aex 250 sept 2010 schreef:
Nou Bertus toch iets te voorbarig met de verdere daling ;), toch verwacht ik niet wat Shortie zegt een grote rebound van enkele weken (S&P 1140?) en daarna een daling, maar meer korte rebound tot max. 322, waarna we gegwoon weer lager gaan. Binnen 2 a 3 weken verwacht ik een doorbraak van 296.
Hieronder TA van ETFguide.com
Zij verwachten dat S&P komende 5 dagen beweegt tussen 1090-1122, waarna de daling weer doorgaat. Zij zitten vaak goed.
Snapshot: Tuesday’s regular trading session did not properly reflect the market’s two-day rollercoaster. The first chart below shows that Monday morning (5-24-10), the S&P 500 futures started a steep 4.77% selloff that pushed the S&P futures to its 3am PST low at 1,036.75. The selling turned into buying right at the lower acceleration band (1,040 for the S&P cash index, which trades about four points above the S&P futures). It’s interesting to note that the market found support at the same area as on February 5, 2010 (the second chart of SPX below). It looks like breaking this support is a process, just as tipping over a coke vending machine, it will take some back-and forth rocking. With today’s decline, the S&P reached our first downside target at 1,040 before reversing sharply. The weekly s1 target at 1,003 is still up for grabs. Before we get there however, it is prudent to assess the upside potential for the current move. It’s fairly certain that the S&P will open above pivot at 1,066 tomorrow (5-26-10) and trade from pivot to r1 at 1,090 or r2 at 1,104. There is a chart gap between 1,107 and 1,115 left open on May 20. The 200-day MA slices through 1,103.64 tomorrow. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the secondary May 13 high is at 1,122. This cluster of resistance between 1,090 and 1,122 should be enough to keep the index in check. We shouldn’t forget though that the rally originating from the February lows started in a similar fashion and went on to new highs. At this point, a rally to new highs is a low probability event, but managing profits carefully is the prudent thing to do.