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Insmed, in de gaten houden

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  1. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 16:11

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    Ja Wb wist ik wel, was maar om aan te tonen dat andere ook last hebben van die Amerikaanse broker.

    quote:

    The Wishbone schreef:

    datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/...

    [quote=Jommeke]
    Swissquote is ook nog altijd niet van start gegaan.

    [quote=M.A.D.W.]
    Ik heb net een pittig gesprek gehad met Binck. Ze kunnen er in dit geval niks aan doen, hun amerikaanse broker heeft problemen. Maar ik heb wel gedreigd dat ik misschien weg ga, en dat vele op dit forum er ook zo over denken.
    [/quote]
    [/quote]
  4. welshterrier 5 24 februari 2006 16:52

    • welshterrier 5

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    M.A.D.W, wat denk je van de cijfers van Transmeta?
    Kan je op het tmta draadje reageren als je wilt?
    koers staat nu 1,61 is 1,73 geweest. bedankt
    gr welsh
  6. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 17:58

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    quote:

    M.A.D.W. schreef:

    Ik heb net een pittig gesprek gehad met Binck. Ze kunnen er in dit geval niks aan doen, hun amerikaanse broker heeft problemen. Maar ik heb wel gedreigd dat ik misschien weg ga, en dat vele op dit forum er ook zo over denken.
    Dit alles kunnen ze natuurlijk compenseren door gratis level 2 aan te bieden..

    Maar het blijf natuurlijk super irritant, vooral als bij de koers van GTCB van gister, en dan zal binck maar net crashen die dag..

    Patrick.
  7. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 18:00

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    quote:

    Patrick Holdings schreef:

    [quote=M.A.D.W.]
    Ik heb net een pittig gesprek gehad met Binck. Ze kunnen er in dit geval niks aan doen, hun amerikaanse broker heeft problemen. Maar ik heb wel gedreigd dat ik misschien weg ga, en dat vele op dit forum er ook zo over denken.
    [/quote]

    Dit alles kunnen ze natuurlijk compenseren door gratis level 2 aan te bieden..

    Maar het blijf natuurlijk super irritant, vooral als bij de koers van GTCB van gister, en dan zal binck maar net crashen die dag..

    Patrick.
    is hun amerikaanse broker dus die crasht..
    en als die nog meer geintjes heeft nemen ze een ander
    dus vrees niet
    binck er goed bezig totnutoe met hun groei etc
  8. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 18:00

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    quote:

    Patrick Holdings schreef:

    [quote=M.A.D.W.]
    Ik heb net een pittig gesprek gehad met Binck. Ze kunnen er in dit geval niks aan doen, hun amerikaanse broker heeft problemen. Maar ik heb wel gedreigd dat ik misschien weg ga, en dat vele op dit forum er ook zo over denken.
    [/quote]

    Dit alles kunnen ze natuurlijk compenseren door gratis level 2 aan te bieden..

    Maar het blijf natuurlijk super irritant, vooral als bij de koers van GTCB van gister, en dan zal binck maar net crashen die dag..

    Patrick.
    is hun amerikaanse broker dus die crasht..
    en als die nog meer geintjes heeft nemen ze een ander
    dus vrees niet
    binck er goed bezig totnutoe met hun groei etc
  9. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 18:25

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    quote:

    crackedtooth schreef:

    [quote=Patrick Holdings]
    [quote=M.A.D.W.]
    Ik heb net een pittig gesprek gehad met Binck. Ze kunnen er in dit geval niks aan doen, hun amerikaanse broker heeft problemen. Maar ik heb wel gedreigd dat ik misschien weg ga, en dat vele op dit forum er ook zo over denken.
    [/quote]

    Dit alles kunnen ze natuurlijk compenseren door gratis level 2 aan te bieden..

    Maar het blijf natuurlijk super irritant, vooral als bij de koers van GTCB van gister, en dan zal binck maar net crashen die dag..

    Patrick.

