Flatlander schreef op 1 mei 2020 06:15:
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BL
I thought you sold down your BCART holdings. Based on your spreadsheet summary, it looks like your still mulling things over like you still have significant investment.
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Is it that obvious :). As I mentioned, I would keep monitoring Bcart. Six was my price target for the year. Reaching the high fives a couple of days ago meant that I had to sell all. However, when Bcart dipped below five again, I could not resist taking a position again (MB is right: Hotel California). By actively trading I managed over time to reduce my initial losses in Bcart quite a lot already. There is much to say for investing in Bcart and there is a lot to say for not investing in Bcart. I am constantly thrown between the two. Bcart is roughly 3 to 4 years behind schedule. Break-even was expected this year already (according to analysts in 2016/2017). On the one hand this is not a good thing, but on the other it presents current investors with a unique opportunity. Sales acceleration should be right around the corner and you can buy it at a far lower price then a couple of years ago. As I have argued, Bcart is still not cheap, but if they can muster a sales growth of 50% plus in 2021 (which is within the realm of possibilities) the share price can go up 50% (or more if it overshoots) while the P/S remains at the current level. I always play it conservatively, so if the share price can go to 7.5 in 2021, then that represents a 50% gain in little over a year. The risk/reward is then much better balanced than when you would have bought at 5.9 a couple of days ago.
[quote alias=Flatlander id=12370866 date=202005010615]
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I did a deeper dive into Qiagen's web site and noted their QIASymphony platform isn't considered a POC device (requires an operating technician, reagents, etc). Earlier this year they placed their 2500 unit. But from what I can see it has been on the market for 10 years.
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I am not a Qiagen specialist, but from looking at their numbers briefly before the Fisher take-over, I noticed their sales were hardly still growing. (I quote from memory so I can be wrong). You could see it in the share-price too (before the take-over). Fisher must believe they can make it grow again. I am glad to hear they are not a direct competitor to Bcart.
[quote alias=Flatlander id=12370866 date=202005010615]
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The focus on partner content has some advantages since partnership/collaboration income is not insignificant. More importantly, there is less of a chance that internal projects run afoul of major initiatives of partners. I worry that the ABC panel may conflict with some of EXAS plans for the Oncotype Dx Breast cancer franchise expansion.
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I agree. There are two ways to partner: CDx and the transfer of existing tests to the Idylla platform. In both cases this opens up opportunities for Bcart to branch out. They can go beyond their initial focus on cancer, again. They can go wherever the partner takes them.
[quote alias=Flatlander id=12370866 date=202005010615]
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Finally, I'd like to know what the royalty is for client sponsored content. Do you think we will ever see these royalty figures for Septicyte rapid sales later this year?
FL