AMG Critical Materials N.V. NL0000888691

Bushveld

1. Patience 30 september 2020 15:13

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   quote:

   Jurist schreef op 30 september 2020 15:06:

   www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/
   

   nu AMG nog.;-)
2. Zembla 4 oktober 2020 15:28

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   Het onderstaande vraag/antwoord overzicht geeft een heel goed beeld van waar Bushveld mee bezig is en nu staat. Daarnaast zijn er genoeg aanknopingspunten te vinden met AMG, het gaat immers om Vanadium. Het overzicht is gemaakt door Lionel (LionelGreen) op het LSE BMN forum. Alle credits gaan uiteraard naar hem. Hierbij ook een link naar deel 1 van 8 (het kan op LSE niet in een startpost gezet worden en daarom is het daar over 8 posts verdeeld, wat dat betreft is IEX super!)
   
   www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTick...
   
   "
   I offer an attempted "big picture" of BMN and its prospects. The aim is to help orient new investors to the company, and newcomers to this board.
   
   Q1. What is BMN?
   A. One of the world's top three (primary) vanadium miners/producers, with some of the world's biggest high-purity vanadium deposits (in the Bushveld area of South Africa). Production is ongoing, and is already very profitable, and the company has ambitious plans to increase production and sales, and to diversify.
   
   Q2. What is vanadium?
   A. An element used (at present) primarily for strengthening steel, used in large (and increasing) quantities in the manufacturing and construction industry (as rebar).
   Vanadium is actually very common in the Earth's crust (the 20th most abundant element), but sources of sufficiently high concentration to extract economically are more limited. Demand for vanadium is expected to rise strongly over the coming years with the ongoing take-up of vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs).
   
   Q3. Context: who are the other major vanadium miners?
   A. Principally Glencore's Rhovan in South Africa and Largo's Maracas Menchen mine in Brazil. Various others are under development or consideration.
   In addition to primary sources, vanadium is also produced (mainly in China and Russia) from steel smelter s-l-a-g, but with issues such as supply and pollution.
   
   Q4. What are BMN's vanadium resources and processing facilities?
   A. They comprise (see company www site):
   * Vametco, an integrated mine and processing facility: the mine is opencast, along a strike of approximately 3.5 km. It produces a steel-alloying vanadium carbon nitride product, called Nitrovan.
   * Vanchem: a primary low-cost vanadium processing facility, producing vanadium pentoxide, ferrovanadium, vanadium chemicals and it is capable of producing vanadium trioxide.
   * Mokopane: one of the world’s largest primary vanadium resources, foreseen as a primary source of feedstock for Vanchem. The long-term plan is to develop Mokopane into a standalone integrated mine and processing plant.
   * Brits: prospecting rights and a mining right under application on farms adjacent to Vametco. Brits has the potential to supply additional feed tonnage for the Vametco plant, and if required, concentrate feed for Vanchem.
   Presently, BMN produces 3400 mtV (metric tonnes of vanadium) per year, and has short-term plans to triple this to more than 8400 mtV, compared with the total global vanadium production in 2019 of around 110,000 mtV.
   
   Q5. What underpins BMN's share price?
   A. BMN's position as a low-cost vanadium producer, at a time when vanadium is in structural deficit, with the company's ambitious plans for increased production at a time when world-wide building (e.g. earthquake-proofing) regulations are expected to lead to an increased demand in future (e.g. in China, and elsewhere).
   
   Q6. What about energy storage and Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFB)?
   A. A key bottleneck in the take-up of renewable energy is the problem of large-scale grid energy storage, because power is (of course) also needed when energy (wind or solar) is not being generated, while storing large quantities of electric energy is very challenging. Large-scale battery technologies embrace the better-known Li-ion systems, as well as vanadium (and other) flow batteries. Other energy storage technologies considered include pumped hydro, liquid air, and compressed air.
   