    [/quote]

    is hun amerikaanse broker dus die crasht..
    en als die nog meer geintjes heeft nemen ze een ander
    dus vrees niet
    binck er goed bezig totnutoe met hun groei etc
    Ja dat is lekker want ik had een ingelegde order geannulleerd en is toch verwerkt!!!
  15. [verwijderd] 24 februari 2006 22:32

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    Oke vandaag de draadjes doorgenomen en de achtergronden en bijna vierkante ogen gekregen van het turen naar het scherm maar ik moet zeggen dat wat ik lees me zeker bevalt niet zo revolutionair als Gtc maar wel degelijk en weinig risico en veel potentie tegen een lage koers.

    Heb dus een behoorlijk portie aangeschaft vandaag voor 2.26 nog niet vol want ik wilde ook wat cash overhouden om eventueel nog op lagere niveau's bij te kopen.

    Grtz CV

  19. [verwijderd] 25 februari 2006 06:03

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    Opvrisser

    Onderstaande posting is begin februari al op dit forum geplaatst. Deze posting beantwoord n.m.m. een groot aantal vragen waar we mee zitten, vandaar dat ik ´m nog maar eens naar voren heb gehaald.


    Een van de 'longs', Coinstarz, (hij is ook DE moderator op het i-hub board en vergaart veel van de kennis daar) heeft naar aanleiding van alle vragen die hem werden gesteld op het I-hub board alsook op het Yahoo forum, geprobeerd de Shelf -registratie aan de hand van 12 vragen uit een te zetten.
    ...Ik post hier de 12 vragen die hij stelt, en in volgende post de antwoorden per vraag.
    ...Ik denk dat deze post veel van de paniek weg kan nemen onder de beleggers (lezers) van IEX, Yahoo & I-hub. Blijven er natuurlijk nog tal van andere over, die maandag wel voor die paniek zullen zorgen! Wees op je hoede!

    Geluk, F.

    ==12 vragen naar aanleiding van de Shelf Regsitratie==
    1. Why new S–3 filing, why now?
    2. How does S-3 filing affect share price?
    3. What are other risks?
    4. Do you think the company will be free to release good news from now?
    5. Can other pipeline products roll out since the company has the money now?
    6. What about EMEA (European Agency for Evaluation of Medicinal Products) filing?
    7. When will iPlex be on the market?
    8. Do you think some institution investment funds will buy S-3 shares?
    9. Is my investment in a good hand?
    10. Where does Insmed go?
    11. Another S-3 down the road?
    12. But…what is going to happen on Monday, Feb 6th, 2006?
    Frederik C - 6 feb 06, 11:17 | Reageer | Quote | Zoek | Aanbevolen: 0

    ...Antwoord van Coinstarz op een eider van de 12 vragen...
    ==========================================

    Posted by: coinstarz
    In reply to: None
    Date:2/4/2006 6:24:16 PM
    Post #of 678

    Here are my thoughts after reading S-3 and others opinions. I try to answer my own questions hereinafter.

    1. Why new S–3 filing, why now?

    In need of money.

    Insmed needs money to bring iPlex to the market on schedule (June, 2006 or earlier). Currently, Insmed has $30-40 M cash in hand according to 8-Ks/10Qs. This cash can keep the company operating for 12-18 months based on cash burning rate of $25-28 M annually. If Insmed needs to contract to a third party (manufacturer) to make iPlex, then cash down payment needs to be provided (I don’t know the figure). If no partner or distributor is to help Insmed, the company needs money to sell iPlex to 400+ clinics themselves. Recently, iPlex has hired more than 40-50 employees to bring total number to 100 – 110. If using $60,000 salary per employee including management team, they would need $6.6 M just for salary plus health care coverage for every employee. Also, other phase I/II/III trials need money to keep going. According to published medical data, each subject (phase I/II/III patient) may cost a drug company about $20,000+/- per year. Investigators (doctors) may charge $10,000 to $15,000 per subject, and middle men (between drug company and investigators) may charge approx. $3000 per subject, and data analysis may charge another 1000-3000 to crush the data. It is a very expensive process and time consuming. From Phase I to Phase III, it takes 3-5 years and another 1-2 years to file NDA to FDA. The whole process may take 5-7 years not including pre-trial studies (I heard of FDA is to reform on this). Do you want to do diabetes 1/2 trials? OK, $15,000 per subject for 400 subjects, or $6 M bucks a year. Want to trial a cancer drug? OK, $20,000 per patient for 200 subjects...lists goes on and on. Where does money come from? Form S-3!

