Pioneer schreef op 4 juli 2021 21:42:
Sorry, I can understand dutch but writing is much harder.
I do have a large position in ABN and I have had a diversified one until recently where I am almost all in ABN.
Last thing first, ABN is a problematic bank, not a DB at all but has made a mistake to focus the earnings from fields where they lack expertise such as TF and they had a bitter lesson. Being from industry I can easily say there decision was correct, current ABN shall be a simple bank.
It will be though to increase the NIM to a level to sustain 6-7% ROE and maybe not brfore 2024, but as you said a boring and less risky bank shall and will have a different P/B Value (closer to 1) and a higher P/E than peers. So all this said, ABN is waiting for the light at the end of tunnel and there has been none of it yet. All the suprise results were provision releases or asset sales which are one shot income.
Banks which were worse laggards than ABN , last year such as Sabadell and Socgen (which have similar problems) made the jump this year. ABN has much better asset quality , shareholder structure and infrastructure so once the results come in we will se an immense reaction. IMO 11/08 or 10/11.
There is also a shorts factor. Especially MW is has a value short (ex ABN short ING long)
and they do have a good risk appetite. Shorts if they were to cover are over 10 days which is absurfly high.slowly volume is better which is better for them but it is a rsiky business.
Some days I also see that some of the shorties try to break the momentum delibaretly.
Ofcourse all this is thanks to ABN management who absurtly put pillar 115% target
which is a punishment to all shareholder when you are trading at 30% to book value.
But it wont change the result it will only take longer. Neither asset quality nor P&L projection of ABN deserve to be the worst performing bank in Europe. I do the think even 20s are possoble thisnyear
.