   Vanadium has particular properties (related to its four adjacent oxidation states) that make it a unique battery storage electrolyte - allowing indefinite charge/discharge cycles with no degradation, and (unlike Li-ion systems) with no intrinsic fire risks. VRFBs are scaleable, and the vanadium can be recycled or re-used as required. Although presently not as well-known as Li-ion batteries, the technology is well proven, with big storage systems ongoing and planned - driven by the climate emergency.
   
   An important development in the ongoing uptake in VRFB technology is the possibility of renting out the vanadium electrolyte - the electrolyte constitutes a significant upfront cost if treated as a capital expenditure, while the vanadium is considered fully recyclable/re-usable indefinitely into the future (say, in 10-20 years). Note that these batteries are characterised both by their maximum energy output (measured in kW or MW), as well as their total contained power (measured in kWh or MWh). China's Dalian 200MW/800MWh grid-scale battery, for example, can provide 200MW for 4~hours.
   
   Q7. Wouldn't higher vanadium prices be better for the company's profits?
   A. Yes and no. Vanadium prices have been historically rather volatile, but the presently perceived structural deficit is considered likely to lead to higher prices in the future. Higher vanadium prices would increase the profit per kg sold, while lower prices will act as a barrier for other mines to come on-stream. Higher prices may limit the speed of take-up for its large-scale grid energy storage applications.
   
   Q8. Any particular examples of these VRFBs?
   A. Near-term prospects for vanadium battery take-up are particularly advanced in China, and in South Africa (related to the ongoing Eskom plans). The former includes the close-to-completion Dalian 200MW/800MWh grid-scale battery, with two more, each of 250MW/1000MWh, planned for 2020-21.
   Poster @mogwhy maintains a regularly updated list of the major VRFB projects around the world. His latest update (16-08-20) identified 14 across China, S. Africa, Australia, and Japan, together requiring a total of around 30,000 tonnes of Vanadium (based on 4.5 tonnes of V per MWh).
   Manufacturing capacity for VRFBs is also expanding with the recent announcement of a 3GWh manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia.
   
   Q9. Anything closer to home?
   Invinity Energy Systems plc (AIM:IES) is a manufacturer of vanadium flow batteries for the large-scale energy storage requirements of businesses, industry and electricity networks. It was formed earlier in 2020 from the merger of Avalon Battery Corporation (US) and redT energy (UK), and supported by funding from BMN. Invinity is involved in the Oxford Superhub, where it aims to deliver a 2MW/5MWh flow storage battery to complete a 52MW lithium-flow hybrid.
   
   Other significant players, underlining the future potential of VRFBs, include Cellcube, H2, Rongke Power, Sumitomo, UniEnergy Technology, VoltStorage, VRB Energy and Vionx.
   
3. Zembla 4 oktober 2020 15:29

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   Q10. What's all the talk about Eskom?
   A. Eskom is a South African electricity public utility, the largest producer of electricity in Africa. In 2019, it was announced that Eskom was to be split up into three distinct nationally owned entities due to huge debts and poor reliability of supply. This poor reliability is leading to various substantial initiatives to develop independent power production, and large-scale energy storage systems. Trial VRFB systems have been delivered by China's Rongke Power are are under commissioning. Major related contracts are being tendered with Eskom at this time, and by the end of 2020 there should be better visibility of BMN's involvement going forward. These are expected to lead to the rollout of VRFB systems to support substantial new wind and solar power generation in South Africa assisted by World Bank funds. The World Bank is meanwhile embarking on a $5billion 17,500GWh battery storage programme.
   
   Q11. Management and posters talk about BMN targeting "vertical integration". What does this mean?
   A. BMN is positioning itself as a major company which:
   (a) mines, extracts, and sells a significant and rising fraction of the world's vanadium;
   (b) is developing a substantial manufacturing facility in South Africa (in the East London Industrial Development Zone, ELIDZ) to provide the high-purity electrolyte to be used in VRFBs;
   (c) is linking up with VRFB manufacturers to establish large-scale energy storage systems (batteries).
   
