SNSN schreef op 14 januari 2014 16:22:
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The problem only is that such models (standard TA) are based on assumptions of long-term stationarity for underlying processes... Otherwise, if drift and volatility (quant “measures” of “info” received) are functions of time, then any “info” reflected in “yesterday prices” may become (partially) irrelevant “tomorrow”, as tomorrow the same “info” may have another price impact than “yesterday“.
Unfortunately, underlying processes for kpn are essentially not-stationary, especially on longer horizons, where time-dependent drivers include both “diffusion” and “jump” processes. Moreover, all “price history” recorded before the rights issue is irrelevant for “new kpn”....., at least, it can't be used directly.
Actually standard TA is a "tool" to coordinate actions of different market participants..... in order to achieve common objectives.