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Goed nieuws, of toch niet?

1. Ruud100 18 augustus 2009 14:18

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   news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8207174.stm
   
   Page last updated at 11:27 GMT, Tuesday, 18 August 2009 12:27 UK
   
   China reduces holdings in US debt Dollar notes
   China wants to establish a new global currency regime
   
   China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury.
   
   China holds more US government debt than any other country and cut its holdings of US securities by more that 3% in June, said the BBC's Chris Hogg.
   
   Japan and the UK - second and third largest holders of US debt - increased their holdings over the same period.
   
   China's holding of US debt is about 7% higher than at the turn of the year.
   
   Inflation fear
   
   In recent months the US government's budget deficit has widened thanks in part to the Obama administration's costly stimulus plan.
   
   Our correspondent in Shanghai says that China is worried about this, and fears the stimulus efforts will fuel inflation in the US, reducing the value of the dollar.
   
   This would then erode the value of the debt China holds in the US currency.
   
   In June, China cut its holdings of US securities by about $25bn, a fall of 3.1%.
   
   'Dollar alternative'
   
   The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe.
   
   In 2008, the Chinese increased their holdings in US debt by 52% over 12 months.
   
   "China has said it would like to establish an alternative to the US dollar as the world's favoured currency for foreign exchange reserves," said our correspondent.
   
   "So far there is no evidence that there is a suitable alternative. But these figures suggest they are exploring ways to diversify their investments where they can."
2. Ruud100 18 augustus 2009 17:04

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   Tax Bills Put Pressure on Struggling Homeowners
   
   By JACK HEALY
   Published: August 17, 2009
   
   Hard times are causing more homeowners to fall behind on their property taxes. But in thousands of cases, they are not responsible to their local governments, but to private companies that charge double-digit interest and thousands of dollars in service fees.
   
   This is because in recent years struggling cities and counties have sold their delinquent tax bills to the highest bidder. It seemed a painless way to turn old debts into cash to finance schools or public services.
   
   But housing advocates say the private companies may be exacerbating the foreclosure crisis, pushing out homeowners faster than would governments, which are increasingly concerned about neighborhoods becoming wastelands of abandoned properties.
   
   “In the beginning, you’re getting this immediate windfall of cash,” said Anita Lopez, the auditor of Lucas County, Ohio, which sold off more than 3,000 tax liens for $14.7 million. The county includes Toledo. “But when you think about abandoned properties, foreclosed properties — the cost to the community is far more expensive than the short-term benefits.”
   
   Investors say the arrangement actually benefits everyone. School districts, fire departments and public parks get an infusion of cash. The investors take on a risky but potentially high-yielding investment. And taxpayers do not have to pick up the slack from scofflaw landlords or tax evaders.
   
   Governments, of course, can charge interest and penalties too, and they foreclose on properties for back taxes. But governments charge interest rates that are half what private investors charge — often offering no-interest payment plans — and are also more likely to be concerned about the long-term prospects of neighborhoods.
   
   In Toledo, one of the areas hardest hit by the downturn and by private lenders holding tax liens, homeowners like Richard Fix are facing foreclosure for a few thousand dollars in overdue taxes.
   
   Mr. Fix said he lost his job with Chrysler in January 2008 and took a lower-paying job. As he and his family struggled to pay their mortgage, credit cards and other bills, he said they fell behind on $5,900 in taxes. “I’m in a no-win situation at this point,” he said.
   
   Private investors step in and buy tax liens, paying governments upfront all or part of the value of the taxes. The investors then get the right to foreclose on the properties, taking priority over mortgage lenders, and to charge interest rates as high as 18 percent on the unpaid taxes.
   
   In 2006, Lucas County began selling off its overdue tax certificates to a New Jersey company named Plymouth Park Tax Services, a subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase. It also operates under the name Xspand.
   
   Plymouth Park has filed more than 1,000 foreclosure actions against delinquent taxpayers, more than any single mortgage lender in the county. But it says that it has only foreclosed on 56 of those filings.
   Plymouth Park has bought $2 billion in tax liens across the country since 2008, and says the number of foreclosures around Toledo is an aberration.
   
   But housing advocates in Lucas County said homeowners were overwhelmed by the fees and interest rates. Debts of $3,300 grew to $6,800. And while Plymouth Park offered a payment plan, lawyers said that many homeowners did not have enough money to make upfront payments of a $1,000 or more.
   
