observers thought that it could not go on for very long, because the reserves of gold would soon run out and it would be impossible to carry on the war for a lack of funds. Little did these people imagine that governments would keep right on warring, without gold, just printing money – counterfeiting money – in the amounts required by the war."

Is there a minor coincidence that world wars and fiat currency came into being (and went away) at about the same time in history? That the ancient Romans went out to make Empire at about the same time they infused lead and zinc into their coins? That before Franklin Roosevelt waged his campaign against Europe he first confiscated Europe’s gold? That the conclusion of the American War Between the States was effected by the South’s ineffectual efforts to issue scrip, because the North had the gold? That in every major war, one of the chief elements of each side’s campaign was to introduce counterfeit currency into the economy of its opponent, a thing you can only do with paper?

That when silver, or for that matter gold, are the only means of measure, when fiat currency is eschewed, that wars are few and the predations of one nation against another are almost nonexistent? Perhaps for the simple reason that when people in any country are getting paid for their work, and for what they’re worth, they are peaceful?

The actions of Hugo

[verwijderd] 21 december 2004 08:13

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Germany holding onto central bank gold
By Tim Wood
20 Dec 2004 at 04:03 PM

Gold prices rose to a one-week high in New York after Germany's Bundesbank, the world's second- largest gold holder, disclosed plans to sell less bullion than expected under an agreement with 14 other central banks.

The Bundesbank will sell just eight tons of the 120 tons of gold coins (sic) permitted in the first year of the agreement, board member Hans-Helmut Kotz said in an interview. Gold has risen 76 percent from a 20-year low in 1999 partly because the banks agreed to limit annual sales to 400 tons through 2004.

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21.12.2004 08:38:00 GMT
Bank of China is approved to launch individual gold trading

The Bank of China (BOC) officially announced it has received full approval from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) to launch individual gold trading. The BOC was also granted permission to start spot gold trading for individual clients, an official surnamed Miao with the press department of the BOC confirmed to Interfax. The bank is one of the four leading state-owned commercial banks in China.

In contrast to the China Merchants Bank (CMB), which has China's largest individual gold trading network, the BOC does not sell gold bars but Olympic themed gold products.

According to the announcement of the BOC, as a sponsor for Beijing 2008 Olympic Game, the BOC will sell gold products with the theme of the Olympic Games, "to promote the Olympic spirit to the Chinese people" and provide an opportunity for customers to collect and invest in gold products, which could be regarded as type of gold trading. Clients can also sell those gold products back to the BOC to make profits. However, the announcement did not explain procedures for spot gold trading.

The BOC has actually already started trial operation of individual gold trading in its Shanghai Branch at the end of 2003, using the "Huang Jin Bao" system, meaning Gold Passbook. However, "Huang Jin Bao" is a type of virtual gold trading without real gold involved, operating on a passbook system where purchases and sales of gold are recorded in a ledger but no actual gold changes hands. Each transaction must be at least 10 grams of gold.

When asked whether the BOC was cooperating with any gold producer to supply the individual market, Miao declined to disclose any information. The China Merchants Bank (CMB) works with Gaosai'er Gold & Silver Co., Ltd (Gaosai'er) to sell Gaosai'er gold bars. "Gaosai'er has no intention in collaborating with the BOC to sell gold bars right now, " an official with the PR department of Gaosai'er declared to Interfax.

However, he revealed that the BOC would introduce "Huang Jin Bao" trading format, not the Olympic gold products as its main trading form around the country, as the Shanghai Branch of the BOC had used the "Huang Jin Bao" system for almost a year.

Actually, the BOC will continue to authorize other branches to launch "Huang Jin Bao" style trading in the following months, including Beijing in January 2005, according to information from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).

Although the CMB has a larger network, the BOC was actually the first bank be authorized by the CBRC to conduct individual trading. "The BOC was the only bank to be granted gold trading (to companies) before 2001. After the BOC, other banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were permitted," Miao said.

[verwijderd] 27 december 2004 11:45

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Is gold headed for its longest rally since the Nixon years?

By Laura Humble Bloomberg News Service Monday, December 27, 2005

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000...

LONDON -- Gold prices, already near a 16-year high, may be
headed for the longest rally since Richard Nixon was U.S.
president as a falling dollar and renewed concern about
inflation boost bullion's appeal as an investment.

