SNSN schreef op 17 januari 2014 10:35:
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We are changing the “trend” itself (not only sub-trend). But, that would be OK, as consolidation (correction in time) was expected above ~2.70 anyway . So, the change in “trend” (its flattening) itself would not be strange, and has to take place. But, there are some (objective/quant) indications of a possible “top-forming”.
Misleading (contradictory) advises/publications are usually a part of signals. Indeed, “too positive advice” at the possible consolidation level (after hard rising) would allow to “catch” some traders and provide a much more profitable sale of speculative shares at high level. While “negative advice” (at the same time) creates a ground for those “caught” at high level to sell asap taking real losses in order to avoid (possible) imaginary “bigger paper-losses”. That is common among small retailers, but it is actually wrong for undervalued stocks on a rising long-term trend. All these may trigger instability, rising of volatility and generate profit taking with objectives to repurchase lower.... switching (a bit later) to downward trend.
However, a fast price-fall is NOT an objective for “big speculators” as they need to get read of a large amount of “speculative shares” at higher prices as possible. So, they need to keep certain (relatively high) price level for some time. That is why “top-forming” usually takes some time (subject to price/volume distributions during rising), and characterized by increased volatility at almost constant drift.