   Q12. Why do investors like the company's finances?
   A. It's cash-generative, with (essentially) no debt; net cash end June 2019 was $66.1M (SP Angel broker note, 30-09-19)
   * 2019H1: EBITDA $41m, post-tax-profit $30.8m (SP Angel broker note, 30-09-19)
   * indicative P/E, and EV/EBIT, around 4-5 (see other posts for many other details and discussions)
   * 2020H1: EBITDA was -$1m as a result of the lockdown, lower ferro-vanadium prices and delayed payment for sales into China which will now fall into 2020H2 (SP Angel morning view, 30-09-20)
   
   Q13. Why do investors like the management (Fortune Mojapelo, CEO of Bushveld Minerals; and Mikhail Nikomarov, Chief Executive of Bushveld Energy)?
   A. Experienced, proven track record, excellent strategists, with ambitious plans. They accomplish what they announce, in what are often viewed as masterful deals, and take appropriate salaries.
   Recent interviews with CEO Fortune Mojapelo:
   * 09-11-19: www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3QUjIL1rJQ&a... (post Vanchem confirmation)
   * 04-02-20: www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/02/04/... (Mining Indaba)
   * 16-02-20: www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_uMw4wmdjw&a... (Mining Weekly)
   * 07-05-20: www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5eb2c08...
   * 14-07-20: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX_WdScGDVw&a... (Crux interview)
   * 16-07-20: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltxAmE9vxX4&a...
   
   Q14. What valuation do the analysts/brokers suggest?
   A. Recent (but not necessarily the latest) broker notes, which contain many details of vanadium price and energy storage assumptions, etc:
   SP Angel - target: 80p
   BMO Capital - target: 55p
   Peel Hunt - target: 45p
   ARC - target: 43p
   
   Q15. Why is the SP at current levels (around 11p) if prospects are so good? It was at 49p at the end of 2018, right?
   A. This is considered to be a combination of many things, in no particular order:
   * a general lack of awareness of the strategic importance/prospects for vanadium and especially VRFBs;
   * recent decrease in vanadium price from its latest peak in 2018;
   * the company's LSE AIM listing;
   * shares issued in placement last year are still (probably) being sold into the market;
   * inclusion of the Imaloto coal project (Madagascar), which may exclude the company from green portfolios;
   * accumulation and other tactics of market makers;
   * South African geopolitics and associated credit rating;
   * limited in-depth research by analysts on small companies;
   
   Common views by long-term PIs here are:
   * this is a well-run company with big projects and big ambitions, and these take time to put in place
   * BMN is currently significantly undervalued
   * no stocks rise continuously, all are subject to sentiment and trading patterns
   * BMN appears to be a great example of Warren Buffet's principles of (a) finding an undervalued company, with what he described as an "enduring competitive advantage", and then (b) waiting until the less-informed or less risk-averse catch up, which is unlikely to be within weeks or even months.
   
   Q16. Suggested further reading:
   A. Company www site:
   www.bushveldminerals.com/
   www.bushveldenergy.com
   
   There is also an independent compilation of a large amount of relevant and updated information maintained by BMN private investors (led by Alfacomp)
   www.thebushveldperspective.com/
   