   Danyell Copeland, 36, is in court over a tax bill of less than $2,000, her lawyer said. Ms. Copeland, who works as a cook at the University of Toledo, said she had been fallen behind on her bills after her hours and overtime were cut.
   
   She chose to not pay her taxes so she could make her mortgage payments, she said. Now she worries about losing the two-bedroom house where she grows tomatoes and peppers in the garden.
3. [verwijderd] 18 augustus 2009 17:11

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   www.nos.nl/nosjournaal/artikelen/2009...
   
   Het gaat niet goed met de Amerikaanse stad Chicago. De stad heeft te kampen met geldgebrek. Om geld te besparen hebben gisteren alle ambtenaren een dag onbetaald verlof opgelegd gekregen. Dat zal dit jaar nog twee keer gebeuren.
   
   Zo waren maandag het gemeentehuis en de bibliotheek gesloten en ook het vuilnis werd niet opgehaald.
   
   Begrip
   Toch kan de maatregel op begrip rekenen. Veel mensen zijn liever een paar keer per jaar een dag onbetaald vrij dan dat er mensen ontslagen moeten worden. Iedere dag dat er niet gewerkt wordt bespaart de stad miljoenen dollars.
4. Ruud100 18 augustus 2009 18:12

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   Deze is beetje lang maar wel echt leuk voor de beren onder ons. Echt alles wat omhoog wijst wordt omgebogen.
   
   Gr
   Ruud
   
   “Just because the conventional economists are drinking the Kool-Aid doesn’t mean you have to”
   Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Aug 18 16:13.
   
   Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg woke up on a particularly bearish side of the bed on Tuesday morning, if his most recent note is any indication.
   
   All we see is more evidence of a revenue-less recovery. Home Depot beat estimates but still posting a deflationary 9.1% sales plunge after Lowe’s announced a 9.5% slide in same-store receipts. And, don’t look now, but three-month dollar Libor rates are back on the rise in the aftermath of the seizure of Colonial BancGroup (hello, the credit crisis is not over just because the government bailed out the big boys)…
   
   The decline in consumer sentiment and the weakness seen in retail sales cannot be readily dismissed. Outside of the bounce in the otherwise moribund automotive area, those green shoots are hardly turning into redwoods.
   
   But by far our favourite bit of the note is Rosenberg’s depiction of the L-shaped recovery (to say nothing of his swipe at “conventional economists” and the herd mentality):
   
   There seems to be quite a lot of confusion over what an “L-shaped” recovery is all about. It’s not that the economy just stagnates after the recession ends — it’s more like the growth rate is choppy, sloppy and toppy. It is below-trend and deflationary. We had this coming out of the last recession when real private sector spending came in at 0.5% (seasonally adjusted at an annual rate) in 2002Q1, 1.4% in 2Q, 2.1% in 3Q, and a mere +0.6% in 4Q. Call it what you will — but it’s more L-like than V.
   
   Even in the early 1990s, we had much the same: real private spending was a tepid 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter of recovery in 1991, 1.5% in the second and 0.0% in the third. So, most economists like to go back to the good old days of the early 80s, mid 70s, early 70s, early 60s, late 50s and early 50s when we did have V-shaped recoveries. But those cycles were completely irrelevant because those recoveries occurred in the context of an expanding secular credit cycle. That is to say that when each of these recessions ended, the consumer came back even stronger and was willing to take on ever-higher debt ratios.
   
   We are now coming off a $14 trillion loss of household net worth, which represents a 20% implosion of the consumer balance sheet coupled with a post-bubble credit collapse, which means that despite the government stimulus, the economy is going to be limping along for a prolonged period of time as savings rates rise and debt ratios decline. To repeat: In the next economic recovery, whenever it comes — and it will not be determined by a one-quarter adjustment in auto assemblies, by the way — we are most likely going to be dealing with the idea that household credit ratios will undergo a secular, intentional and steep downtrend and that is where conventional interpretation on the business cycle is most likely to go awry. Just because the conventional economists are drinking the Kool-Aid doesn’t mean you have to.
   
   We can understand that “leading” financial indicators seem to be pointing towards a recovery, but remember, they also priced in a “depression scenario” late last year and early in 2009 and that never came to fruition, so investors should be aware that we could be seeing a similar head-fake. Relying on the ECRI index, for example, could be folly since the index has done little more than a bungee jump from levels we had never seen before. So keep in mind that even with the bounce, the equity market is still just back to levels prevailing when the U.S. economy was “only” a year into recession. Corporate bonds spreads may have narrowed sharply, but are still at levels that represented peaks during several prior economic downturns. The fact that practically everyone is declaring the recession to be over, from a purely contrary standpoint, should be cause for pause as well because the herd mentality rarely proves to be the correct course.
   