The precious metal has climbed since 2001 to about $442
an ounce as U.S. budget and trade deficits widened to
records under President George W. Bush. Gold last rose
five straight years from 1970 to 1974, when inflation peaked
at an annual rate of 12 percent, five times the current pace.

"The cycle now is just like the 1970s," Frank Holmes, chief
executive of U.S. Global Investors Inc. in San Antonio, said
in a telephone interview. The firm manages $1.8 billion,
including gold-mining stocks and bullion. "Inflation isn't as
high, but that may take some time to emerge."

Gold for immediate delivery will sell for an average price of
$435 an ounce next year, about 6 percent more than this
year, based on the median estimate of 37 traders,
investors, and analysts from Sydney to New York surveyed
by Bloomberg this month. Forecasts ranged from $395 to
$550.

"With growing demand and less supply, prices are bound
to rise," said Graham Birch, who helps manage about $6.5
billion in mining assets for Merrill Lynch & Co. in London.
Gold reached $456.89 on Dec. 2, the highest since June 1988.

Gold fell to a 20-year low of $251.95 on Aug. 25, 1999,
about eight months after the euro's introduction. The dollar
has slid 60 percent against the 12-nation currency since
July 2001, touching a record low of $1.35 on Dec. 23.

The slide prompted some investors to buy
dollar-denominated metals as a hedge against declines in
U.S. securities. Stocks are down for the period, even after
gains the past two years. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average has dropped 5 percent and the Standard & Poor's
500 is 12 percent lower.

"The situation is extremely analogous to what happened
after Nixon was elected," said John Embry, chief investment
strategist at Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management Inc.,
in a telephone interview. "Stocks got swiped and gold jumped
up."

Embry co-manages the C$296 million ($241 million) Sprott
Gold and Precious Minerals Fund, which holds about 10
percent bullion and 90 percent precious-metals mining stocks.
The fund has more than tripled since it started in November
2001. It's down 20 percent this year.

The Merrill Lynch Gold & General Fund, which had beaten
the Dow and S&P 500 since 2000, has fallen 15 percent.
The dollar's slump has driven up costs for companies that
mine in South Africa, Australia, and Canada and cut profits
from sales of metal in dollars.

This decade's gold rally hasn't been as pronounced as the
Nixon-era one. Gold's gains accelerated in the five years
through 1974, with annual increases building from 6.5
percent to 72 percent. This year prices have risen about 6
percent, slowing from 19 percent last year and 25 percent
in 2002.

"Gold will be a horribly boring instrument next year," said
Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter newsletter in
Suffolk, Virginia.

The Dow fell 40 percent during the last two years of the
1970s gold rally, after higher spending on the Vietnam War
and social programs turned the federal budget surplus into
a deficit and fueled inflation. A growing trade gap forced the
United States to stop redeeming dollars for gold in 1971.
The metal, fixed at $35 an ounce since 1946, ended 1974
at $140.25.

Inflation erodes returns from fixed-income securities, driving
some U.S. investors to put their cash into
dollar-denominated metals. The Federal Reserve increased
its benchmark overnight lending rate five times this year to
2.25 percent to keep inflation in check. Consumer prices
excluding food and energy rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate
in the year's first 10 months.

U.S. deficits, meanwhile, are bigger than ever in dollar terms,
forcing Americans to borrow more from abroad and
contributing to the dollar's drop. The budget gap was $412.6
billion in the year ended Sept. 30 after Bush cut taxes and
the U.S. spent more on Iraq and domestic security.

The current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade
and investment, widened to $164.7 billion in the three
months through September.

"The dollar will remain weak as long as Bush is in office,"
said Ko Young-Sang, manager at Shinhan Bank's
currencies and derivatives department in Seoul. "He has to
solve the twin deficits and he's not going to take his hands
off Iraq."

[verwijderd] 28 december 2004 10:20

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Crisis Thinking - Crisis Acting- Crisis Occurring

Monday, December 27, 2004, 5:53:00 PM EST Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair

Now that the US dollar is trading below its 1995 low for the second time around, it’s fair to say that the world’s reserve currency has entered a crisis situation. Assuming a close below .8000, that crisis situation will manifest itself further by way of a "freefall" in the US dollar.

Today, the Body Economic has no alarm system inherent in its basic construction. So a crisis will never be identified until the damage done is irreversible which is very much the case right now. Gone are currency parities, the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio and financial statesmen like former Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker.

