Biocartis BE0974281132

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1. [verwijderd] 30 juni 2020 11:05

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   Berenberg Bank is een Duitse investeringsbank in Hamburg, opgericht in 1590 door de broers Hans en Paul Berenberg uit Antwerpen. Het is de oudste bank van Duitsland en, na Monte dei Paschi di Siena in Italië, de oudste bank ter wereld. Het is de oudste handelsbank in de wereld en de oudste bank met dezelfde rechtspersoon ter wereld.
   
   Als je een aandeel inschat en erna dan 60 % afdoet, heb je de vorige keer toch wel iets over het hoofd gezien, denk ik dan.
   Of is het Alzheimer?
   
2. MisterBlues 30 juni 2020 11:19

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   quote:

   Grobert schreef op 30 juni 2020 10:23:

   Berenberg verlaagt koersdoel van biocartis van 16,5 € naar 6,60 €.... maar.... verhoogt aanbeveling van "under review" naar "kopen"... belangrijke voortuigang de laatste jaren in moleculaire diagnose betreffende kanker + verschillende partenariaten voor samenwerking
   
   Blijkbaar geen reactie op de beurs
   

   Het koopadvies, mits goed beredeneerd en bestudeerd, is wel positief.
   
   De koersdoelverlaging is misschien wat overdreven, maar het zijn wel benarde tijden. Bovendien zijn er weinig Mdx bedrijven die exponentieel stijgen. Het is wellicht gewoon realistisch...?
   
   Misschien moeten we er allemaal aan gaan geloven dat BCART traag gaat groeien - ondanks dat straks die FDA/EMA/CHIN/JAP-goedkeuringen binnen gaan komen?
3. [verwijderd] 30 juni 2020 11:50

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   Bijna 50 procent potentiële koerswinst op 1 jaar is niet zo slecht.
   De aandeelhouders die nu nog een gemiddelde aankoopprijs hebben boven de 10 Euro zijn echt niet goed bezig.
4. Lucid 30 juni 2020 12:13

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   quote:

   RUF RTR schreef op 30 juni 2020 11:50:

   Bijna 50 procent potentiële koerswinst op 1 jaar is niet zo slecht.
   De aandeelhouders die nu nog een gemiddelde aankoopprijs hebben boven de 10 Euro zijn echt niet goed bezig.
   

   Want geld groeit aan de bomen zodat je steeds kan bijkopen?
5. [verwijderd] 30 juni 2020 12:42

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   quote:

   Lucid schreef op 30 juni 2020 12:13:

   [...]
   Want geld groeit aan de bomen zodat je steeds kan bijkopen?
   

   We spreken niet over een aandeel van Berkshire Hathaway maar over een aandeel die noteert onder 5 Euro
6. Flatlander 30 juni 2020 13:27

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   Come On! Do you really put any emphasis on the opinion of an analyst that gave a buy rating on Wirecard on the eve of the biggest scandal in German stock market history. At least they showed consistency by reducing the price target while issuing the buy rating.
   
   www.marketscreener.com/WIRECARD-AG-45...
   
   I'll take their ill timed advice as a contra indicator.
   
   FL
7. Lucid 30 juni 2020 13:33

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   quote:

   RUF RTR schreef op 30 juni 2020 12:42:

   [...]
   
   We spreken niet over een aandeel van Berkshire Hathaway maar over een aandeel die noteert onder 5 Euro
   

   De prijs van een aandeel heeft er toch niets mee te maken? Je kan 5 aandelen hebben van 5000 € of 5000 van 5 €, blijft zelfde investering. Maar ok, ik had waarschijnlijk moeten verkopen met het slechte nieuws vorig jaar en dan lager terug inkopen. Natuurlijk stonden de meeste koersdoelen nog zaltijd boven de 10 € op dat moment dus verwachte ik eigenlijk dat het terug ging stijgen. Een beetje naieve gedachte dat analisten weten waarover ze praten.
8. Flatlander 30 juni 2020 13:52

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   In a normal year the U.S spends $24B on fighting sepsis. How much is spent in a pandemic? maybe 10 times that amount. How much will be spent wold-wide fighting sepsis this year? I'll bet the figure goes north of $500B. We are a few weeks away from finding out if an innovative diagnostic product already approved for use in the EU will be a valuable triage tool in the fight of our lifetime.
   
   Curious time for the revision of the price target. Perhaps looking to downgrade expectations to create an entry point for clients, or maybe just incompetence similar to Wirecard.
   