   As for the impending disaster that is commercial real estate:
   To be sure, if the economy were on a solid foundation towards a sustainable recovery then we doubt that the Fed would have moved to extend the TALF program. The central bank sees what most economists do not — the implications for the financial sector from the looming wave of commercial real estate defaults. The $83 billion in office, retail, industrial and apartment properties that have defaulted so far this year is the thin edge of the wedge — that represents a 2.25% default rate (up from 1.6% at the start of the year) and most credible estimates we have seen point to a doubling from here by year-end and enough to drain GDP growth by at least a half a percentage point.
   
   Property values have gone down more in the commercial space than in residential — by around 40% from the 2007 peaks. The crisis has been prolonged by the fact that lenders have so far foreclosed on fewer than 10% of defaulted loans. In the meantime, what we have on our hands is a debt-rollover nightmare that comes to nearly $1 trillion in terms of the short-term commercial mortgages that are set to mature by the end of 2010. The odds that the Federal Reserve chooses to tighten monetary policy in the midst of this epic rollover calendar is as close to zero as you can ever possibly get, which means that the euro-dollar strips that relentlessly are pricing in rate hikes are currently low-hanging fruit.
   
   Oh dear.
5. Ruud100 18 augustus 2009 20:38

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   Gluskin-Sheff economist David Rosenberg has some harsh words about the Cash For Clunkers program in his daily letter:
   
   We couldn't believe this when we saw this quote from the U.S. Transportation Secretary (Ray Lahood) in yesterday's NYT (page B3) on the “Cash for Clunkers” program:
   
   “There obviously is a real pent-up demand in America ... people love to buy cars, and we've given them the incentive to do that. I think the last thing that any politician wants to do is cut off the opportunity for somebody who's going to be able to get a rebate from the government to buy a new vehicle.”
   
   Are you kidding me? If there is pent-up demand for autos why do we need a rebate? If there are 20% more vehicles than there are licensed drivers, why the need to perpetuate this cycle of overspending? Why is it a politician's job to create incentives to spend?
   
   Shouldn't they be focusing their attention on health, education, defense, infrastructure, public safety, job skills and productivity growth (and perhaps the youth unemployment rate of around 20%)?
   
   We're not exactly espousing an Ayn Rand libertarian view but at a time when the deficit is running at 13% of GDP, at what point is enough? These rebates are not manna from heaven — it’s a future tax liability to hasten a decision that the auto buyer would have made in any event. This is fiscal policy short-termism at its best
6. Ruud100 19 augustus 2009 18:15

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   Buffett says unchecked U.S. debt threatens economy:
   Reuters
   1 hr 46 mins ago
   
   WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy has avoided a meltdown and appears on a slow path to recovery, but Congress must now deal with enormous amounts of debt that threaten to erode U.S. purchasing power.
   
   In an opinion column published on Wednesday by the New York Times, Buffett wrote that he "resoundingly applauds" actions by the Federal Reserve and the Bush and Obama administrations to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system.
   
   But the "gusher of federal money" has run up a high level of debt that could fuel inflation, he said.
   
   "The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery," Buffett wrote.
   
   "But enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself."
   
   Buffett, who runs insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc, likened the economic threat of "greenback emissions" to the environmental threat of greenhouse gas emissions, leaving the United States with a deficit of $1.8 trillion or 13 percent of gross domestic product this year.
   
   In July, the government posted a $180.68 billion monthly budget deficit, a record for July, marking only the third time in the past 30 years that the government ran a deficit for 11 months in a row.
   
   Buffett said a revived economy will not be able to generate enough revenues to bridge the gap between outlays and receipts, so changes in taxes and spending will be required.
   
   Politicians will not likely have the will to raise taxes or slow spending, so they may opt to quietly let inflation increase, a move that will "confiscate" wealth and allow the United States to evolve into a "banana republic economy", he said.
   
   "Our immediate problem is to get our country back on its feet and flourishing -- 'whatever it takes' still makes sense," Buffet said in the paper.
   
   But once recovery is gained, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio and keep its growth in obligations in line with its growth in resources, he wrote.
   