   Key RNS in the past 18 months:
   * 01-05-19 Acquisition of Vanchem Plant
   * 22-05-19 Vametco Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Update
   * 23-05-19 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2018
   * 21-06-19 Brits Vanadium Maiden Mineral Resource
   * 21-10-19 Mokopane Mining Right Application Granted
   * 01-11-19 Support for redT - Avalon Merger
   * 01-11-19 Strategy for partnering with VRFB companies
   * 07-11-19 Vanchem completion and funding, with associated increase in attributable vanadium output
   * 07-11-19 2019Q3 Operational Update
   * 12-11-19 Potential investment in Enerox GmbH
   * 19-12-19 Update on investment in Enerox GmbH ("Enerox")
   * 20-01-20 Full Year 2019 and Q4 2019 Operational Update
   * 09-03-20 Joint Venture agreement with redT
   * 01-04-20 Bushveld to hold 8.71% of newly created Invinity
   * 04-05-20 Q1 2020 Operational Update
   * 23-06-20 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2019
   * 03-08-20 Investment in Enerox GmbH
   * 02-09-20 Q2 2020 and H1 2020 Operational Update
   * 07-09-20 Vanadium Rental Partnership with Invinity
   * 30-09-20 Financing with Orion and Convertible Loan Note
   * 30-09-20 Interim Results for six months to end-June 2020
   
   Q17. What are BMN's anticipated short-term future developments?
   A. These include:
   * increased production, at Vametco, Vanchem, and Mokopane
   * VRFB commissioning and contracts, including the ongoing Eskom tender
   * progress with their own battery (vanadium) electrolyte plant in South Africa
   * JSE joint listing, ongoing
   * prospects of moving from AIM to the main market
   
4. Zembla 4 oktober 2020 15:29

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   Q18. There are many posters on this board. Where can a newcomer start in understanding their contributions?
   A. There are numerous regular contributors to this board who hold generally very positive views of the company, and whose posts cover many key aspects of BMNs business. They provide their views on aspects including:
   * possible future developments;
   * technology developments and opportunities;
   * commentaries and detailed scrutiny of company RNS;
   * mining and mineralogical aspects;
   * the worldwide vanadium market (and BMN's vanadium shipments);
   * critical assessments of the company's financial and accounting aspects.
   * risks associated with the South African economy more broadly;
   
   For new investors looking at this company, the following posters (amongst many others) have very positive reputations amongst the other bulletin board members:
   Alfacomp: broad understanding of the business, the battery prospects, and provides frequent comments on the share trades
   BigBiteNow: insights into the business model and possible future developments
   Loudspeaker: vanadium price monitoring
   mogwhy: updates of major VRFB projects
   NickDerby: company accounting aspects
   Ophidian: technical aspects and insights of the mining and processing
   Paludina: tracks and reports on the export/shipment of BMN's vanadium products
   Pdub: company and business insights and summaries
   Sanchez599: company and business insights and summaries
   SloppyGuiseppe: posts on relevant worldwide developments
   Tyfoon: South African politics, and where BMN sits in this
   
   My apologies for omissions: there are many other regular and respected posters, contributing their technical, business and corporate insights. It is this collection of accumulated knowledge that has led several on this board to suggest that BMN is the "best independently researched company on AIM".
   
   Q19. What about rampers and ramping?
   A. Do your own research, and form your own opinion.
   
   All bulletin boards will have members who enjoy predicting the next leg up, and setting their own price targets for the next day, week, month, or year, whether based on technical analysis, intuition, or simply optimism. You can - naturally - take these into account, or not, as you wish.
   
   I, and presumably many others here, are invested for the fundamentals and for the medium/long term. Experience has shown that it is difficult if not impossible to predict the next price movements, the short-term SP direction led by the market makers, or the next moves of our respected management.
   
   Q20. Why do some posters (generally transient avatars) spend time de-ramping, i.e. expressing negative views of the company and its prospects?
   A. It is not always easy to understand why those with negative views of a company should spend their time posting about it. Explanations might include investors who bought in at times of share price peaks and who feel aggrieved that they have made poor investment decisions. More likely are those who, as on all boards, presumably post negatively in an attempt to encourage sellers for a variety of trading reasons (day traders, stop-loss fishers, shorters, competitors, etc).
   
   De-rampers and trolls are usually recognisable by their unsubstantiated and poorly researched statements, an absence of factual evidence, repetitive posts on minor aspects, personal attacks, and frequently poor syntax.
   