    In the worst scenario, Insmed may need $40M cash for this year alone to push iPlex and other clinic trials, then gradually reduces cash burning rate next year and after. If they don’t file S-3 now, they have to do in June and may jeopardize quiet period and other business activities.

    Filing Form S-3 is not an easy process by just filling out the form and sending to SEC electronically. It is a time consuming and complicated process. It involves lawyers, brokerage dealers, underwriters, SEC regulatory review and approval, state regulatory review and approval so on. They need 30-45 days to work out the details and may have to plan this event 6-12 months ahead of schedule. And the CEO (Dr. Allan) has to make 100% sure the money will be there when they need it in later this year or next.

    2. How does S-3 filing affect share price?

    As of Jan 31, 2006, Insmed had 76,756,342 shares of common stock outstanding according to the filing.

    As of November 1, 2005, Insmed had 54,425,460 shares of common stock outstanding according to an 8-K.

    Those 22,330,882 were mainly due to CD selling and part of warrants selling. The company has received around $12M cash and reduced outstanding debt (CD notes) more than 90%.

    Let’s assuming the existing CD selling and warrants slowed dramatically, and the company sells $75M dollar worth stock at 2.15, then 35 (75/2.15) million new shares will get into the common/warrants/preferred. The future diluted OS would be 112 M shares. If the company sells S-3 at higher price, say 2.50, then 30 million new shares would go into the market and bring OS to 107 M.

    LAZARD CAPITAL MARKETS analyst has predicted that fully diluted shares could be 109.5 concerning new S-3 risks.

    Allow me quote Lazard analyst here…” in our view We arrive at our new 12-month price target of $4.00 price by applying a 5.6 enterprise value-to-revenue multiple to our new 2008 iPlex sales estimate of $119 M, discounted two years at 25%, including fully diluted shares of 109.5 million, which assumes a financing in 2006 Risks to our thesis include a delayed launch for iPlex or faster-than-anticipated launch of Increlex…..” (Link provided in ibox beside Lazard logo)

    In a short-term, the PPS may be depressed due to panic selling. In a long term, to be honest, I would not say $4 or $7 or any price target since I am not a licensed analyst. However, I would say PPS would arise much higher than current pps again in 3-6 month.

    3. What are other risks?

    All “fear factors” are described in great details in S-3 filing and they are templated risk factors. The biggest risk factor is lack of Money! $75M will ease this risk.

    iPlex (rhIGF-1/rhIGFBP3) has been approved and accepted by Pediatric Endocrinology society. There is little risk using iPlex to treat respected patients. The safety and side effects are minimal. I would say no risk in iplex drug itself but marketing.

    4. Do you think the company will be free to release good news from now?

    I think there is a “quiet period” (30 days) before a shelf registration. That means the share issuers are prohibited to release any news related share information to promote their stocks. Also, I don’t think any legitimate public traded company would release news to pump stocks and then dump them to shareholders. I know Insmed not. And we have not seen any news related to iplex since Dec 13th, 2005.

    Yes, I believe Insmed PR machine is getting ready.

    5. Can other pipeline products roll out since the company has the money now?

    I think so. That is S-3 all about. iPlex for the treatment of Myotonic Muscular Dystrophy has shown a great potential like Somatokine before. This trial is sponsored by NIH but iPlex has to provide iPlex to the investigator (Dr. Moxley) for all subjects (40). Each subject may cost around $10,000 for iPlex each year for 3 years, or $1.2M to Insmed shareholders. Do they
  20. [verwijderd] 25 februari 2006 06:31

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    Opvrisser (vervolg)

    Do they believe this trial, you bet. This will be the 2nd FDA to be approved application for iPlex.

    Here is an excerpt from form S-3 for all Insmed pipelines.

    “…We believe the commercial opportunities for IPLEX ™ reach beyond the indication of Primary IGFD and that initial approval of IPLEX ™ may offer us an opportunity to enter, in the future when we have conducted full clinical studies, other potentially large markets. These markets include other growth disturbances related to IGF-1 deficiency, severe insulin resistance, diabetes, myotonic dystrophy, HIV associated adipose redistribution syndrome, severe burns, hip fracture and retinopathy of prematurity. It is our intention to initiate clinical studies in a variety of these indications with IPLEX ™ . Based on the results from these studies we will select the next indication to pursue for marketing authorization….”