   "Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar's destiny lies with Congress," he said.
   
   (Reporting by David Lawder in Washington and S. John Tilak in Bangalore)
7. Ruud100 19 augustus 2009 20:26

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   Auw!
   
   If you’re not yet worried about CRE, what are you waiting on?
   Posted by Stacy-Marie Ishmael on Aug 19 18:36.
   
   Fitch on Tuesday announced an “expanded review” of the exposure of major US banks to commercial real estate, a favourite topic here on FT Alphaville.
   
   According to the rating agency, “the performance metrics of commercial real estate, an area with a significant risk exposure for the majority of Fitch’s U.S. bank universe, continues to deteriorate at an unprecedented pace.”
   
   Here are the more substantive bits from the press release:
   While CRE loans, excluding the more problematic construction and development portfolios, represent more than 125% of total equity for the 20 largest banks rated by Fitch, the risk is even higher for banks with less than $20 billion in assets, as average CRE exposure represents more than 200% of total equity for these institutions.
   
   As reported last week by Fitch’s commercial mortgage backed security (CMBS) group, CMBS loan delinquencies surpassed 3% in July and are expected to increase more than 60% by year end to at least 5%. Further, roll rates from 30 to 60 days have increased to over 50% in 2009 and resolutions continue to slow. “The same factors that are placing pressure on CMBS transactions are increasing pressure on the performance of bank and thrift-held CRE portfolios” according to Thomas Abruzzo, Managing Director and co-head of Fitch’s North America Financial Institutions group.
   
   The stress is clearly not confined to CMBS activity. In commenting on the U.S. bank universe, Abruzzo went on to state, “large banking companies have seen levels of early-stage delinquencies, more severe delinquencies and non-accrual loans, as well as charge-offs increase markedly across their CRE and construction and development portfolios. While the 10%+ of construction and development loans in non-accrual is greatly attributed to residential construction activity, the 5% of the CRE book in non-accrual status evidences more widespread problems.”
   
   Fitch currently assigns Negative Outlooks to nearly half of the 20 largest U.S. bank and thrift institutions it rates. As Fitch has indicated in its recent bank rating actions, a major concern contributing to these Negative Outlooks is the potential for further deterioration in the institutions’ loan portfolios with a specific focus on CRE exposures.
8. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 12:51

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   Opnieuw: FLinke omzetdaling. Hoezo herstel in de VS?
   Het enige dat ze daar nog kopen is auto's, en die subsidie is al voor meer dan de helft op. Daarna blijft er niets meer over dat nog verkoopt.
   
   Het geld bij de meeste consumenten in de VS is gewoon op. De verkopen bij grote ketens zakken met 7 a 10% weg in Q2.
   
   Gr
   Ruud
   
   Sears Holdings lijdt onverwacht verlies in tweede kwartaal
   20 aug 2009, 12:49 uur
   
   NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Sears Holdings Corp. heeft in het tweede kwartaal van 2009 onverwacht een verlies geleden, bij een omzetdaling van 10%. De op drie na grootste retailer van de Verenigde Staten rapporteerde donderdag een nettoverlies over het afgelopen kwartaal van $94 miljoen, terwijl in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder nog een nettowinst werd geboekt van $65 miljoen.
   
   Per aandeel kwam het verlies uit op $0,79, vergeleken met een winst van $0,50 een jaar geleden. De winst in het afgelopen kwartaal werd gedrukt door $103 miljoen aan lasten gerelateerd aan het pensioenplan en de sluiting van winkels. In het tweede kwartaal van 2008 werd het winstcijfer daarentegen positief beinvloed door een eenmalige bate van $62 miljoen.
   
   Exclusief eenmalige items bedroeg het verlies $0,17 per aandeel, tegen een winst van $0,21 een jaar eerder. Analisten gepolst door Thomson Reuters hadden verwacht dat Sears een winst zou boeken van $0,35 per aandeel.
   
   De omzet daalde in het tweede kwartaal met 10% tot $10,55 miljard, terwijl analisten uitgingen van een omzet van $10,73 miljard. De binnenlandse identieke omzet, ofwel de omzet van winkels die langer dan een jaar open zijn, daalde met 8,6% in het afgelopen kwartaal. De identieke omzet van Sears Domestic nam af met 12,5% en de identieke omzet van Kmart daalde met 3,9%. De brutomarge bleef vlak op 26,5%.
9. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 14:30

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   Public sector borrowing soaring
   
   The UK's public sector net borrowing totalled £8bn last month, the first July deficit for 13 years, official figures have shown.
   The figure was much worse than the £500m deficit expected by analysts, and comes as the recession continues to reduce the government's tax returns.
   