   Generally, this is a board that welcomes new and genuine BMN investors attracted by its prospects, but it does respond robustly to those believed to be trying to manipulate the share price downwards.
   
   Q21. In a few words?
   A. BMN is a very well-run company, with impressive assets, and exciting prospects.
   
   I hope that this summary will provide newcomers with some pointers to allow them to make their own assessment of the company and its prospects.
   
   Cordially
   Lionel
   “
   
5. Zembla 22 oktober 2020 09:12

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   Het aandeel is net begonnen aan een flinke stijging. De grootaandeelhouder die de stukken kwijt wilde/moest, is uitverkocht. De weg naar boven ligt open.
6. [verwijderd] 22 oktober 2020 09:17

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   quote:

   Zembla schreef op 22 oktober 2020 09:12:

   Het aandeel is net begonnen aan een flinke stijging. De grootaandeelhouder die de stukken kwijt wilde/moest, is uitverkocht. De weg naar boven ligt open.
   

   Ik ben alvast opgelucht dat het inderdaad bleek te kloppen dat de koers 'gedrukt' werd door verkooporders. De bewering dat dit 'marktmanipulatie' was, blijkt gelukkig onwaar.
   
   Ik zit in elk geval serieus long in dit aandeel.
7. [verwijderd] 18 december 2020 10:50

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   Dit begint hier eindelijk wat te bougeren.
   Ook technisch is hij vandaag door de weerstand gebroken. Zie eenvoudige technische analyse op:
   www.lynx.be/kennis/grondstoffen/20201...
   
8. [verwijderd] 22 december 2020 13:20

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   toch bijzonder wat de combinatie van TA en fundamenteel nieuws kan bereiken:
   nl.investing.com/equities/bushveld-mi...
9. [verwijderd] 22 december 2020 13:24

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   Dit is het eerste aandeel waarvan ik nu eens écht overtuigd bent dat het zot ondergewaardeerd is:
   1. ze maken winst
   2. hun business is toekomstgericht (refloxbatteries), en er is dus groei te verwachten
   3. De koers winstverhouding is er niet één zoals van typische 'veelbelovende' bedrijven (bv. docusign, beyond meat, tesla, enz...), maar gewoonweg een KW van 8 (!).
   
   Het kan toch niet zijn dat de markt dit niet ziet?
10. DeZwarteRidder 24 december 2020 12:21

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    quote:

    Jurist schreef op 22 december 2020 13:24:

    Dit is het eerste aandeel waarvan ik nu eens écht overtuigd bent dat het zot ondergewaardeerd is:
    1. ze maken winst
    2. hun business is toekomstgericht (refloxbatteries), en er is dus groei te verwachten
    3. De koers winstverhouding is er niet één zoals van typische 'veelbelovende' bedrijven (bv. docusign, beyond meat, tesla, enz...), maar gewoonweg een KW van 8 (!).
    Het kan toch niet zijn dat de markt dit niet ziet?
    

    Ik ben blij dat je niet voor mij werkt als jurist, want Bushfeld verdient niks met vanadium.
    In 2019 hadden ze een eenmalige winst van ca 60 miljoen en dus maakte Bushfeld in werkelijkheid vrijwel geen winst.
    Dit jaar zullen ze waarschijnlijk verlies maken.
    
    En die batterijen kun je voorlopig beter vergeten.
12. [verwijderd] 26 december 2020 16:39

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    Bedankt voor je niet-onderbouwde commentaar. Ik word hierdoor gesterkt om bij te kopen.
13. DeZwarteRidder 26 december 2020 18:17

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    quote:

    Jurist schreef op 26 december 2020 16:39:

    Bedankt voor je niet-onderbouwde commentaar. Ik word hierdoor gesterkt om bij te kopen.
    

    Ik zou zeggen: neem een 2e hypotheek.....!!!
    
