Succes schreef op 23 februari 2023 16:54:
Three Possible Futures for the Russia-Ukraine War
The future of Russia-Ukraine war includes the possibility of a protracted conflict with no end in sight.
globelynews.com/russia/when-will-russ...The frontline may be frozen but the battle rages on in Ukraine. In Bakhmut, a town that Moscow views as key to gaining control of the entire Eastern Donbas area, the past weeks have seen military stock shrink fast, and hundreds of troops killed and injured a day, according to U.S analysts.
All, so far, for a stalemate.
This is Ukraine, almost a year on after Russia invaded it on February 24, 2022. Many seasoned “Russia watchers” failed to foresee the conflict, believing Vladimir Putin was merely parking his troops on its border with Ukraine to deter from EU and NATO expansion in its sphere of influence, in a show of “heavy metal diplomacy.” Given the failure to predict the war, is there any chance we could do a better a job of assessing how it might develop?
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We estimate the conflict could pan out in three ways.
Scenario 1: Russia Suffers a Major Setback
Scenario 2: Russia Enjoys Tangible Success
Scenario 3: Protracted War