   July is typically a month of surplus, due to corporate tax payments. The government's overall debt now stands at £801bn, or 56.8% of GDP, its highest level since at least 1974.
   
   The BBC's chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym suggested things are unlikely to get much worse from here. "A return to economic growth in the third quarter should prop up the public finances and the planned reversal of the VAT cut will boost revenues," he said.
   
   "But the chancellor will have some nervous months watching the borrowing figures in the next few months."
   
   'Caused by recession'
   The Treasury said in a statement that the large deficit in July was expected, and caused by the recession. "In the first half of the year the whole world was in a steep recession and that affected the public finances here in the UK," said a Treasury spokesman.
   
   In July of last year, the public sector finances posted a surplus of £5.2bn. Last month's deficit was the first in July since 1996, and the largest for that month since at least 1993. July is traditionally a strong month for public finances, as it includes a quarterly corporation tax bill.
   
   However, tax revenues fell to £6.2bn last month, from £9.9bn a year earlier, when profits at oil giants such as BP and Shell were lifted by record global crude prices.
   
   Income tax and VAT takings last month were both down 15% from a year earlier. Meanwhile public sector spending, including unemployment payments, was up 10.4%.
   
   In April's budget, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, forecast that borrowing this year would reach £175bn.
10. voda 20 augustus 2009 17:27

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    Stijging werkloosheid valt mee
    20 augustus 2009, 17:30 | BNR.nl
    De werkloosheid stijgt maar mondjesmaat, zo blijkt uit cijfers van het CBS. In juli is de werkloosheid uitgekomen 4,9 procent. In een jaar tijd is het aantal werklozen met 78.000 gestegen. Tussen mei en juli van dit jaar zaten gemiddeld 371.000 mensen werkloos thuis. Dat zijn er net zoveel als in de periode tussen april en juni.
    
    Dit blijkt uit cijfers die het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) donderdag heeft gepubliceerd. ,,Het valt mee'', zegt CBS-econoom Michiel Vergeer in een reactie. Maar dat betekent niet dat de pijn nu uit de lucht is, waarschuwt hij. De regeling voor de deeltijd-WW heeft een dempend effect op de cijfers.
    
    In juli is het aantal werkloosheidsuitkeringen wel met 20.000 toegenomen, blijkt uit cijfers van UWV Werkbedrijf. ,,Dat zijn voor een groot deel mensen die in deeltijd-WW zitten'', aldus Vergeer. Die zijn niet terug te vinden in de CBS-cijfers omdat zij niet werkloos zijn en ook niet beschikbaar voor de arbeidsmarkt.
    
    Nog verder oplopen
    In totaal is nu 4,9 procent van de beroepsbevolking werkloos. Een jaar geleden was dat nog 4,0 procent. Het afgelopen halfjaar steeg de werkloosheid gemiddeld met 11.000 per maand. Het Centraal Plan Bureau verwacht dat het aantal werklozen volgend jaar zal oplopen tot 615.000.
    
    Er zijn vooral meer mannen werkloos. Zij nemen driekwart van de toename voor hun rekening, blijkt uit de CBS-cijfers. Bij jongeren (15-24 jaar) kwam de stijging zelfs helemaal voor rekening van de mannen. ,,Dat komt doordat veel meisjes kiezen voor de zorg of het onderwijs'', aldus Vergeer. ,,Dat zijn sectoren die niet gevoelig zijn voor de recessie''
    
    Jongeren
    Het aantal jongeren dat zich als werkloze meldt, is niet groter dan gebruikelijk. Volgens Vergeer blijven jongeren nu meer in het onderwijs hangen ,,Maar het is even afwachten hoe zich dat ontwikkelt.''
    
    Het aantal vacatures dat bij UWV is aangemeld is in een half jaar tijd fors gedaald. In de eerste zeven maanden van dit jaar waren het er 148.000, 19 procent minder dan dezelfde periode in 2008. Werkgevers dienden 36.000 ontslagaanvragen in en dat zijn er 2,5 maal zoveel als in dezelfde periode vorig jaar. De instantie verleende bijna 21.000 ontslagvergunningen, ruim twee maal zoveel als in de eerste zeven maanden van 2008.
    
