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OCI - 2022: Nu of nooit!

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  1. forum rang 6 de schaatser 24 februari 2022 16:16

    • de schaatser

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    quote:

    MKll schreef op 24 februari 2022 15:58:

    Zojuist een updated gekregen vanuit mijn werk als Procurement - Supply Chain Consultant met de grootste Global Supply Chain impact naar aanleiding van de Ukraine - Russia Conflict. En fertilizer staat in de top 5:

    • Russia is a major producer and exporter of fertilizers such as ammonia (23 percent), potash (17 percent), urea (14 percent), and phosphates (10 percent). Despite China being the top producer, it consumes a majority of its produce domestically

    • The conflict could affect Russian exports of fertilizers, which would cause global supply shortages, affecting crop production in countries like Australia

    Ik probeer vanavond de hele slide deck te delen, voor de mensen die geïnteresseerd zijn
    Vandaar dat de beurs in Rusland vandaag 39 % is gedaald.
    Schieten in eigen hiel?
  8. eduardo3105 24 februari 2022 22:53

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    BID 25,22
    ASK 25,28
    Mooie cijfers en vooruitzichten hadden geen blijvende positieve invloed op de koers
    bizar een oorlog wel

    UREA (GRANULAR) FOB US GULF FUTURES - SETTLEMENTS
    FEB 22 - - - - +14.50 576.50 0 510
    MAR 22 - 650.00B - 650.00B +135.00 685.00 0 765
    APR 22 - - - - +134.00 680.00 0 485
    MAY 22 - - - - +120.00 660.00 0 320
    JUN 22 - - - - +112.50 645.00 0 140
    JLY 22 - - - - +77.50 582.50 0 105
    AUG 22 - - - - +82.50 587.50 0 105
    SEP 22 - - - - +85.00 587.50 0 75
  10. forum rang 6 Just lucky 25 februari 2022 09:33

    • Just lucky

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    Het bagger algo is weer aangeslingerd. Mooie opening, daarna met een paar k stukken 60 ct er af en dat terwijl de Urea prijzen exploderen. Yep, dat is Oci.
  14. forum rang 6 Just lucky 25 februari 2022 11:16

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    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 25 februari 2022 10:48:

    Zelfs Yara staat in het groen. terwijl ze alle fabrieken waarschijnlijk in EU hebben afgeschaald vanwege de gasprijs...
    Precies, dat zooitje in Europa, hebben de meeste al afgeboekt in hun waardering. Maar we dalen er wel op.
  17. forum rang 6 Just lucky 25 februari 2022 11:52

    • Just lucky

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    Het grote probleem bij OCI is de verhandelbaarheid, die is totaal uit het lood geslagen. Normaliter wordt ca. 1% van het totaal aantal aandelen verhandeld, dat zou voor OCI 2,2 mln. aandelen per dag betekenen (ongeveer gelijk aan CF). Als we daar op zaten, dan heb je geen last meer van dit gestuurde koersverloop. Nu zitten we gemiddeld op iets meer dan 10%.
  18. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 25 februari 2022 12:14

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    nternational fertilizer market absorbing impact of Russian invasion
    Julia Meehan

    25-Feb-2022

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    LONDON (ICIS)–Across the international fertilizer market, producers, wholesalers, cooperatives, traders and the farming community are all fearful and uncertain about the outlook following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Russia is the largest fertilizer exporter in the world and without its exported tonnes, there will inevitably be a shortage felt across the globe. A shortage will mean a sharp rise in fertilizer prices, this is without factoring in soaring gas and ammonia costs.

    Prior to the conflict, the international fertilizer market experienced record high costs on the back of rising gas prices, but these past weeks prices started to ease as demand failed to return as many had expected. This was in part due to buyers holding off purchasing in the hope that prices would continue to ease.

    This scenario was seen across every fertilizer market, but overnight the situation changed.

    AMMONIA
    Conflict in Ukraine overshadowed the entire market, with the loss of Yuzhny volume for an indefinite period creating concern.

    The unprecedented situation facing producers, traders and buyers saw spot activity almost grind to a halt as players quickly tried to assess positions and conditions.

    Amid the uncertainty, the main issue was how, and if, the market can handle the loss of more than 200,000 tonnes/month of Black Sea volume.

    Buyers in north Africa, Turkey, Bulgaria and India rely heavily on Russian material and alternate supply sources may be challenging to come by, particularly at short notice.