    Maar als je ook maar een greintje verstand had gehad van Bushveld, dan zou je natuurlijk weten dat Bushveld onmogelijk winst kan maken in jaren met een slechte vanadiumprijs.
14. [verwijderd] 27 december 2020 19:23

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    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 26 december 2020 18:17:

    [...]
    Ik zou zeggen: neem een 2e hypotheek.....!!!
    
    

    Er is zoveel mis met deze kleine zin:
    Ten eerste kan ik geen hypotheek nemen. Iemand anders kan eventueel een hypotheek vestigen op mijn huis. Echter, zoals je zelf zegt, komt die andere dan in 2e rang, ervan uitgaande dat ik al een hypotheek heb staan op mijn woning.
    
    Ten tweede heb ik niets aan een extra hypotheek. Het is enkel een hypothecair krediet dat mij eventueel centen bezorgt.
    
    Ten derde, en allerbelangrijkste, insinueer je -op gratuite wijze - dat ik mij in de schulden kan steken door te beleggen met m'n spaargeld. Als je ervan uit gaat dat ik méér kan verliezen dan mijn inzet, zou je beter eens de werking van een aandeel bestuderen.
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 27 december 2020 19:26

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    [Modbreak IEX: Gelieve op de inhoud van uw berichten te letten, bericht is bij dezen verwijderd. Waarschuwing.]
16. DeZwarteRidder 27 december 2020 20:11

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    quote:

    Jurist schreef op 27 december 2020 19:26:

    [...]
    
    In 2019 stond de vanadiumprijs allesbehalve hoog. En zoals je zelf al aanhaalde, maakten ze winst.
    
    Je probeert je stelling kracht bij te zetten door te stellen dat ik 'geen greintje verstand heb van Bushveld'. Dit biedt echter geen toegevoegde waarde, maar trekt louter de aandacht weg van de ononderbouwdheid van jouw uitlatingen.
    
    Als ik zie hoeveel vrijgeleide jij hier op dit forum krijgt, zou je haast gaan denken dat je naar bed gaat met de moderator van dit forum.
    

    In 2019 werd er uitsluitend winst gemaakt door een eenmalige boekwinst.
    
    Iedere belegger weet dat eenmalige winsten niet meetellen voor de K/W.
17. [verwijderd] 28 december 2020 21:19

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    Ik zie het afgelopen half jaar het ene na het andere VRFB-project voorbijkomen, vanadiumprijzen zitten in de lift, uitkomsten Eskom-tenders (400 miljoen dollar) staan voor de deur en de uitbreiding van de productie is gefinancierd. Huidige koers is nog altijd lager dan pre-corona (19,25 Gbx), tot 25 Gbx nauwelijks weerstand. Doe er je voordeel mee.
    
    
18. [verwijderd] 29 december 2020 09:45

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    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 27 december 2020 20:11:

    [...]
    In 2019 werd er uitsluitend winst gemaakt door een eenmalige boekwinst.
    
    Iedere belegger weet dat eenmalige winsten niet meetellen voor de K/W.
    

    De meerderheid van 'iedere belegger' denkt er blijkbaar toch anders over dan jij weergeeft. Bushveld stijgt andermaal fors vandaag.
19. DeZwarteRidder 29 december 2020 09:49

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    quote:

    Jurist schreef op 29 december 2020 09:45:

    [...]De meerderheid van 'iedere belegger' denkt er blijkbaar toch anders over dan jij weergeeft. Bushveld stijgt andermaal fors vandaag.
    

    Die stijging komt niet door jouw foutieve informatieverstrekking.
20. [verwijderd] 6 februari 2021 11:55

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    @DeZwarteRidder: En je bent wel positief over Largo? Potentieel van Bushveld is een stuk groter.
21. DeZwarteRidder 6 februari 2021 11:58

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    Bummerd schreef op 6 februari 2021 11:55:

    @DeZwarteRidder: En je bent wel positief over Largo? Potentieel van Bushveld is een stuk groter.
    

    Dat is de vraag.
    
    Largo is wel erg duur geworden.