    
12. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 18:20

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    Van sommige berichen snap je echt niet dat die niet doorkomen in ons financieel nieuws. Soms ben ik echt stomverbaast.
    
    Eentje van heden middag waar ik nog niks over gehoord heb. Zou het dus niet waar zijn wat hier staat?? Lijkt me toch het meest relevante nieuws van vandaag:
    
    FITCH DOWNGRADES LLOYDS, RBS, ING, OTHER EU BANKS’ HYBRIDS ON INCREASED RISK OF COUPON DEFERRAL
    Gr
    Ruud
    
    Hybrid debt attack - for real, from Fitch
    Posted by Tracy Alloway on Aug 20 16:04.
    
    Woosh. That is the sound of a hybrid debt bomb being dropped on the European market, courtesy of ratings agency Fitch: FITCH DOWNGRADES LLOYDS, RBS, ING, OTHER EU BANKS’ HYBRIDS ON INCREASED RISK OF COUPON DEFERRAL
    
    Fitch Ratings-London-20 August 2009:
    Fitch Ratings has downgraded the ratings of hybrid securities at Lloyds Banking Group plc (LBS), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS), ING Group, Dexia Group, ABN Amro, SNS Bank, Fortis Bank Nederland and BPCE and certain related entities. The downgrade reflects increased risk of deferral of interest payments after the European Commission (the “Commission”) clarified its stance on bank hybrid capital, and in particular the application of the concept of “burden-sharing”. A full list of ratings actions is available at the end of this commentary.
    
    The Commission’s recent statements confirm Fitch’s view that government support for banks may not extend to holders of subordinated bank capital (see 4 February 2009 comment “Fitch Sees Elevated Risk of Bank Hybrid Coupon Deferral in 2009″ on www.fitchratings.com). Fitch has already taken significant rating actions on the hybrid capital instruments of ailing banks within the EU and elsewhere. Nevertheless, in the light of the latest Commission statements, Fitch is applying additional guidelines in its ratings of hybrid capital instruments issued by EU financial institutions. These are outlined in a report published today, entitled “Burden Sharing and Bank Hybrid Capital within the EU.” A second report; “UK Banks and State Aid: “A Burden Shared”, which is also published today, discusses the implications for bondholders of UK banks that have received state aid.
    
    In particular, Fitch would highlight that a bank that has received state aid and is subject to a name-specific restructuring process will likely have a hybrid capital rating in the ‘BB’ range or below, with most ratings on Rating Watch Negative (RWN), indicating the possibility of further downgrades. Banks which Fitch believes are subject to significant state aid beyond broad-based confidence building measures will likely have a hybrid capital rating in the ‘B’ range or below, and be on RWN. Fitch will apply these guidelines to banks where a formal state aid process has not yet been established, but where Fitch believes such a process is likely to arise.
    
    “Although the concept of burden-sharing is implicit in EU state-aid rules, Fitch regards that the latest Commission communications on its application to hybrid capital to be a significant clarification,” says Gerry Rawcliffe, Managing Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions rating group.
    
    As well as the implications for coupon deferral under “burden-sharing,” the possibility of asset sales, branch closures, commitments to capping market share and pricing have the potential to be a material issue for banks in receipt of state aid.
    
    “In Fitch’s view, the capacity for the Commission to materially influence both the capital remuneration policy and the future shape of state-aided banks should not be under-estimated,” says Rawcliffe.
    
    In Fitch’s view, dated subordinated debt with no deferral features is unlikely to be affected by the Commission’s “burden-sharing” concept. As such, Fitch will maintain its normal approach to rating such instruments, unless it believes there is heightened risk that a bank will be subject to state intervention under national bank resolution legislation such as the UK’s Banking Act.
    
    Banks that have benefited from broad industry-wide support measures, which themselves have been approved by the Commission, and which have not been subject to a name-specific process, are likely to be unaffected by the EC’s recent statements. Fitch will continue to rate their hybrid capital instruments in line with existing criteria.
    
    This is very similar to the thinking of Moody’s, which announced in June that it too was considering altering its approach to assigning debt capital ratings. The ratings agencies have so far assumed hybrid or subordinated debt has implicit government support — but not not any longer, it seems.
13. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 18:40

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    Fitch cuts European bank hybrid debt ratings
    
    NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings cut its ratings on the subordinated debt of various banks on Thursday, citing an increased risk that regulators will force them to defer interest payments on the bonds.
    