    In addition, potential sanctions on Russian volumes in the Baltic would create an even tighter supply squeeze, as would large increases in European production costs due to soaring natural gas (natgas) prices.

    UREA
    Urea prices increased overnight, by as much as 22% in Egypt, as natural gas prices soared. Granular urea sales in Egypt have been concluded as high as $730/tonne FOB (free on board), compared with $600/tonne FOB at the start of the week.

    In the US, barge values in New Orleans traded at $705/short ton FOB Nola for March, up $165/short ton from $540/short ton FOB the previous day.

    Russian supply is expected to be disrupted because of likely sanctions on urea and ammonia sales, which will greatly reduce world supply.

    Western banks are already believed to have stopped processing letters of credit (LCs) and guarantees for Russian companies.

    Production at European urea and nitrogen plants may also be impacted because of high gas prices.

    Most urea producers have now withdrawn offers as they wait for more clarity on the situation.

    AMMONIUM NIRATE
    The international ammonium nitrate (AN) market is looking very uncertain. Russia is a major exporter of AN to Latin America and parts of Europe.

    AN is the preferred nutrient used by Russian farmers, and exports are typically limited during winter because producers are obliged to serve the domestic market rather than achieving better netbacks from selling abroad. Russia produced 4.392m tonnes of AN in 2020, according to the International Fertilizer Association (IFA).

    PHOSPHATES
    There are worries that any sanctions on Russia will affect phosphates exports, especially at a time when global demand is picking up.

    In India, two Saudi diammonium phosphate (DAP) cargoes were sold for March loading. DAP buyers otherwise are on the side-lines due to the tight availability in the market, as exports from China have been delayed. Also, talks are ongoing for Q1 phosphoric acid contract prices and an increase is expected.

    On the other hand, in China there was a rumour that the ban on phosphates exports will be lifted from 15 April, but this has been widely denied. Apart from that, there was not much product available for export.

    Market participants are looking at Russia and whether it will have export availability for the spring, especially to Brazil, the US and Europe.

    POSTASH
    Players at all levels of the global muriate of potash (MOP) fertilizer market are waiting for the potential impact on the industry of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine – and crucially, what sanctions may be levelled at Moscow as a result.

    Currently it is thought Russian fertilizer operations broadly continue as normal, with traders and producers alike saying it is too soon to estimate if any potential sanctions will affect exports of urea, phosphates or potash.

    Any firm financial or banking sanctions on Russia would hit exports and boost fertilizer prices globally, although there is uncertainty on the type of sanctions that may be issued.

    Should any sanctions be placed on Russian MOP exports the impact would be felt immediately, as separate sanctions placed on Belarus’ own vast MOP export business have already caused a logistical nightmare for the industry.

    SULHUR
    Sulphur sentiment is bullish, but largely uncertain, as market players focused their attention on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The latest development has not had any immediate impact on sulphur, but uncertainty looms as the crisis unfolds.

    Any future impact is expected to first be seen by the likes of Brazil. It could then possibly lead to product being imported from Asia-Pacific.

    The market is also closely observing the impact on related products. Ammonia availability could lead to a reduction in phosphates production, and subsequently, lower sulphur demand.

    Demand is relatively slow on the Yangtze river, as Chinese authorities are reorganising stock arrangements along the river ports.

    In the Americas, much of the focus was on CMOC’s import tender.

    The Federal Customs Service of Russia’s fertilizers import and export data for February 2021, is accessible via the ICIS Supply & Demand Database.

    Additional reporting ICIS Fertilizer team
  19. forum rang 4 watergeus 25 februari 2022 13:14

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    Ondanks de enorme verbetering en de inmiddels lage koers gezien vooruitzichten, is er geen enkele club die het bedrijf wil overnemen voor een hogere prijs. Misschien iets voor Poetin en zijn maatjes :)
  20. forum rang 6 Just lucky 25 februari 2022 14:48

    • Just lucky

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    Wat gebeurt er nu, Oci een paar cent groen. Ik wacht even op het blokje, want groen mag niet bij Oci. Gelukkig heb ik AMG ook, wat een potentie heeft die parel.
  21. forum rang 7 Calendar 25 februari 2022 14:53

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    Zal die call's weer proberen te schrijven die ik gisteren terug gekocht had. Moet het nog wel een beetje stijgen.
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