   FL
9. Gijpie 30 juni 2020 17:39

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   FL at 6,6 it puts biocartis at a market cap of about 375 mil € do you think it is worth more now on this moment . In the past you also mentioned the Biocartis business model is simular to that of HP in the past ( witch is a very clever model ) . Well i indicated before unless there comes a dramatic uptake in Idylla’s sold you will see lower price targets. You and I both know that if it stays in the 300 to 350 range which it actually is now for almost 2,5 years Biocartis won’t be profitable until 2030 or beyond and ran out of money long before
10. MisterBlues 30 juni 2020 18:17

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    quote:

    Gijpie schreef op 30 juni 2020 17:39:

    FL at 6,6 it puts biocartis at a market cap of about 375 mil € do you think it is worth more now on this moment . In the past you also mentioned the Biocartis business model is simular to that of HP in the past ( witch is a very clever model ) . Well i indicated before unless there comes a dramatic uptake in Idylla’s sold you will see lower price targets. You and I both know that if it stays in the 300 to 350 range which it actually is now for almost 2,5 years Biocartis won’t be profitable until 2030 or beyond and ran out of money long before
    

    Helemaal mee eens. Die toename komt er pas als die medische keuringen er zijn en er meer ruimte is voor (kleine) ziekenhuizen / POC-punten om over te stappen - na de crisis.
    
    'Sepsis' is een doekje voor het bloeden. Het helpt wel maar niet in die mate die je wilt.
    
    FL, ik heb je nog nooit zo uit de hoek zien komen! Het is maar een aandeel!
    
    Het komt goed met BCART maar een exponentiële groei zie ik niet gebeuren.
12. Flatlander 30 juni 2020 18:44

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    quote:

    Gijpie schreef op 30 juni 2020 17:39:

    FL at 6,6 it puts biocartis at a market cap of about 375 mil € do you think it is worth more now on this moment . In the past you also mentioned the Biocartis business model is simular to that of HP in the past ( witch is a very clever model ) . Well i indicated before unless there comes a dramatic uptake in Idylla’s sold you will see lower price targets. You and I both know that if it stays in the 300 to 350 range which it actually is now for almost 2,5 years Biocartis won’t be profitable until 2030 or beyond and ran out of money long before
    

    Gijpie
    
    I don't think I ever compared BCART to HP. I have compared it on numerous occasions to Cepheid and I still believe that to be best analogy. Cepheid is a similar cartridge based PCR platform. They have emphasized infectious disease rather than oncology. Interesting much of Cepheid's growth occurred during periods of feared pandemic (H1N1, SARS, etc.). This just shows that a critical well timed product can drive growth. Hopefully Septicyte Rapid/COVID can act in a similar manner for BCART.
    
    Once after several drinks and reading Verelst discussion of the "Idylla ecosystem", I think I may have compared it to Apple. The similarity is a stretch in that if BCART can get the subscriber base up, they could use the platform to introduce CDx partner sponsored advertisements/educational materials to the POC provider at the crucial time of MDx diagnosis. This would be very valuable to partners but is still many miles away. I'll now claim amnesia on this comparison since the Idylla subscriber base is far from what would be necessary to make the platform an attractive advertisement platform.
    
    You are correct that we both realize that the growth trajectory must change to secure higher valuation. I have on numerous occasions said that it was likely that a growth inflection point would be necessary before BCART can break out of the valuation/market cap rut. I tend to focus on the large catalysts on the horizon. But in hindsight, I wish I had exited last summer when I first sensed that the timeline for some of the launches was being pushed out farther than I anticipated. The only way my decision gets vindicated is if there is explosive S.P. move off of a news event like Septicyte, US and/or China registration, OncotypeDx...... Hindsight is always 20:20. However, the worst case for me would be to sell what I always considered to be a speculative investment at these low prices and then miss such a move.
    
    It would not be unreasonable to see a 10X move to a market Cap of $3B in a few years with successful IVD registrations and better market penetration would be necessary. Lifting of the regulatory restrictions is necessary before any of this can materialize.
    
    FL
13. Flatlander 30 juni 2020 21:14

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    quote:

    MisterBlues schreef op 30 juni 2020 18:17:

    [...]
    
    Helemaal mee eens. Die toename komt er pas als die medische keuringen er zijn en er meer ruimte is voor (kleine) ziekenhuizen / POC-punten om over te stappen - na de crisis.
    
    'Sepsis' is een doekje voor het bloeden. Het helpt wel maar niet in die mate die je wilt.
    
    FL, ik heb je nog nooit zo uit de hoek zien komen! Het is maar een aandeel!
    
    Het komt goed met BCART maar een exponentiële groei zie ik niet gebeuren.
    

    MB
    
    Yep, I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning to find that the EU has banned travelers from the U.S. from entering. I can't blame the restriction, our administration had the most time to develop a response to Coronavirus and yet still bungled it, costing many needless deaths. Still about 35 to 40% of my countrymen support him, pretty much no matter what he does. I'll be contemplating a move to Canada if the situation does not change in November. Sorry to get political but the comment required explanation.
    
    FL
    
14. MisterBlues 30 juni 2020 21:58

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    I follow the news every day and I am also worried about the situation in your country, especially Texas, Mississippi, California, Carolina etc. This incompetent president does not make it any easyer on you all.
    
    Keep up the good spirits though, sometimes you have to go deep before change is gonna come.
15. Flatlander 1 juli 2020 05:34

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    There seems to be the impetuous for major change on several levels (politically, racially ...). The Republicans in the Senate that refused to act as the constitutional check on this spoiled child will need to go in the penalty box for a generation. Even as dark as things are in the U.S., I see glimmers of hope. Chief justice Roberts has acted as the swing vote (despite his conservative background) in order to remove the aura of politics from the court. Hopefully he does so again with a favorable ruling that Trump's auditor and bank must release his tax returns. Hopefully we finally learn what leverage the Russians have on him!
    