    Fitch downgraded hybrid securities of Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS.L), ING Group (ING.AS), ABN Amro, SNS Bank (SR.AS), Fortis Bank Nederland and BPCE deeper into junk territory and said it may cut them further. To see the full list, click on [ID:nWNA1785]
    
    Moody's Investors Service also cut its ratings on ING's subordinated debt into junk territory on Thursday, citing an increased risk that coupon payments on the bonds will be deferred.
    
    European banks including KBC (KBC.BR) and Anglo Irish Bank ANGLLN.UL have said they will not pay interest on some bonds as regulators force bondholders to share the pain of bailed-out banks. For details, see [ID:nL6162518]
    
    The downgrades reflect "increased risk of deferral of interest payments after the European Commission clarified its stance on bank hybrid capital, and in particular the application of the concept of 'burden-sharing,'" Fitch said in a statement.
    
    Moody's said on Wednesday that it is broadening its review of hybrid bonds sold by European banks and insurers that have state aid packages pending approval before the European Commissions. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Dan Grebler)
    
14. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2009 18:45

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    Het is de schuld van de media..net als het ontstaan van de crisis(LOL)
    Bij ING spreken ze over "junk territory" zoek dat maar ff in het woorden boek op("vuilnisman kan die zak ......?")
15. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 18:57

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    Oke, Moody's wil vandaag niet achterblijven en denkt, kan ik ook.
    Beurs is dicht, dus een perbericht kan er nu wel vanaf.
    Gaat overigens allemaal over uitgegeven waardepapieren, achtergestelde leningen en perferente aandelen en niet over de banken als geheel.
    
    Moody's past rating ING aan
    
    Gepubliceerd: vandaag 18:45
    Update: vandaag 18:47
    
    Kredietbeoordelaar Moody's Investor Service heeft donderdag de ratings verlaagd voor een aantal door ING Groep nv en dochterbedrijven uitgegeven waardepapieren.
    
    De preferente aandelen van ING Groep werden verlaagd naar Ba1 van A3. De kredietbeoordelaar zette ook de achtergestelde leningen van ING Verzekeringen nv terug naar Ba1 van A3.
    
    Verder verlaagde Moody's de ratings voor ING Capital Funding Trust III, naar B1 van A3, en de preferente aandelen van Equitable of Iowa Companies Capital Trust II naar Ba1 van Baa1.
    
    Naast bovenstaande effecten, is ook een reeks achtergestelde perpetuele leningen van ING Groep op de lijst 'onder herziening' gezet voor mogelijke verlaging van de kredietstatus.
    
    De kans is volgens de kredietbeoordelaar toegenomen dat de couponbetaling op de instrumenten wordt uitgesteld, omdat ING Groep hierover in discussie is met de Europese Commissie.
16. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2009 19:00

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    Waardeloos nieuws voor NL-belastingbetalers.
    Er komen bij dit vehikel zeker geen geld-bijstortingen meer, ING wordt losgelaten ....
17. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2009 19:25

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    Al het ING-papier(bijna junk) staat zwaar onder druk, hele lijst zwaartse %-dalers is van dit bedrijf...
    www.wallstreetweb.nl
    
    perps tot -20% bij bovengem. omzetten ...
18. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2009 19:32

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    quote:

    paulta schreef:

    Waardeloos nieuws voor NL-belastingbetalers.
    Er komen bij dit vehikel zeker geen geld-bijstortingen meer, ING wordt losgelaten ....
    

    Heeft uiteraard niets met de gang van zaken bij ING zelf te maken (maar alleen met regeltjes van EC) en zeker niet nadelig voor belastingbetaler. Want er blijft meer geld binnen bij ING om rente voor Wouter te betalen. En ING zal proberen zo snel mogelijk van die staatssteun af te komen.
19. Ruud100 20 augustus 2009 23:42

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    Mortgage delinquencies hit record high in Q2
    AP
    
    WASHINGTON – With the recession throwing thousands of people out of work daily, more than 13 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage have fallen behind on their payments or are in foreclosure.
    
    The record-high numbers released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association are being driven by borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgages, rather than the shady subprime loans with adjustable rates that kicked off the mortgage crisis. As of June, more than 4 percent of all borrowers were in foreclosure, while about 9 percent had missed at least one payment.
    
    And the layoffs keep coming. Lockheed Martin Corp. said this week it's handing out about 800 pink slips in its space systems division, and audio conferencing company Polycom Inc. said it will cut about 80 positions.
    