    6. What about EMEA (European Agency for Evaluation of Medicinal Products) filing?

    Rumors have been around for a while. I have not seen any 8-K yet. I was told (by someone’s email) that the EMEA filing is in progress and may file in April. It could be just another speculation by someone.

    7. When will iPlex be on the market?

    June 2006. According to Dr. Allan CC (last year), he said iplex would be on the market in second quarter. I think it will be earlier than June. April or May? Wait and see.

    8. Do you think some institution investment funds will buy S-3 shares?

    Highly likely. At the current price of 2.30+/-, $75M will be 32.6 M shares. At an average of 2,526,270 shares daily tr
    Frederik C - 6 feb 06, 11:18 | Reageer | Quote | Zoek | Aanbevolen: 0

    ....Vervolg Antwoord Coinstarz op de 12 vragen...
    ===========================================================
    8. Do you think some institution investment funds will buy S-3 shares?

    Highly likely. At the current price of 2.30+/-, $75M will be 32.6 M shares. At an average of 2,526,270 shares daily trading volume, it may need a month (quickest) to complete the transaction. The company has said “This prospectus relates to common stock, preferred stock and warrants that we may sell from time to time in one or more offerings up to an aggregate public offering amount of $75,000,000 (or its equivalent in foreign or composite currencies) on terms to be determined at the time of sale.” If an investment is involved, that could be much faster.

    Also, in S-3 filing, the company did not mention anything about CD, that is a good thing for the company.

    I think a few investment funds will step up to buy shares. How many? It is everyone’s guess.

    I have given an example of ALTH on YMB. ALTH has a good Phase III trial only right now and is in interim reviewing process. It may be a year or so away from FDA filing (not mention approval). However, WP (WARBURG PINCUS PRIVATE EQUITY) has bought 22M shares at 2+/- to support the company. I don’t know the reason but I can guess WP knows something we can understand is that ALTH will/must have a FDA approved drug. By the way, ALTH drug has orphan status and in a limited market. So, why not someone would invest in INSM at bargain price? Insmed has FDA drug and a few pipeline products.

    According to Insmed S-3 filing, no one can buy more than 15% of OS. With new shares flood into market, I guess someone can buy 15-20 M shares without pushing pps too high.

    9. Is my investment in a good hand?

    I am positive. Insmed has been in business for more than 17 years. The researchers spend their two decades to develop iPlex. Do you think they will quit? I know one researcher has spend his entire life in the work since 1970s. They maybe lack of marketing experience, but they are number 1 in IGFBP field. Many big biotech firms fail to develop IGF-1 without higher side effects including Increlex. Insmed developed IGF-1/IGFBP3. The components have been available in the research lab for a long time but no one can combine them together except Insmed.

    10. Where does Insmed go?

    Follow the big successful stories. Genentech, Amgen, Chiron, and many big names. However, I do believe Insmed could be acquired by one of those big biotech Pharm in 5-10 years. Those big boys are not stupid to wait competitions coming. They have to enhance their own pipelines and eliminate competitors. Insmed can meet their desire.

    11. Another S-3 down the road?

    Could be. When we see pps up to 7-10, I think there is one waiting there. When we see pps up to 10-20, there is another one waiting there. I guess there will be 200-400M shares by 2013-2015 (when orphan expired) with market capital of $2-5 Billions.

    12. But…what is going to happen on Monday, Feb 6th, 2006?

    I do not know and don’t care because I cannot do anything about it. Maybe I take one-day vacation perhaps. I may play golf if weather is permitted but I hate golf. What is good about hitting a small white ball and watching it fly to somewhere and putting it to a small hole? How about fishing? Boring! How about a drinking? Good idea! ha!

    Disclosure: I am an Insmed shareholder. All of above is my own opinion ONLY. I do not give anyone any advice to suggest anyone sell, buy, or hold. Anything you do with this stock (buy or short sell) is subject to your own risk. Do your own due diligent and make up your own mind. I strongly urge you to give your money to a licensed investment professional to invest the stock market for you.
    Mor - 6 feb 06, 11:21 | Reageer | Quote | Zoek | Aanbevolen

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