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gold and asian reserves

1. __AQR__ 2 februari 2004 16:59

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   business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/story...,4582,106823,00.html
   
   Business Times - 02 Feb 2004
   
   Japan stuns markets with gold remarks
   
   Any move to switch reserves from US$ will be far-reaching
   
   By ANTHONY ROWLEY
   IN TOKYO
   
   FOREIGN exchange and commodity markets have been 'set alight' - as one London dealer put it last week - by news that Japan may consider switching part of its massive reserves into gold.
   
   Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki had said in a prepared response to a parliamentary question that Japan may look at bringing its modest gold reserves more into line with much higher levels elsewhere.
   
   This has provoked speculation that other Asian nations could follow suit - with potentially huge implications for the international monetary system - and is certain to be a focus of attention at the G7 finance ministers meeting in Florida, where Mr Tanigaki will represent Japan.
   
   Should Japan switch into gold, the impact on the dollar could be 'severe', a highly placed source in Tokyo told BT.
   
   It could also prove to be 'the biggest story in the official sector gold' for many years, according to UBS Investment Bank, a major dealer in gold.
   
   Moreover, diversification of part of Asia's near US$2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves has enormous implications not only for the dollar and gold, but also for the US Treasury market, because Japan and China are by far the biggest foreign holders of bonds.
   
   There was speculation after Mr Tanigaki's statement that he may simply have made an 'off-the-cuff' remark, and reaction in the gold market the next day reflected this view. But Japanese ministers are normally given advance notice of parliamentary questions, and their answers are considered in advance.
   
   Mr Tanigaki is likely to come under strong pressure in Florida to clarify Japan's intentions, sources said.
   
   At 765.2 tonnes, Japan's official gold holdings amount to only 1.5 per cent of reserves, according to the World Gold Council in London.
   
   Likewise, at 600 tonnes, China's gold holdings represent only 1.9 per cent of its official reserves. For Asia as a whole, gold holdings of some 2,000 tonnes amount to only 2.1 per cent of total reserves.
   
   In contrast, the US has 59 per cent of its reserves in gold; France, 57 per cent; and Germany, 47 per cent.
   
   'The gold market has been looking for Japan to diversify dollar reserves by adding to gold reserves for many years,' said commodities analyst Kevin Roberts of Investec in London.
   
   'Any clarification from the Finance Ministry should be monitored, given the significant implications should Japan emerge as a large gold buyer.'
   
   For Asian nations in general, increasing gold's share of reserves would 'have a huge impact on the bullion market', HSBC in London said in a commentary.
   
   Mr Tanigaki, a former bureaucrat with the Finance Ministry, said he felt it necessary for Japan to consider diversifying the assets that make up its reserves, which are now mainly in US dollars.
   
   'There are various discussions about the positioning of gold in foreign reserves, even among currency authorities,' he was reported as saying. The issue is sensitive for the gold market, so 'I would like to consider it carefully', he added.
   
   A source told BT there has been no 'official discussion' in Japan concerning diversification of reserves but that 'private' moves may be under way within the government.
   
   Japan and other Asian nations have been alarmed by the sharp fall in the dollar, the source noted.
   
   Japan holds about a third of the US$1 trillion or so of US Treasury securities held outside of the US, and these foreign holdings in turn make up around a third of the US government's total outstanding bond debt.
   
   Copyright © 2004 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 2 februari 2004 19:06

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   Lijkt me totaal irrieel, zoiets als Groen-links dat plotseling de LPF rechts passeert. Politici laten zich echt hun speeltje niet afnemen.
   
   Ik begrijp overigens helemaal niets van de waarde van de Yen. Het overheidstekort is hemelhoog waarbij vgl Bush een conservatieve boekhouder is, en de balansen van bedrijven blijven zeer slecht door alsmaar dalende prijzen van hun bezittingen. Volgens mij wordt de waarde van de Yen zwaar overschat.
3. [verwijderd] 2 februari 2004 22:40

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   Beste R,
   
   ongelooflijk verhaal.
   
   Ik sprak net met Hennie Rijnbeek, IEX goudcolumnist, door sommigen gehaat omdat hij een bear op goud is (maar een bull op platinum) en in mijn bescheiden ogen de jongen die de beste contacten heeft in de hoek van de Centrale Bankiers en hier dus het best over kan oordelen.
   
   Stuur hem een mailtje. Ik hoop dat hij binnenkort weer wat gaat schrijven.
   Ik zou ook niet weten hoe ik dit zou moeten plaatsen.
   Only in Japan?
   
   Groeten,
   
   MCK.
4. __AQR__ 2 februari 2004 22:57

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   • __AQR__

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   Beste Michael,
   
   Ik kreeg dit bericht van 1 van mijn beste en slimste contacten.
   Ik neem het daarom wel serieus.
   Het bericht werd overschaduwd door de fed statements betreffende
   de rente vorige week, daarom (vooralsnog) geen impact op de goudprijs?
   We wachten rustig af.