Also gone is the ethical behavior of governments and business, most of whom have fallen totally to the siren songs of material wealth, men like Eisenhower and Truman, and the spirit of Adams, Hamilton and Jefferson.

So why should the US dollar rise like a Phoenix from its own ashes unless things fundamentally change?

I can clearly recall the 1965 TV address by President Johnson as he increased US armed forces in Vietnam from 75,000 to 125,000, declaring a state of emergency at the time. This was to be a "temporary" deployment that was necessary to defend the government of South Vietnam and a supposedly fledgling "democracy." It was also required in order to train the South Vietnamese army which would in time defend itself.

I do recall the impact that this temporary and ultimately permanent deployment had on the US dollar. However, I do not recall a period when the US Federal budget was in such dire straights without any policy in place or on the horizon that has the ability to reverse the triple deficits.

Also, I do not recollect a period when strong currency policy battle lines were drawn by the most powerful individuals in the world and the currency of that country failed to rally for more than a day.

The question that begs to be asked is whether or not the world actually believes that US military action in two countries with no history of democracy - or military forces that can defend against anything - constitutes a situation whereby a clearly defined exit strategy is even possible. Does the world see Afghanistan and Iraq as long term and potentially permanent drains on the fiscal and military resources of the USA?

What we are seeing today is an appalling indifference by Americans to economic issues that affect the US economy and the consequences we will all face because of that indifference.

An example of the attitude bred by all the above is the three minutes given by most US news media today to the death of more than 21,000 people in a natural catastrophe and the 12 minutes given to how you can exchange your gift certificates or sell them on a new web site.

The pubic in the US simply does not care about anything but themselves, their pocketbooks and their personal pleasures.

However, there is an axiom in the marketplace amongst professionals which dictates that extreme caution is to be practiced at that point wherein a full-blown crisis can - and by the discipline both of fundamental as well as technical analysis - will occur.

No new positions are to be assumed as the US dollar does the unthinkable and plumbs the point of NO return at USDX .8000.

You must use at least one of the lessons I have spent years trying to teach you - the protection of a simple trend line. If there is no defense of the US dollar at .8000, when it breaks it is simply not coming back.

Hold your long gold positions and short US dollar positions as long as the power downtrend remains intact for traders.

Hold your gold and gold share positions for investors as long as the primary uptrend in gold bullion remains intact.

Ignore all pundits and let the market tell you what to do!

How much harder could I have emphasized this point than by offering publicly to guarantee your risk in owning the real thing? I do not believe anyone has ever done that in the past nor will anyone have the courage to do that in the future. So to those who love to detract all I can say is "In your ear."

Simply stated, THIS IS IT as we approach the point of NO RETURN. Those who are not prepared now have missed their low risk opportunity as preparing now is professionally incorrect.

[verwijderd] 29 december 2004 12:56

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Yes, But The Paper Standard James Grant, 01.10.05, 12:00 AM ET

A strong currency is the Old Maid of the monetary deck. Nobody wants it. So don't own currencies if you can help it. More From James Grant

In the red-letter year of 1986 the United States became a net debtor: The value of foreign-owned assets in the U.S. topped (by a small margin) the value of American-owned assets outside the U.S. Thomas Gale Moore, a member of Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, said not to worry. "We can pay off anybody by running a printing press, frankly, so it's not clear to me how bad [a net debtor status] is," he declared.

Maybe we are going to find out. Foreigners now own $2.4 trillion more of us than we do of them. The U.S. current account is in deficit in a sum equivalent to 5.7% of U.S. gross domestic product. The dollar is in a bear market. The dollar printing press to which Moore so lightly alluded is working overtime.

Reading about the greenback, you have probably encountered the word "system," as in "monetary system." And there is a system--a "complex unity formed of many often diverse parts subject to a common plan or serving a common purpose," to borrow fromWebster's.

But it isn't your father's or your grandfather's monetary system, much less your great-grandfather's. Your great-grandfather's system was the gold standard, under which the money supply was regulated by movements in the quantity of monetary gold.

Then came the ersatz gold standard, also known as Bretton Woods, under which the money supply was supposed to be regulated, or influenced, by movements in monetary gold (but really wasn't). President Richard Nixon put this fake gold standard out of its misery in 1971. Next up was the pure paper standard, under which the money stock is positively not regulated or influenced by anything on the periodic table of the elements. And it shows.

