ifsixwasnine schreef op 26 september 2024 22:17:
[...]
Even if **3D DRAM** becomes ready for the market, **ASML** is unlikely to become obsolete. While 3D DRAM may reduce some reliance on **EUV lithography**, it does not eliminate the need for advanced lithography in the broader semiconductor industry. Here are the reasons why ASML will continue to play a critical role:
### 1. **EUV Lithography's Broader Use**:
- **Logic Chips and Advanced Process Nodes**: EUV technology is not only used for memory chips like DRAM but also for **logic chips** (such as processors) at advanced process nodes (e.g., 5nm, 3nm, and beyond). These chips are essential for AI, smartphones, and high-performance computing, and they still rely heavily on EUV lithography to achieve the necessary precision and density [oai_citation:4,SK Hynix Mulls 'Differentiated' HBM Memory Amid AI Frenzy](https://www.anandtech.com/show/21283/sk-hynix-mulls-differentiated-hbm-memory-amid-ai-frenzy) [oai_citation:3,SK hynix plans $74.6 billion investment to strengthen its memory chip business — hopes for AI business boost | Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/sk-hynix-plans-dollar746-billion-investment-to-strengthen-its-memory-chip-business-hopes-for-ai-business-boost).
- **Foundries and Broad Semiconductor Demand**: Leading foundries like **TSMC** and **Intel** depend on ASML’s EUV machines to push the boundaries of semiconductor scaling. These companies need EUV to continue producing advanced logic chips for various industries, including AI, automotive, and telecommunications.
### 2. **Challenges with 3D DRAM**:
- As discussed, while **3D DRAM** can reduce the die area and may rely less on certain EUV steps, the **technology is not yet mature** for large-scale production. There are still significant challenges in scaling 3D DRAM, particularly in terms of yield, cost, and manufacturing complexity. Even if it reaches the market, the adoption rate may be gradual, and it will coexist with traditional technologies [oai_citation:2,SK hynix plans $74.6 billion investment to strengthen its memory chip business — hopes for AI business boost | Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/sk-hynix-plans-dollar746-billion-investment-to-strengthen-its-memory-chip-business-hopes-for-ai-business-boost).
### 3. **EUV Still Needed in 3D DRAM**:
- **Layer Creation**: Even for 3D DRAM, certain steps, like the creation of **fine patterns for lower layers**, will still require **EUV lithography**. The vertical stacking design may reduce the number of EUV steps, but it won’t eliminate them entirely, meaning there will still be demand for ASML’s machines.
### 4. **Emerging Technologies**:
- Beyond DRAM, ASML is heavily invested in next-generation technologies such as **high-NA EUV lithography**, which will push the limits of semiconductor manufacturing even further. This is essential for maintaining progress in logic chips, which are critical for industries like AI and quantum computing [oai_citation:1,SK Hynix Mulls 'Differentiated' HBM Memory Amid AI Frenzy](https://www.anandtech.com/show/21283/sk-hynix-mulls-differentiated-hbm-memory-amid-ai-frenzy).
In conclusion, even with the potential commercialization of 3D DRAM, **ASML** is far from "history." The broader semiconductor industry still requires its EUV machines for advanced logic and other memory applications.