    New jobless claims rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 576,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. While the recession, measured by the nation's total economic output, is likely over, most economists expect layoffs and foreclosures to keep rising for many months as companies remain in cost-cutting mode.
    
    "Their confidence has been shattered," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight. "They are going to be very conservative. They don't want to be blind-sided by a false dawn economy."
    
    Nee Salam, 56, lost his engineering job at an automotive electronics supplier south of Atlanta more than a year ago. At the time, he said, "I was thinking the job market was going to change right away." But it hasn't.
    
    Since then, he's been working as a consultant, earning less than half his old salary of $115,000. His wife has been cleaning houses to keep the family afloat.
    
    But after draining their savings and retirement accounts, the couple have missed four payments on their $636,000 mortgage. Their request for a loan modification from OneWest Bank (formerly failed IndyMac Bank) was denied because the couple's income was too low. A OneWest representative declined comment.
    
    As banks unload foreclosed properties at deep discounts, they are attracting homebuyers back into the market. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors will release July home sales data, and economists expect it to show the fourth-straight monthly sales increase.
    
    While there have been signs that prices are stabilizing, some economists say that's a temporary respite. "We don't think we've seen a bottom yet in home prices because of the foreclosure problem," said Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital.
    
    The worst of the trouble is still concentrated in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which accounted for 44 percent of new foreclosures in the country. Nearly 12 percent of all loans in Florida were in foreclosure, the highest in the country, followed by Nevada at 9 percent.
    
    Loan delinquencies among borrowers with prime, fixed-rate mortgages grew from the first quarter to the second in all 50 states, with the biggest jumps in Wisconsin, Illinois, Utah and West Virginia.
    
    President Barack Obama has pledged to fight the problem, but its foreclosure prevention program, known as "Making Home Affordable," is off to a disappointing start. As of July, only about 10 percent of eligible borrowers had signed up.
    
    When homeowners don't have much income left, there's little that can be done to help. Cindy Kennedy, 44, ran a successful cleaning business in Allentown, Pa., for seven years. But she lost most of her customers once the recession hit.
    
    Kennedy paid more than $1,700 to a California company that promised to help modify her mortgage. But the company stopped returning her calls in June, and she suspects she has been scammed.
    
    She and her longtime companion stopped paying on their $840-a-month mortgage in February and their house has gone into foreclosure. They attended a mediation conference in county court Wednesday with their lender but are not optimistic about saving their home.
    
    Now making $120 a week as a part-time supermarket cashier, Kennedy says she commiserates with her co-workers, some of whom are also facing foreclosure.
    
    "We talk about it and laugh," she said. "It's not really a funny situation, but sometimes you have to laugh to keep your sanity, so you don't make yourself nuts."
20. [verwijderd] 21 augustus 2009 08:29

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    De overheid strooit met geld,de beurzen herstellen een beetje,cijfers worden gemanipuleerd,en alles lijkt goed te gaan....
    
    Ik ben zelf werkzaam in de metaalsector als programmeur.
    Ik werk voor diverse bedrijven en sectoren.
    (olie,scheepsvaart en machine onderdelen)
    
    Een kleine omschrijving hoe het in de metaalsector gaat:
    
    Vorig jaar: iets mindere omzetten.
    Eerste kwartaal -30% t.o.v. vorig jaar
    Tweede twartaal -30% t.o.v. vorig jaar (inderdaad een stabilisatie van de omzet)
    
    Vooruitzichten derde kwartaal -70% t.o.v. vorig jaar, alle lopende orders zijn klaar,nieuwe opdrachten bliven uit,misschien volgend jaar weer, zeggen de meeste klanten.
    
    Bij veel bedrijven waar ik voor werk,werken ze al op halve kracht,en machines in die sector zijn behoorlijk duur en gefinacieerd,dus de problemen stapelen zich op....
    
    Dus mijn conclusie is:
    In de echte economie waar het geld verdiend moet worden,gaat het bijzonder slecht.
    
    De overheden geven zeer veel geld van de burger uit, dit moet met rente terug betaald worden dus moet de economie nog harder gaan groeien.
    
    Dit kan alleen als we veel meer gaan verdienen,maar ja het bedrijfsleven heeft het moeilijk en wil juist op de lonen gaan besparen.
    
    Een pad stelling op dit moment.....
    
    
21. [verwijderd] 21 augustus 2009 09:24

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    www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601...