You don't have to be a goldbug to acknowledge the deficiencies of the post-gold-standard monetary arrangements. The lack of a check on money printing has brought us to our present state, a state in which a deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Li Ruogu, can upbraid the U.S. for financial mismanagement and lay fair claim to some of the facts. "The savings rate in China is more than 40%," Li told the Financial Times in November. "In the U.S. it is less than 2%. So the problem is that they spend too much and save too little."

Li was too kind. Americans save just about zero. Foreigners do their saving (and investing) for them. The U.S. imports merchandise and exports dollars. The dollars, now unwanted by the foreign vendors who earn them, pile up on the balance sheets of foreign central banks, chiefly Asian ones.

With these dollars the Asian bankers buy U.S. government securities. They buy more than that. They buy export growth and employment growth. By buying dollars, they suppress the rise in the value of their own currencies. From the American vantage point, no sweeter system could be devised.

The hallmark of the classical gold standard was the prompt adjustment of international payments imbalances. The hallmark of the pure paper standard is the indefinite postponement of international payments imbalances. Under the gold standard, a deficit country, if it persisted in its deficit, would eventually run out of gold. Under the pure paper standard, a deficit country, if it's the U.S., can keep right on printing money.

That is, it can keep on printing until its creditors cry: "Uncle!" The New York Fed estimates that, at year-end 2003, foreign central banks held $2.1 trillion in dollar-denominated securities, "equivalent to more than half of marketable Treasury debt outstanding."

Is it so far-fetched to wonder if these central banks might decide one day that they own too much? Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan himself has so speculated.

Speaking in Frankfurt on Nov. 19, the Maestro conceded that "net claims against residents of the U.S. cannot continue to increase forever in international portfolios at their recent pace. Net debt service cost, though currently still modest, would eventually become burdensome. At some point diversification considerations will slow and possibly limit the desire of investors to add dollar claims to their portfolios." Here was the central banking equivalent of an insider sale.

As I write, Japanese and European authorities are deploring the unwanted appreciation of the yen and the euro. They are weighing joint intervention to stop it.

Such talk underscores a vital fact. In 2005 a strong currency is the Old Maid of the monetary deck. Nobody wants it, not even George W. Bush.

But I observe that the universal yearning for weak currencies is tantamount to a yearning for a strong gold price. I believe that these complementary longings will be fulfilled. Count me as bullish on gold--still.

James Grant is the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Visit his homepage at www.forbes.com/grant.

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AB InBev	2	5.529
Abionyx Pharma	2	29
Ablynx	43	13.356
ABN AMRO	1.582	51.890
ABO-Group	1	22
Acacia Pharma	9	24.692
Accell Group	151	4.132
Accentis	2	267
Accsys Technologies	23	10.795
ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES PLC	218	11.686
Ackermans & van Haaren	1	192
ADMA Biologics	1	34
Adomos	1	126
AdUX	2	457

Adyen	14	17.772
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Aegon	3.258	322.987
AFC Ajax	538	7.088
Affimed NV	2	6.300
ageas	5.844	109.897
Agfa-Gevaert	14	2.061
Ahold	3.538	74.343
Air France - KLM	1.025	35.239
AIRBUS	1	12
Airspray	511	1.258
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AkzoNobel	467	13.046
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Almunda Professionals (vh Novisource)	651	4.251
Alpha Pro Tech	1	17
Alphabet Inc.	1	408
Altice	106	51.198
Alumexx ((Voorheen Phelix (voorheen Inverko))	8.486	114.826
AM	228	684
Amarin Corporation	1	133
Amerikaanse aandelen	3.837	243.579
AMG	971	134.069
AMS	3	73
Amsterdam Commodities	305	6.740
AMT Holding	199	7.047
Anavex Life Sciences Corp	2	491
Antonov	22.632	153.605
Aperam	92	15.029
Apollo Alternative Assets	1	17
Apple	5	384
Arcadis	252	8.789
Arcelor Mittal	2.034	320.878
Archos	1	1
Arcona Property Fund	1	286
arGEN-X	17	10.342
Aroundtown SA	1	221
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Ascencio	1	28
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ATAI Life Sciences	1	7
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Athlon Group	121	176
Atrium European Real Estate	2	199
Auplata	1	55
Avantium	32	13.728
Axsome Therapeutics	1	177
Azelis Group	1	66
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