    Regards
    FL
16. brightlight 1 juli 2020 17:48

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    quote:

    Flatlander schreef op 30 juni 2020 18:44:

    [...]
    
    Gijpie
    
    ... You are correct that we both realize that the growth trajectory must change to secure higher valuation. ...
    
    FL
    

    FL
    I often wonder if the reference shareholders are happy with the situation. I suppose they are loosing money too. If you were a reference shareholder, wouldn't you pressure management to focus on unlocking shareholder value? There must be ways to do that. Verrelst enlarged the G&A dept significantly last years. That is not a department that generates revenue. I wonder if that was really necessary at this point in time. It would probably be the first department where another manager would cut. I suppose there are other ways to unlock shareholder value, but I sometimes wonder if the focus is on that. The way I see it Verrelst wants to grow at all cost, but still that does not mean the beans shouldn't be counted at all.
    BL
17. Flatlander 1 juli 2020 23:47

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    BL
    The hiring in all aspects (G&A, Sales, Engineering, manufacturing line ...) of BCART has increased tremendously in the last year. When I worked for a large engineering company G&A got cut in an environment like this (well not exactly like this) since they were not a profit center. The BCART staffing obviously portrays that the company expects growth to accelerate. From our vantage point, the question whether they are putting the cart before the horse by staffing up G&A is a good one. They seem to be hiring as if they are certain of the growth inflection point in the near future. The MDx market is probably not very forgiving, such that clients expect adequate staffing to meet there needs. Therefore, being understaffed in client interfacing roles may be an unforgivable sin. Balancing the hiring with cash burn is a real tightrope. I hope the messages they are sending by all the hiring materialize in this pandemic environment.
    
    On an unrelated front, here is another technical paper suggesting a strong CDx role for Idylla EGFR. Like the MSK webinar they suggest that there is a place to incorporate Idylla into the work flow with NGS. China has a much higher incidence of EGFR linked lung cancer and a lower density of NGS testing equipment. Thus, it appears to be a strong market opportunity for Idylla.
    
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC...
    
    I know were are not in a market where these fundamentals matter. However, I'm convinced that at some point after the registration approvals these opportunities will translate to both the top and bottom lines. Without these approvals, BCART is unable to leverage their partners sales force. That was the part of their business model that I really liked.
    
    China is really cracking down on Hong Kong today. I wonder to what extent it is impacting WondfoCartis. Pandemics, regulatory uncertainty, huge geopolitical risks ..., it is no wonder a lot of investors are taking a pass on BCART right now.
    
    FL
18. brightlight 2 juli 2020 17:15

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    FL,
    I still do not understand why the institutional investors willingly keep taking it on the chin, just as we, small investors are. Maybe they have no choice either. What if the new CFO was put at Bcart as a move from the institutional investors to try to get the costs under control? If that were the case, it wouldn't be a bad thing. Probably wishful thinking, though.
    Anyway, if it weren't for the cash burn, the actual growth numbers would be more than acceptable, even in troublesome 2019.
    BL
19. Gijpie 2 juli 2020 18:08

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    Brightlight. Mocht dit zo zijn wat betreft de CFO dan denk ik niet dat ze enen van MDX health hadden genomen want als ge ies spreekt van dramatische cijfers . Ik denk dat die grote beleggers ook gewoon zitten te wachten op die goedkeuringen zodat de trein kan vertrekken
20. brightlight 2 juli 2020 19:53

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    Gijpie,
    Was maar een hersenkronkel :). Ik acht het ook niet erg waarschijnlijk.
    BL
21. Flatlander 2 juli 2020 20:55

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    quote:

    brightlight schreef op 2 juli 2020 17:15:

    FL,
    I still do not understand why the institutional investors willingly keep taking it on the chin, just as we, small investors are. Maybe they have no choice either. What if the new CFO was put at Bcart as a move from the institutional investors to try to get the costs under control? If that were the case, it wouldn't be a bad thing. Probably wishful thinking, though.
    Anyway, if it weren't for the cash burn, the actual growth numbers would be more than acceptable, even in troublesome 2019.
    BL
    

    BL
    I'm not that convinced that institutional investors are engaged to the level that you suggest. They see a a very small company trying to to change the MDx norms by introducing a fast turnaround POC device that into the woldwide market. It is a high risk high reward endeavor and they have sized their positions accordingly. They probably set a 10 year time frame for the investment to play out. So I don't think they meddle on the day to day operations and lobbying on how cash flow is utilized. Slowing hiring in some areas could represent the time required for a competitor to gain a foothold.
    
    Do you have a figure as to how much headcount has been added to G&A functions in the last year? Some of the increased costs reflect finance costs for the convertible. Also, I suspect that some of the G&A costs are associated with 50% of the costs for setting up the operations in Hong Kong.
    
    FL